CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $170.77 · now $170.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CINF has typically landed between $155.21 and $189.30 — a range of −9.1% to +10.8% from the issuance price $170.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($170.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CINF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $170.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$155.21worst · -9.1%$189.3best · +10.8%
  • now $170.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $172.45 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $165.78–$179.12
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $155.21–$189.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-04-14−44.3%−44.3%+0.0%
2020-04-16−40.3%−41.1%+4.0%
2020-02-21−39.5%−39.5%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-09+36.4%+0.0%+46.0%
2009-03-05+35.6%−2.2%+35.6%
2009-03-11+34.9%+0.0%+34.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$28.3B
market cap
$17.50
EPS (TTM)
10.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-27
next earnings
Revenue$12.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.06
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $170.77$157.60$348.54
  • DCF (intrinsic)$335.37
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$286.69
  • Analyst target · range $190.00–$197.00$197.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$170.77

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.5%
n=18
Feb
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
42%
−1.2%
n=19
May
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
89%
+4.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$192$1472026-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $172K — Debbink Dirk J2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Schiff Charles Odell2026-02-11: 1 insider purchase, $163K — Debbink Dirk J2025-12-03: 1 insider purchase, $23K — WILKINS EDWARD SCOTT2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $537K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $154K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $23K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $163K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $172K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Debbink Dirk J — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schiff Charles Odell — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Debbink Dirk J — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WILKINS EDWARD SCOTT — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Debbink Dirk JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $171.64$172K+1.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open62,059Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Schiff Charles OdelldirectorSale7,600 @ $175.40$1.3M−4.2% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open173,455Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Debbink Dirk JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $162.58$163K+1.7% of holding+4.5%−6.2%60,560Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03WILKINS EDWARD SCOTTdirectorPurchase140 @ $163.77$23Kownership Δ n/a−0.9%−5.8%140Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerWithheld for tax17,536127,052Form 4
2026-06-08KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerOption exercise24,221144,588Form 4
2026-06-08KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerOption exercise24,2210Form 4
2026-05-28Fu LuyangofficerOption exercise77411,444Form 4
2026-05-28Fu LuyangofficerWithheld for tax9911,345Form 4
2026-05-28Fu LuyangofficerOption exercise7740Form 4
2026-05-11Schiff Charles OdelldirectorOther acquisition27,122122,911Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerOption exercise95718,438Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerOption exercise48718,925Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax14518,780Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax7418,706Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerOption exercise9570Form 4
2026-05-07Hogan Thomas ChristopherofficerOption exercise4870Form 4
2026-05-05Brown Roger AofficerWithheld for tax4,68564,313Form 4
2026-05-05Brown Roger AofficerOption exercise6,90068,998Form 4
2026-05-05Brown Roger AofficerGift2,50061,813Form 4
2026-05-05Brown Roger AofficerOption exercise6,9002,414Form 4
2026-05-01Sewell Michael JofficerOption exercise36,909148,832Form 4
2026-05-01Sewell Michael JofficerWithheld for tax8,822140,010Form 4
2026-05-01Sewell Michael JofficerOption exercise36,9090Form 4
2026-04-29KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerWithheld for tax18,935120,367Form 4
2026-04-29KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerOption exercise28,156138,736Form 4
2026-04-29Cracas Teresa CofficerWithheld for tax10,32157,443Form 4
2026-04-29Cracas Teresa CofficerOption exercise15,38665,880Form 4
2026-04-29Fu LuyangofficerOption exercise95710,761Form 4
2026-04-29Fu LuyangofficerWithheld for tax14710,670Form 4
2026-04-29Fu LuyangofficerOption exercise9570Form 4
2026-04-29KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerOption exercise28,1560Form 4
2026-04-29Cracas Teresa CofficerOption exercise15,3860Form 4
2026-03-02JOHNSTON STEVEN JdirectorWithheld for tax11,836213,840Form 4
2026-03-02Sewell Michael JofficerWithheld for tax5,914111,923Form 4
2026-03-02Spray Stephen MdirectorWithheld for tax5,80572,731Form 4
2026-03-02KELLINGTON JOHN SofficerWithheld for tax3,861110,580Form 4
2026-03-02Cracas Teresa CofficerWithheld for tax3,36750,494Form 4
2026-03-02SCHAMBOW MARC JONofficerWithheld for tax2,58629,692Form 4
2026-03-02Delaney Angela OsselloofficerWithheld for tax2,55818,470Form 4
2026-03-02Givler Sean MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,53834,343Form 4
2026-03-02Soloria Steven AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax2,41220,121Form 4
2026-03-02Van Den Heuvel Will HofficerWithheld for tax2,34038,410Form 4
2026-03-02Brown Roger AofficerWithheld for tax1,44562,098Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Sheri BiggsHousesale2025-10-052025-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2025-05-142025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2024-07-092024-06-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-09-062023-08-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.