CHEFThe Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Food Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $109.68 · now $109.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHEF has typically landed between $92.67 and $132.96 — a range of −15.5% to +21.2% from the issuance price $109.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,785 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-07-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($109.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CHEF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $109.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$92.67worst · -15.5%$132.96best · +21.2%
  • now $109.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $112.36 (+2.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $103.89–$120.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $92.67–$132.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,785 windows spanning 2011-07-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−90.3%−90.3%+0.0%
2020-02-19−86.8%−90.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−84.8%−90.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+242.5%+0.0%+256.9%
2020-03-19+146.2%+0.0%+164.9%
2020-03-20+117.5%+0.0%+131.9%

3,785 overlapping windows · 2011-07-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.4%
n=15
Feb
53%
+5.4%
n=15
Mar
40%
−5.0%
n=15
Apr
53%
+4.1%
n=15
May
47%
−0.2%
n=15
Jun
67%
+3.8%
n=15
Jul
53%
−0.9%
n=15
Aug
50%
−0.6%
n=16
Sep
44%
−2.3%
n=16
Oct
60%
+2.0%
n=15
Nov
80%
+12.5%
n=15
Dec
73%
+7.1%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$116$552026-08-14: 10 insider sales, $15.2M — Pappas Christopher, Aldous Alexandros, Polychroni Christina …2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $356K — Polychroni Christina2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $9.8M — Pappas Christopher2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $6.0M — Pappas Christopher2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $217K — Polychroni Christina2026-02-27: 2 insider sales, $2.3M — Aldous Alexandros, Polychroni Christina2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $525K — McCauley Tim2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Leddy James2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.4M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $10.1M2026-08: 10 open-market sales, $15.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Pappas Christopher — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Pappas Christopher — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Polychroni Christina — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Polychroni Christina — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pappas Christopher — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed same daydirector Pappas Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same dayofficer Polychroni Christina — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aldous Alexandros — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Polychroni Christina — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer McCauley Tim — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 8 days after the tradeofficer Leddy James — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Pappas ChristopherdirectorSale50,000 @ $110.47$5.5M−2.3% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open2,155,480Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Pappas ChristopherdirectorSale50,000 @ $109.75$5.5M−2.3% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open2,105,480Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale9,514 @ $110.93$1.1M−17.3% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open45,392Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale8,364 @ $112.16$938K−13.2% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open54,906Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale6,172 @ $113.19$699K−8.9% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open63,270Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale4,213 @ $108.78$458K−10.0% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open37,799Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale3,380 @ $110.16$372K−7.4% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open42,012Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale3,057 @ $107.65$329K−8.1% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open34,742Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Polychroni ChristinaofficerSale2,752 @ $112.00$308K−11.1% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open22,014Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale300 @ $106.93$32K−0.9% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open34,442Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19Polychroni ChristinaofficerSale4,500 @ $79.21$356K−15.4% of holding+21.7%not yet — horizon still open24,642Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Pappas ChristopherdirectorSale125,000 @ $78.00$9.8M−5.4% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open2,189,453Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03Pappas