CHRD · TickerCove

CHRDChord Energy CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $147.03 · now $147.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHRD has typically landed between $127.34 and $172.89 — a range of −13.4% to +17.6% from the issuance price $147.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,439 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($147.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$147.03 · 87% of range

$82.2 low$157 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 12.5%

−13.4%worst (p90)+17.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CHRD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $147.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $147.03 (+0.0%)
typical $149.41 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $140.23–$158.58
90% range $127.34–$172.89

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,439 windows spanning 2020-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-06-09	−32.6%	−35.0%	+0.2%
2022-06-03	−30.7%	−30.7%	+8.0%
2022-06-10	−30.2%	−35.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-29	+54.8%	+0.0%	+54.8%
2021-01-27	+52.0%	+0.0%	+53.2%
2021-01-26	+51.8%	+0.0%	+53.4%

1,439 overlapping windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+1.7%

n=6

Feb

67%

+9.9%

n=6

Mar

83%

+10.9%

n=6

Apr

50%

+1.5%

n=6

May

83%

+6.5%

n=6

Jun

50%

−2.9%

n=6

Jul

83%

+9.4%

n=6

Aug

67%

+0.6%

n=6

Sep

33%

−1.7%

n=6

Oct

60%

+4.5%

n=5

Nov

60%

+1.9%

n=5

Dec

50%

−0.7%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	McKinney Samantha	director	Sale	6,250 @ $149.74	$936K	−36.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,780	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	McKinney Samantha	director	Sale	3,500 @ $150.30	$526K	−32.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,280	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	Brown Daniel E	director	Sale	656 @ $150.12	$98K	−0.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	178,659	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Brown Daniel E	director	Sale	6,120 @ $150.65	$922K	−3.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	186,243	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Brown Daniel E	director	Sale	4,102 @ $151.66	$622K	−2.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	182,141	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Brown Daniel E	director	Sale	2,826 @ $152.34	$431K	−1.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	179,315	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	4,019 @ $140.00	$563K	−22.9% of holding	+10.7%	not yet — horizon still open	13,560	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	McKinney Samantha	director	Sale	1,100 @ $137.08	$151K	−6.1% of holding	+9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	17,030	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	McKinney Samantha	director	Sale	1,100 @ $135.56	$149K	−5.7% of holding	+9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	18,130	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Brooks Douglas E	director	Sale	8,000 @ $133.14	$1.1M	−42.8% of holding	+13.3%	not yet — horizon still open	10,705	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-23	Lou Michael H	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $140.42	$1.4M	−12.1% of holding	+2.7%	not yet — horizon still open	72,699	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Henke Darrin J.	officer	Sale	1,276 @ $145.97	$186K	−5.7% of holding	−15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	21,157	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-11	Brooks Douglas E	director	Sale	1,500 @ $138.57	$208K	−7.4% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	18,705	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08	Brooks Douglas E	director	Sale	3,500 @ $136.71	$478K	−14.8% of holding	−0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	20,205	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07	Brooks Douglas E	director	Sale	3,000 @ $137.79	$413K	−11.2% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	23,705	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13	Robuck Richard N	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $121.75	$609K	−14.7% of holding	−0.5%	+8.1%	29,101	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12	Lou Michael H	officer	Sale	14,503 @ $125.44	$1.8M	−14.8% of holding	+6.3%	+9.3%	83,196	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12	Lou Michael H	officer	Sale	497 @ $126.28	$63K	−0.6% of holding	+6.3%	+9.3%	82,699	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Brooks Douglas E	director	Sale	2,126 @ $120.28	$256K	−7.8% of holding	+22.7%	+7.8%	25,181	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Kroll Lara J	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $113.66	$568K	−35.9% of holding	+26.6%	+23.9%	8,921	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	1,801 @ $114.36	$206K	−8.2% of holding	+26.6%	+23.9%	20,188	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	McKinney Samantha	director	Purchase	1,250 @ $85.50	$107K	+7.6% of holding	+12.5%	+55.9%	17,706	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	3,019 @ $105.43	$318K	−17.1% of holding	−6.7%	−6.7%	14,650	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $101.64	$102K	−5.4% of holding	−1.7%	−4.4%	17,669	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	3,091 @ $94.10	$291K	−12.7% of holding	−0.6%	−25.6%	21,277	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $116.35	$116K	−4.9% of holding	+9.9%	−6.9%	19,488	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $121.27	$121K	−4.7% of holding	+7.4%	−12.4%	20,488	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

