CIENCiena CorporationTechnology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $356.91 · now $356.91 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CIEN has typically landed between $292.26 and $451.77 — a range of −18.1% to +26.6% from the issuance price $356.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($356.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CIEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $356.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$292.26worst · -18.1%$451.77best · +26.6%
  • now $356.91 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $369.65 (+3.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $334.09–$405.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $292.26–$451.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-03−48.0%−48.0%+0.0%
2008-08-28−46.5%−46.5%+0.0%
2008-08-19−43.9%−43.9%+3.1%
3 best
2025-09-02+62.1%+0.0%+62.1%
2009-03-04+61.2%+0.0%+61.2%
2009-03-03+61.0%+0.0%+63.9%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$55.3B
market cap
$3.00
EPS (TTM)
130.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-03
next earnings
Revenue$4.8B
'20'25
Net income$123M
'20'25
Free cash flow$665M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.58
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $356.91$-27.60$700.19
  • DCF (intrinsic)$22.59
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$102.61
  • Analyst target · range $330.00–$650.00$499.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$356.91

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
63%
+5.6%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
+4.8%
n=19
May
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+8.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$627$872026-09-23: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL2026-09-16: 1 insider sale, $87K — DiPerna Dino2026-09-15: 4 insider sales, $2.3M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, Gage Brodie, DiPerna Dino2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — SMITH GARY B2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — SMITH GARY B, Gage Brodie2026-08-14: 2 insider sales, $3.2M — Graff Marc D., Rothenstein David M2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — SMITH GARY B2026-07-15: 5 insider sales, $3.2M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, Gage Brodie, DiPerna Dino …2026-07-01: 4 insider sales, $3.6M — SMITH GARY B, Phipps Jason, Kosaraju Sheela, Graff Marc D.2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $740K — Cumello Joseph2026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $57K — Graff Marc D.2026-06-15: 3 insider sales, $3.1M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, Gage Brodie2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — SMITH GARY B2026-05-15: 3 insider sales, $3.7M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, Gage Brodie2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — SMITH GARY B2026-04-15: 5 insider sales, $4.4M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, DiPerna Dino, Gage Brodie …2026-04-01: 17 insider sales, $11.1M — Phipps Jason, SMITH GARY B, Kosaraju Sheela …2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $700K — Cumello Joseph2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Gage Brodie2026-03-16: 2 insider sales, $1.9M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — SMITH GARY B2026-02-17: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $784K — SMITH GARY B2026-01-15: 5 insider sales, $7.4M — Phipps Jason, SMITH GARY B, DiPerna Dino, Kosaraju Sheela …2026-01-12: 2 insider sales, $5.4M — Cumello Joseph, GALLAGHER PATRICK2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $548K — Rothenstein David M2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $19.2M — SMITH GARY B2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $421K — Kosaraju Sheela2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — SMITH GARY B2025-12-15: 3 insider sales, $2.6M — NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL, Rothenstein David M, Gage Brodie2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — SMITH GARY B2025-11-17: 4 insider sales, $974K — Rothenstein David M, DiPerna Dino, Gage Brodie …2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — SMITH GARY B2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — SMITH GARY B2025-10-15: 5 insider sales, $1.8M — SMITH GARY B, Rothenstein David M, DiPerna Dino, Gage Brodie …2025-10-01: 3 insider sales, $1.6M — SMITH GARY B, Phipps Jason, Kosaraju Sheela2025-09-26: 1 insider sale, $263K — Cumello Joseph2025-09-24: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Claflin Bruce L.2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.5M2025-09: 6 open-market sales, $3.4M2025-10: 8 open-market sales, $3.3M2025-11: 6 open-market sales, $3.7M2025-12: 5 open-market sales, $5.5M2026-01: 10 open-market sales, $32.9M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-04: 22 open-market sales, $15.5M2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $5.3M2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $5.5M2026-07: 9 open-market sales, $6.8M2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-09: 7 open-market sales, $4.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL — Sale on 2026-09-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Graff Marc D. — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Kosaraju Sheela — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Graff Marc D. — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Cumello Joseph — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Graff Marc D. — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kosaraju Sheela — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cumello Joseph — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kosaraju Sheela — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Cumello Joseph — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GALLAGHER PATRICK — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kosaraju Sheela — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed 7 days after the tradedirector NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rothenstein David M — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DiPerna Dino — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gage Brodie — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH GARY B — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Phipps Jason — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 78 days after the tradeofficer Kosaraju Sheela — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cumello Joseph — Sale on 2025-09-26, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Claflin Bruce L. — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-23NEVENS THOMAS MICHAELdirectorSale3,738 @ $359.04$1.3M−37.