ChristopherdirectorSale95,908 @ $62.53$6.0M−3.8% of holding−2.8%+72.5%2,398,522Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Polychroni ChristinaofficerSale3,317 @ $65.45$217K−9.9% of holding−4.7%+58.5%30,141Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale29,500 @ $71.22$2.1M−29.1% of holding−9.9%+48.3%72,017Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Polychroni ChristinaofficerSale3,084 @ $71.33$220K−8.3% of holding−9.9%+48.3%33,864Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18McCauley TimofficerSale7,500 @ $70.00$525K−14.4% of holding−9.5%+42.3%44,662Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-11-04Leddy JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $62.11$1.4M−14.9% of holding−4.1%+20.4%125,892Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14McCauley TimofficerSale12,500 @ $65.01$813K−18.0% of holding−7.4%−17.4%57,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14McCauley TimofficerSale5,000 @ $65.21$326K−8.8% of holding−7.4%−17.4%52,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Pappas JohndirectorSale81,283 @ $54.07$4.4M−9.5% of holding+4.0%+5.5%773,647Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10Pappas JohndirectorSale18,717 @ $54.70$1.0M−2.4% of holding+4.0%+5.5%754,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Leddy JamesofficerSale4,000 @ $62.00$248K−2.6% of holding−3.7%−5.3%147,892Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale20,620 @ $60.44$1.2M−16.7% of holding−7.4%−8.3%102,748Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Cugine Joseph M.directorSale15,243 @ $62.39$951K−35.5% of holding−7.4%−8.3%27,727Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Aldous AlexandrosofficerSale9,380 @ $61.30$575K−9.1% of holding−7.4%−8.3%93,368Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Cugine Joseph M.directorSale4,757 @ $61.79$294K−10.0% of holding−7.4%−8.3%42,970Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Leddy JamesofficerSale4,000 @ $48.85$195K−2.7% of holding+9.5%+28.8%145,589Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Pappas ChristopherdirectorSale200,000 @ $48.85$9.8M−8.3% of holding+9.9%+30.0%2,206,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Pappas ChristopherdirectorGift21,81924,793Form 4
2026-05-08LEWIS AYLWIN BdirectorAward / grant1,65219,898Form 4
2026-05-08Weinstein Wendy M.directorAward / grant1,6528,240Form 4
2026-05-08Walton DebradirectorAward / grant1,6528,092Form 4
2026-05-08GOLDSTONE STEVEN FdirectorAward / grant1,65237,015Form 4
2026-05-08Owens LesterdirectorAward / grant1,6527,890Form 4
2026-05-08Peretz Richard N.directorAward / grant1,6527,890Form 4
2026-05-04Pappas ChristopherdirectorGift79,9502,314,453Form 4
2026-03-04Pappas ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax4,1192,394,403Form 4
2026-03-04Pappas JohndirectorWithheld for tax2,742769,575Form 4
2026-03-04Leddy JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,822133,235Form 4
2026-03-04Aldous AlexandrosofficerWithheld for tax1,46869,136Form 4
2026-03-04Polychroni ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax99929,142Form 4
2026-03-04McCauley TimofficerWithheld for tax55148,943Form 4
2026-03-03Pappas ChristopherdirectorOption exercise95,9082,494,430Form 4
2026-03-03Pappas ChristopherdirectorOption exercise95,9080Form 4
2026-03-02Pappas ChristopherdirectorGift60,39262,639Form 4
2026-02-28Pappas ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax3,9652,328,886Form 4
2026-02-28Pappas JohndirectorWithheld for tax2,640772,317Form 4
2026-02-28Leddy JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,754135,057Form 4
2026-02-28Aldous AlexandrosofficerWithheld for tax1,41370,604Form 4
2026-02-28McCauley TimofficerWithheld for tax53149,494Form 4
2026-02-28Polychroni ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax40633,458Form 4
2026-02-25Pappas ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax1,6892,332,851Form 4
2026-02-25Pappas JohndirectorWithheld for tax1,292774,957Form 4
2026-02-25Leddy JamesofficerWithheld for tax876136,811Form 4
2026-02-25Aldous AlexandrosofficerWithheld for tax678101,517Form 4
2026-02-25Polychroni ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax51436,948Form 4
2026-02-25McCauley TimofficerWithheld for tax41050,025Form 4
2026-02-24Pappas ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax31,8802,304,020Form 4
2026-02-24Pappas JohndirectorWithheld for tax20,421759,476Form 4
2026-02-24Leddy JamesofficerWithheld for tax4,543128,780Form 4
2026-02-24Aldous AlexandrosofficerWithheld for tax3,30193,881Form 4
2026-02-24McCauley TimofficerWithheld for tax1,92546,238Form 4
2026-02-24Polychroni ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,44630,958Form 4
2026-02-24McCauley TimofficerAward / grant4,19750,435Form 4
2026-02-24Leddy JamesofficerAward / grant7,431133,323Form 4
2026-02-24Leddy JamesofficerAward / grant8,907137,687Form 4
2026-02-24Pappas ChristopherdirectorAward / grant30,5202,334,540Form 4
2026-02-24Pappas JohndirectorAward / grant16,773776,249Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.