CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodgingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $98.19 · now $98.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHH has typically landed between $87.15 and $109.54 — a range of −11.2% to +11.6% from the issuance price $98.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($98.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CHH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $98.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$87.15worst · -11.2%$109.54best · +11.6%
  • now $98.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $97.78 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.72–$102.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.15–$109.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−50.1%−50.1%+0.0%
2020-02-18−48.5%−48.5%+2.4%
2020-02-19−48.3%−49.8%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-21+40.0%+0.0%+40.0%
2008-11-20+39.8%+0.0%+39.8%
2008-12-04+36.4%+0.0%+37.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.6%
n=20
May
50%
−1.4%
n=20
Jun
45%
−1.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+1.5%
n=20
Aug
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.4%
n=20
Oct
70%
+3.4%
n=20
Nov
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$123$842026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $541K — JEWS WILLIAM L2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $230K — Oaksmith Scott E2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $220K — Oaksmith Scott E2026-05-26: 4 insider sales, $2.6M — Dragisich Dominic …2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $160K — Oaksmith Scott E2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $60K — Oaksmith Scott E2026-02-02: 4 insider sales, $821K — WU Simone …2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $821K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $220K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $450K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $541K↑ buys↓ salesdirector JEWS WILLIAM L — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Oaksmith Scott E — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Oaksmith Scott E — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dragisich Dominic — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dragisich Dominic — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dragisich Dominic — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dragisich Dominic — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Oaksmith Scott E — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Oaksmith Scott E — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WU Simone — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WU Simone — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WU Simone — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WU Simone — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18JEWS WILLIAM LdirectorSale5,057 @ $106.98$541K−17.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open23,987Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16Oaksmith Scott EofficerSale2,000 @ $115.00$230K−5.7% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open33,172Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Oaksmith Scott EofficerSale2,000 @ $110.00$220K−5.4% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open35,172Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorSale13,521 @ $114.65$1.6M−13.9% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open83,579Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorSale5,024 @ $113.56$571K−4.9% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open97,100Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorSale2,104 @ $112.50$237K−2.0% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open102,124Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorSale1,972 @ $115.15$227K−2.4% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open81,607Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18Oaksmith Scott EofficerSale1,603 @ $100.00$160K−4.1% of holding+15.2%not yet — horizon still open37,172Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Oaksmith Scott EofficerSale600 @ $100.07$60K−1.5% of holding+14.8%−13.2%38,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02WU SimonedirectorSale4,234 @ $101.01$428K−7.4% of holding+4.1%−4.2%52,649Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02WU SimonedirectorSale2,446 @ $101.63$249K−4.6% of holding+4.1%−4.2%50,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02WU SimonedirectorSale1,000 @ $102.72$103K−2.0% of holding+4.1%−4.2%49,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02WU SimonedirectorSale400 @ $103.99$42K−0.8% of holding+4.1%−4.2%48,803Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Dragisich DominicdirectorSale2,500 @ $136.45$341K−3.5% of holding−9.1%−28.6%68,381Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-08Dragisich DominicdirectorSale4,900 @ $132.72$650K−6.5% of holding−7.5%−32.3%70,881Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-03Dragisich DominicdirectorSale100 @ $132.47$13K−0.1% of holding−4.4%−36.4%70,881Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-01Dragisich DominicdirectorSale3,611 @ $128.57$464K−4.8% of holding−4.2%−37.7%72,270Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-01Dragisich DominicdirectorSale1,389 @ $128.45$178K−1.9% of holding−4.2%−37.7%70,881Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19SHAMES ERVIN RdirectorSale2,000 @ $129.56$259K−3.7% of holding−7.5%−42.9%52,212Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Oaksmith Scott EofficerSale1,780 @ $144.40$257K−5.3% of holding−5.2%−30.8%32,014Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Dragisich DominicdirectorSale2,800 @ $148.11$415K−3.9% of holding−6.1%−28.3%69,613Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Dragisich DominicdirectorSale600 @ $148.98$89K−0.9% of holding−6.1%−28.3%69,013Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Dragisich DominicdirectorSale100 @ $149.61$15K−0.1% of holding−6.1%−28.3%68,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Pacious PatrickdirectorWithheld for tax46,122381,168Form 4
2026-08-31Dragisich DominicdirectorAward / grant9,67591,282Form 4
2026-08-15Abdalla NohaofficerWithheld for tax5039,391Form 4
2026-07-15SHAMES ERVIN RdirectorAward / grant11047,834Form 4
2026-07-15Cimerola PatrickofficerAward / grant7533,130Form 4
2026-07-15TAGUE JOHN PdirectorAward / grant6933,854Form 4
2026-07-15Koch Monte JMdirectorAward / grant3522,227Form 4
2026-07-15Maureen SullivandirectorAward / grant2913,622Form 4
2026-07-15Smith GordondirectorAward / grant239,736Form 4
2026-07-15Landsman LizadirectorAward / grant2116,173Form 4
2026-07-15JEWS WILLIAM LdirectorAward / grant1729,044Form 4
2026-07-15Ramirez Sanchez RaulofficerAward / grant924,041Form 4
2026-07-15VIEIRA DONNA FdirectorAward / grant36,702Form 4
2026-06-22Landsman LizadirectorGift1,02816,152Form 4
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorOption exercise12,796104,228Form 4
2026-05-26Dragisich DominicdirectorOption exercise12,7960Form 4
2026-05-21Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition1,5702,908Form 4
2026-05-21SHAMES ERVIN RdirectorAward / grant1,57047,724Form 4
2026-05-21JEWS WILLIAM LdirectorAward / grant1,57029,027Form 4
2026-05-21Koch Monte JMdirectorAward / grant1,57022,191Form 4
2026-05-21Landsman LizadirectorAward / grant1,57017,180Form 4
2026-05-21Smith GordondirectorAward / grant1,5709,713Form 4
2026-05-21Maureen SullivandirectorAward / grant1,57013,592Form 4
2026-05-21TAGUE JOHN PdirectorAward / grant1,57033,785Form 4
2026-05-21VIEIRA DONNA FdirectorAward / grant1,5706,699Form 4
2026-05-20Dragisich DominicdirectorAward / grant4,45491,432Form 4
2026-05-18Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4164,941Form 4
2026-05-18Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4161,338Form 4
2026-05-16Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4234,525Form 4
2026-05-16Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4231,754Form 4
2026-05-15Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4554,102Form 4
2026-05-15Bainum BriandirectorOther acquisition4552,177Form 4
2026-04-15SHAMES ERVIN RdirectorAward / grant9946,154Form 4
2026-04-15Cimerola PatrickofficerAward / grant6833,055Form 4
2026-04-15TAGUE JOHN PdirectorAward / grant6232,215Form 4
2026-04-15Koch Monte JMdirectorAward / grant2720,621Form 4
2026-04-15Maureen SullivandirectorAward / grant2312,022Form 4
2026-04-15Landsman LizadirectorAward / grant1715,610Form 4
2026-04-15JEWS WILLIAM LdirectorAward / grant1527,457Form 4
2026-04-15Smith GordondirectorAward / grant138,143Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.