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,289Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-16DiPerna DinoofficerSale249 @ $350.00$87K−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,126Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $330.18$975K−1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open240,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-15Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $330.48$826K−1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open177,731Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-15Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $324.86$390K−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open37,207Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-15DiPerna DinoofficerSale249 @ $324.86$81K−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $362.90$1.1M−1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open243,078Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $447.78$1.3M−1.2% of holding−20.9%not yet — horizon still open246,030Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $439.24$527K−3.0% of holding−20.9%not yet — horizon still open38,407Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14Graff Marc D.officerSale4,995 @ $430.72$2.2M−4.4% of holding−19.3%not yet — horizon still open107,519Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $438.10$1.1M−1.4% of holding−19.3%not yet — horizon still open180,231Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-03SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $379.81$1.1M−1.2% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open248,982Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-15SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $421.10$1.2M−1.2% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open251,934Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $420.91$1.1M−1.3% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open182,731Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $449.15$539K−2.9% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open39,607Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15DiPerna DinoofficerSale391 @ $449.15$176K−1.0% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open39,624Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15DiPerna DinoofficerSale391 @ $449.15$176K−1.0% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open40,015Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $468.83$1.4M−1.1% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open254,886Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01Phipps JasonofficerSale2,629 @ $466.20$1.2M−4.0% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open62,382Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01Kosaraju SheelaofficerSale2,013 @ $466.20$938K−2.2% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open88,081Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01Graff Marc D.officerSale126 @ $466.20$59K−0.1% of holding−18.6%not yet — horizon still open126,955Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-26Cumello JosephofficerSale1,586 @ $466.33$740K−3.6% of holding−28.5%not yet — horizon still open42,872Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-24Graff Marc D.officerSale126 @ $449.36$57K−0.1% of holding−16.4%not yet — horizon still open127,081Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $457.02$1.3M−1.1% of holding−15.8%not yet — horizon still open266,605Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $457.07$1.1M−1.3% of holding−15.8%not yet — horizon still open187,581Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $466.10$559K−2.7% of holding−15.8%not yet — horizon still open42,741Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $565.92$1.7M−1.1% of holding−17.4%not yet — horizon still open269,557Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $562.05$1.7M−1.1% of holding−23.9%not yet — horizon still open272,509Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $562.39$1.4M−1.3% of holding−23.9%not yet — horizon still open190,081Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $570.65$685K−2.7% of holding−23.9%not yet — horizon still open43,941Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-01SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $537.74$1.6M−1.1% of holding+11.7%not yet — horizon still open275,461Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-15SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $467.47$1.4M−1.0% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open278,413Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $467.65$1.2M−1.3% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open192,581Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15DiPerna DinoofficerSale1,507 @ $471.79$711K−3.4% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open42,460Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15DiPerna DinoofficerSale1,322 @ $471.79$624K−2.9% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open43,967Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Gage BrodieofficerSale1,200 @ $471.79$566K−2.6% of holding+17.5%not yet — horizon still open45,141Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale3,441 @ $412.24$1.4M−97.9% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open73Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale3,250 @ $408.75$1.3M−3.9% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open79,996Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale3,100 @ $411.23$1.3M−3.9% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open76,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $415.51$1.2M−1.0% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open281,365Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale2,279 @ $413.35$942K−3.1% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open70,676Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale2,100 @ $405.07$851K−2.4% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open84,306Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Kosaraju SheelaofficerSale2,012 @ $401.71$808K−2.1% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open92,107Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale1,708 @ $414.16$707K−2.4% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open68,968Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale1,735 @ $401.58$697K−1.9% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open87,656Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale1,029 @ $416.56$429K−93.8% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open68Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale750 @ $403.90$303K−0.9% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open86,406Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale600 @ $406.45$244K−0.7% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open83,706Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale500 @ $409.49$205K−0.6% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open79,496Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale500 @ $402.82$201K−0.6% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open87,156Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale460 @ $407.48$187K−0.5% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open83,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale400 @ $415.20$166K−0.6% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open68,568Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Phipps JasonofficerSale162 @ $417.07$68K−0.2% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open67,377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27Cumello JosephofficerSale1,773 @ $394.82$700K−3.7% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open46,175Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-24Gage BrodieofficerSale5,000 @ $405.00$2.0M−9.7% of holding+11.7%−35.0%46,341Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $359.53$1.1M−1.0% of holding+25.8%−21.6%293,084Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $345.00$863K−1.3% of holding+25.8%−21.6%197,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $354.64$1.0M−1.0% of holding+14.7%−4.1%296,036Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17SMITH GARY BdirectorSale2,952 @ $299.51$884K−1.0% of holding+30.6%+21.2%298,988Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Rothenstein David MofficerSale2,500 @ $300.20$750K−1.2% of holding+30.6%+21.2%199,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-24NEVENS THOMAS MICHAELdirectorGift2,7973,492Form 4
2026-09-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax3,102234,039Form 4
2026-09-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax2,985237,141Form 4
2026-09-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax1,743232,296Form 4
2026-09-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax937231,359Form 4
2026-09-20Phipps JasonofficerWithheld for tax85960,788Form 4
2026-09-20Rothenstein David MofficerWithheld for tax811176,037Form 4
2026-09-20Phipps JasonofficerWithheld for tax73561,647Form 4
2026-09-20DiPerna DinoofficerWithheld for tax73037,748Form 4
2026-09-20Kosaraju SheelaofficerWithheld for tax69187,234Form 4
2026-09-20Rothenstein David MofficerWithheld for tax679177,052Form 4
2026-09-20Gage BrodieofficerWithheld for tax66935,892Form 4
2026-09-20Cumello JosephofficerWithheld for tax58241,667Form 4
2026-09-20Kosaraju SheelaofficerWithheld for tax54986,685Form 4
2026-09-20Phipps JasonofficerWithheld for tax50360,285Form 4
2026-09-20DiPerna DinoofficerWithheld for tax44438,478Form 4
2026-09-20Gage BrodieofficerWithheld for tax44236,561Form 4
2026-09-20Cumello JosephofficerWithheld for tax44142,431Form 4
2026-09-20Rothenstein David MofficerWithheld for tax436175,601Form 4
2026-09-20DiPerna DinoofficerWithheld for tax42837,320Form 4
2026-09-20Gage BrodieofficerWithheld for tax38835,504Form 4
2026-09-20Cumello JosephofficerWithheld for tax33141,156Form 4
2026-09-20Kosaraju SheelaofficerWithheld for tax33086,355Form 4
2026-09-20Graff Marc D.officerWithheld for tax286107,233Form 4
2026-09-20Phipps JasonofficerWithheld for tax26860,017Form 4
2026-09-20DiPerna DinoofficerWithheld for tax24737,073Form 4
2026-09-20Gage BrodieofficerWithheld for tax23135,273Form 4
2026-09-20Rothenstein David MofficerWithheld for tax220175,381Form 4
2026-09-20DiPerna DinoofficerWithheld for tax20438,922Form 4
2026-09-20Rothenstein David MofficerWithheld for tax204176,848Form 4
2026-09-20Gage BrodieofficerWithheld for tax20437,003Form 4
2026-09-20Kosaraju SheelaofficerWithheld for tax18986,166Form 4
2026-09-20Cumello JosephofficerWithheld for tax18242,249Form 4
2026-09-20Cumello JosephofficerWithheld for tax18041,487Form 4
2026-09-20Hoffman GrantofficerWithheld for tax1706,347Form 4
2026-09-20Kosaraju SheelaofficerWithheld for tax15687,925Form 4
2026-08-01Graff Marc D.officerWithheld for tax14,441112,514Form 4
2026-06-22Hoffman GrantofficerAward / grant6,5176,517Form 4
2026-06-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax3,102260,518Form 4
2026-06-20SMITH GARY BdirectorWithheld for tax2,985263,620Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-15$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2024-11-082021-02-02$1–15K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.