130 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-01	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Withheld for tax	2,609	17,579	Form 4
2026-06-15	Dundas Ian C	director	Gift	72,171	1,564	Form 4
2026-04-29	Foulkes Hilary A	director	Award / grant	1,524	5,728	Form 4
2026-04-29	Taylor Anne	director	Award / grant	1,524	14,830	Form 4
2026-04-29	Brooks Douglas E	director	Award / grant	1,524	26,705	Form 4
2026-04-29	McCarthy Kevin S	director	Award / grant	1,524	22,047	Form 4
2026-04-29	Polzin Ward	director	Award / grant	1,524	4,412	Form 4
2026-04-29	Woung-Chapman Marguerite	director	Award / grant	1,524	10,646	Form 4
2026-04-29	Brooks Douglas E	director	Award / grant	1,524	26,705	Form 4
2026-04-29	Polzin Ward	director	Award / grant	1,524	4,412	Form 4
2026-04-29	CUNNINGHAM SUSAN M	director	Award / grant	2,134	16,575	Form 4
2026-04-29	CUNNINGHAM SUSAN M	director	Award / grant	2,134	16,575	Form 4
2026-04-29	McCarthy Kevin S	director	Award / grant	1,524	22,047	Form 4
2026-04-29	Sheets Jeffrey Wayne	director	Award / grant	1,524	7,672	Form 4
2026-04-29	Taylor Anne	director	Award / grant	1,524	14,830	Form 4
2026-04-29	McKinney Samantha	director	Award / grant	1,524	19,230	Form 4
2026-04-29	Dundas Ian C	director	Award / grant	1,524	73,735	Form 4
2026-04-29	Foulkes Hilary A	director	Award / grant	1,524	5,728	Form 4
2026-04-29	Sheets Jeffrey Wayne	director	Award / grant	1,524	7,672	Form 4
2026-04-29	Dundas Ian C	director	Award / grant	1,524	73,735	Form 4
2026-04-29	McKinney Samantha	director	Award / grant	1,524	19,230	Form 4
2026-04-29	Woung-Chapman Marguerite	director	Award / grant	1,524	10,646	Form 4
2026-03-04	Robuck Richard N	officer	Withheld for tax	560	34,101	Form 4
2026-02-20	Brown Daniel E	director	Withheld for tax	1,353	192,363	Form 4
2026-02-20	Lou Michael H	officer	Withheld for tax	679	97,699	Form 4
2026-02-20	Henke Darrin J.	officer	Withheld for tax	642	22,433	Form 4
2026-02-20	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Withheld for tax	509	21,989	Form 4
2026-02-20	Kroll Lara J	officer	Withheld for tax	193	13,921	Form 4
2026-02-01	Henke Darrin J.	officer	Withheld for tax	215	23,075	Form 4
2026-01-23	Lou Michael H	officer	Award / grant	2,963	11,724	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kroll Lara J	officer	Award / grant	3,170	14,114	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kroll Lara J	officer	Award / grant	634	1,527	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kroll Lara J	officer	Award / grant	634	2,161	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Award / grant	8,642	22,498	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Award / grant	2,700	6,192	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kinney Shannon Browning	officer	Award / grant	2,160	8,352	Form 4
2026-01-23	Lou Michael H	officer	Award / grant	11,852	98,378	Form 4
2026-01-23	Lou Michael H	officer	Award / grant	3,704	8,761	Form 4
2026-01-23	Robuck Richard N	officer	Award / grant	11,076	34,661	Form 4
2026-01-23	Robuck Richard N	officer	Award / grant	3,461	7,819	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i