CIA · TickerCove

CIACitizens, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Lifeas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.53 · now $3.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CIA has typically landed between $2.70 and $4.48 — a range of −23.4% to +26.9% from the issuance price $3.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.53 · 1% of range

$3.5 low$6.38 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 21.5%

−23.4%worst (p90)+26.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CIA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.53 (+0.0%)
typical $3.51 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $3.13–$3.89
90% range $2.7–$4.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-04-10	−52.8%	−52.8%	+0.0%
2023-04-06	−52.1%	−52.1%	+0.0%
2023-04-05	−51.1%	−51.1%	+2.0%
3 best
2024-09-19	+79.8%	+0.0%	+79.8%
2024-09-18	+73.5%	+0.0%	+73.5%
2024-09-11	+70.3%	+0.0%	+70.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.5%

n=20

Mar

45%

−0.3%

n=20

Apr

50%

−5.5%

n=20

May

30%

−1.6%

n=20

Jun

50%

+5.5%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.2%

n=20

Aug

55%

+5.6%

n=20

Sep

45%

+1.5%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.5%

n=20

Nov

75%

+3.1%

n=20

Dec

40%

−4.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $3.80	$38K	+912.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	11,096	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	12,000 @ $3.65	$44K	+3.2% of holding	−4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	389,574	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Hoxworth Seth Alan	officer	Purchase	5,376 @ $3.83	$21K	+92.4% of holding	−4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	11,194	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $3.99	$200K	+15.3% of holding	−4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	377,574	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.82	$48K	+3.1% of holding	+20.2%	not yet — horizon still open	327,574	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-30	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $4.70	$235K	+19.4% of holding	+2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	307,599	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25	DAVIS CYNTHIA H	director	Purchase	100 @ $4.53	$453	ownership Δ n/a	+16.0%	not yet — horizon still open	100	Form 4 · filed 26 days after the trade
2026-03-17	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.81	$48K	+5.0% of holding	+7.8%	−39.6%	208,930	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-17	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	19,914 @ $3.33	$66K	+11.1% of holding	+1.6%	+56.9%	198,930	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $3.69	$111K	+20.1% of holding	−12.2%	+42.9%	179,016	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	4,850 @ $3.80	$18K	+3.9% of holding	−12.2%	+42.9%	129,213	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-28	Kinlaw Sheryl L	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $3.59	$9K	+3.7% of holding	−2.2%	+46.4%	69,289	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-08	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.20	$42K	+7.2% of holding	−6.9%	+11.1%	149,016	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	46,340 @ $4.03	$187K	+59.4% of holding	−12.8%	+4.6%	124,363	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	35,000 @ $3.65	$128K	+194.2% of holding	−12.8%	+4.6%	53,023	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	Stenberg Jon	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $3.95	$99K	+47.1% of holding	−12.8%	+4.6%	78,023	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Code L	256	1,096	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Withheld for tax	796	20,204	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	640	12,767	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Option exercise	2,709	0	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,626	0	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Option exercise	2,709	21,000	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,626	13,407	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Option exercise	2,709	21,000	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Option exercise	2,709	21,000	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,626	13,407	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,626	13,407	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,626	13,407	Form 4
2026-08-15	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Option exercise	2,709	21,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Code L	209	18,291	Form 4
2026-07-31	Hoxworth Seth Alan	officer	Code L	105	5,818	Form 4
2026-07-29	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Code L	209	840	Form 4
2026-07-14	Lewis Bryon Matthew	officer	Other acquisition	10,697	10,781	Form 4
2026-07-02	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Code L	168	631	Form 4
2026-07-02	Guerrero Paula L	officer	Code L	168	18,082	Form 4
2026-07-02	Hoxworth Seth Alan	officer	Code L	84	5,713	Form 4
2026-06-17	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carlson Peter M	director	Option exercise	12,012	0	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carlson Peter M	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	Claus Christopher W	director	Option exercise	12,012	0	Form 4
2026-06-17	Claus Christopher W	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	DAVIS CYNTHIA H	director	Option exercise	12,012	0	Form 4
2026-06-17	DAVIS CYNTHIA H	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	TAYLOR MARY	director	Option exercise	12,012	0	Form 4
2026-06-17	TAYLOR MARY	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	MCLAUGHLIN SEAN SAMUEL	director	Award / grant	7,042	7,042	Form 4
2026-06-17	TAYLOR MARY	director	Option exercise	12,012	60,831	Form 4
2026-06-17	Claus Christopher W	director	Option exercise	12,012	84,405	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carlson Peter M	director	Option exercise	12,012	12,012	Form 4
2026-06-17	TAYLOR MARY	director	Option exercise	12,012	60,831	Form 4
2026-06-17	DAVIS CYNTHIA H	director	Option exercise	12,012	58,252	Form 4
2026-06-17	DAVIS CYNTHIA H	director	Option exercise	12,012	58,252	Form 4
2026-06-17	Claus Christopher W	director	Option exercise	12,012	84,405	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carlson Peter M	director	Option exercise	12,012	12,012	Form 4
2026-05-29	Davis Jerry	director	Code L	380	74,985	Form 4
2026-05-29	HARWOOD MICHAEL PHILIP	director	Code L	190	463	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i