Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.89 · now $10.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CIM has typically landed between $9.15 and $12.49 — a range of −16.0% to +14.7% from the issuance price $10.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,715 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-11-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CIM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.74 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.06–$11.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.15–$12.49
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-24 | −65.7% | −65.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −64.1% | −64.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-09 | −64.0% | −64.0% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +64.7% | +0.0% | +72.3% |
| 2009-03-05 | +49.0% | +0.0% | +49.0% |
| 2008-11-19 | +47.9% | −14.1% | +47.9% |
4,715 overlapping windows · 2007-11-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | CREAGH GERARD | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $13.31 | $166K | +10.0% of holding | −10.3% | −3.5% | 138,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Purchase | 66,000 @ $15.13 | $999K | +66.0% of holding | −4.3% | −1.9% | 166,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $14.91 | $746K | +100.0% of holding | −2.5% | +0.8% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $14.70 | $735K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.1% | +0.2% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | CREAGH GERARD | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 188,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Reilly Brian Patrick | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 106,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Walsh Cynthia B | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 26,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Chavers Kevin Gerald | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 50,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | STILL DEBRA | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 60,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mills Susan | director | Award / grant | 11,263 | 37,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Withheld for tax | 127,168 | 579,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,800 | 200,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,200 | 302,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Sung Miyun | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,165 | 60,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Award / grant | 194,774 | 695,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Sung Miyun | officer | Award / grant | 31,164 | 67,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Award / grant | 54,537 | 247,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Award / grant | 85,701 | 312,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Award / grant | 101,772 | 500,721 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Award / grant | 47,251 | 193,289 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Withheld for tax | 102,926 | 394,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,675 | 145,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Sung Miyun | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,586 | 36,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Chavers Kevin Gerald | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 38,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | STILL DEBRA | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 48,234 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | CREAGH GERARD | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 159,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Walsh Cynthia B | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 14,294 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Mills Susan | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 21,015 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Reilly Brian Patrick | director | Award / grant | 9,685 | 81,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Withheld for tax | 3,623 | 470,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Thakkar Sudhanshu | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,744 | 117,905 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,105 | 163,839 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Sung Miyun | officer | Withheld for tax | 591 | 36,156 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Macdowell Jack Lee Jr | officer | Award / grant | 56,088 | 222,088 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Viswanathan Subramaniam | officer | Award / grant | 48,188 | 156,231 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Kardis Phillip John II | director | Award / grant | 137,680 | 457,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Thakkar Sudhanshu | officer | Award / grant | 39,583 | 116,696 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Sung Miyun | officer | Award / grant | 22,373 | 36,398 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-15 | Thakkar Sudhanshu | officer | Withheld for tax | 357 | 77,114 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.