Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.55 · now $3.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLAR has typically landed between $2.88 and $4.18 — a range of −19.0% to +17.7% from the issuance price $3.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CLAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.48 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.2–$3.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.88–$4.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-25 | −55.1% | −55.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-24 | −54.9% | −54.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-22 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-26 | +51.3% | +0.0% | +60.9% |
| 2015-02-24 | +50.2% | +0.0% | +54.3% |
| 2015-02-17 | +49.8% | −5.0% | +49.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | YATES MICHAEL J | officer | Purchase | 8,800 @ $3.40 | $30K | +28.2% of holding | +10.6% | −6.3% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | YATES MICHAEL J | officer | Purchase | 6,200 @ $3.20 | $20K | +24.8% of holding | +6.8% | −13.9% | 31,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | KANDERS WARREN B | director | Purchase | 89,000 @ $3.23 | $288K | +2.0% of holding | +14.8% | +7.8% | 4,444,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | KANDERS WARREN B | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $3.24 | $648K | +4.8% of holding | +9.8% | +6.8% | 4,355,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | SOKOLOW NICOLAS | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.25 | $65K | +3.4% of holding | +9.8% | +6.8% | 600,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | KANDERS WARREN B | director | Purchase | 10,394 @ $3.48 | $36K | +0.3% of holding | +7.2% | −16.4% | 4,155,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | KANDERS WARREN B | director | Purchase | 1,005 @ $3.50 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | +4.5% | −15.6% | 4,144,932 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | SOKOLOW NICOLAS | director | Purchase | 22,000 @ $4.09 | $90K | +3.9% of holding | −10.9% | −21.6% | 580,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | SOKOLOW NICOLAS | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Werner Roger | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Besca Mark | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ottmann Susan | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | YATES MICHAEL J | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | YATES MICHAEL J | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | YATES MICHAEL J | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Ottmann Susan | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Besca Mark | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | SOKOLOW NICOLAS | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Werner Roger | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | KANDERS WARREN B | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Besca Mark | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.