Issued 2026-09-16 at $137.69 · now $137.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHKP has typically landed between $122.63 and $151.54 — a range of −10.9% to +10.1% from the issuance price $137.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($137.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CHKP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $137.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $137.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $139.3 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $133.23–$145.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $122.63–$151.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-11 | −30.4% | −30.4% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-16 | −28.7% | −28.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −27.8% | −27.8% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-12 | +28.0% | +0.0% | +30.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | +23.6% | +0.0% | +23.6% |
| 2022-01-27 | +23.4% | +0.0% | +23.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Seddik Sherif | officer | Sale | 10,272 @ $123.59 | $1.3M | −29.4% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Golan Roei | officer | Sale | 9,451 @ $123.76 | $1.2M | −23.7% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Kremer Nataly | officer | Sale | 665 @ $123.64 | $82K | −2.9% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Golan Roei | officer | Sale | 409 @ $123.50 | $51K | −1.0% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Shavit Shenhav Tal | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $123.07 | $3.1M | −86.2% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,008 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | UNGERMAN JERRY T | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $122.55 | $3.1M | −60.7% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,167 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Chelouche Yoav | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $140.28 | $3.5M | −86.2% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | SHWED GIL | director | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Zafrir Nadiv | director | Award / grant | 122,958 | 122,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chelouche Yoav | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | UNGERMAN JERRY T | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gruber Dafna | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Shavit Shenhav Tal | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Ozer-Armon Tzipi | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Smith Jill D. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Smith Jill D. | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 4,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chelouche Yoav | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 5,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Ozer-Armon Tzipi | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Shavit Shenhav Tal | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 5,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Zafrir Nadiv | director | Award / grant | 44,812 | 101,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | UNGERMAN JERRY T | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 17,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gruber Dafna | director | Award / grant | 1,120 | 3,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Zafrir Nadiv | director | Other acquisition | 956 | 56,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Seddik Sherif | officer | Other acquisition | 801 | 34,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Kremer Nataly | officer | Other acquisition | 665 | 23,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Golan Roei | officer | Other acquisition | 409 | 40,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | SHWED GIL | director | Other acquisition | 17 | 24,867,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Golan Roei | officer | Award / grant | 282 | 39,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Golan Roei | officer | Award / grant | 282 | 39,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Seddik Sherif | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,536 | 34,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Seddik Sherif | officer | Withheld for tax | 770 | 34,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Seddik Sherif | officer | Award / grant | 6,147 | 36,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | UNGERMAN JERRY T | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Shavit Shenhav Tal | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Chelouche Yoav | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | SHWED GIL | director | Gift | 3,000 | 24,867,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | SHWED GIL | director | Gift | 3,000 | 24,867,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Golan Roei | officer | Award / grant | 658 | 39,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Golan Roei | officer | Award / grant | 658 | 39,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Kremer Nataly | officer | Award / grant | 658 | 22,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Kremer Nataly | officer | Award / grant | 658 | 22,532 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.