Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.65 · now $18.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHRN has typically landed between $13.47 and $31.56 — a range of −27.8% to +69.2% from the issuance price $18.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
90 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CHRN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.81 (+11.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.38–$25.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.47–$31.56
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-15 | −30.4% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-03 | −26.2% | −26.2% | +2.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | −25.0% | −29.4% | +10.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-09 | +94.1% | +0.0% | +94.1% |
| 2026-05-05 | +76.7% | +0.0% | +76.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | +74.7% | +0.0% | +74.7% |
90 overlapping windows · 2026-04-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Wong Jerome | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 364,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Jegannathan Rajasekar | officer | Award / grant | 1,400,000 | 1,402,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Chen Ying Cenly | director | Award / grant | 2,800,000 | 2,800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Schaap Andrew Cordell | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Nottenburg Richard N | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Davis Scott G. | director | Award / grant | 109,357 | 188,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Benson Ella G. | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MILLER DOUGLAS S | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | CLANCY WILLIAM M | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Cummins Wes | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Wong Jerome | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 64,771 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.