CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedConsumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $82.65 · now $82.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHDN has typically landed between $72.74 and $93.69 — a range of −12.0% to +13.4% from the issuance price $82.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($82.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CHDN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $82.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$72.74worst · -12.0%$93.69best · +13.4%
  • now $82.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $81.58 (-1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.01–$86.14
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.74–$93.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−62.8%−62.8%+0.1%
2020-02-19−58.9%−62.9%+0.0%
2020-02-14−55.8%−55.8%+1.3%
3 best
2020-03-18+59.6%+0.0%+70.2%
2008-11-20+49.7%+0.0%+52.4%
2020-05-04+48.8%+0.0%+50.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
−1.7%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
70%
+2.9%
n=20
May
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+0.9%
n=20
Aug
60%
+4.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
−0.3%
n=20
Nov
75%
+4.4%
n=20
Dec
65%
+4.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$118$81↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-07GRISSOM DOUGLAS CdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $92.77$928K+34.6% of holding−0.7%−14.4%38,869Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Rankin Richard AlexdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $92.65$185K+2.1% of holding+0.1%−13.3%99,012Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-02VARGA PAUL CdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $92.97$186K+6.4% of holding−4.5%−14.6%33,260Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30GRISSOM DOUGLAS CdirectorAward / grant38343,006Form 4
2026-04-21GRISSOM DOUGLAS CdirectorAward / grant2,25742,622Form 4
2026-04-21VARGA PAUL CdirectorAward / grant2,25735,557Form 4
2026-04-21Carter Andrea MdirectorAward / grant2,2577,958Form 4
2026-04-21Rankin Richard AlexdirectorAward / grant2,257101,468Form 4
2026-04-21HARRINGTON DANIEL PdirectorAward / grant01,145,352Form 4
2026-04-21HARRINGTON DANIEL PdirectorAward / grant2,257126,086Form 4
2026-04-21Lloyd KaroledirectorAward / grant2,25740,317Form 4
2026-03-31GRISSOM DOUGLAS CdirectorAward / grant38340,365Form 4
2026-03-19Mudd William E.officerAward / grant1,44937,679Form 4
2026-03-19Dall Marcia AdirectorAward / grant1,44933,701Form 4
2026-02-05Carstanjen William C.officerDisposition37,7271,685,609Form 4
2026-02-05Mudd William E.officerDisposition16,648732,067Form 4
2026-02-05Dall Marcia AdirectorWithheld for tax3,944153,843Form 4
2026-02-05Blackwell Bradley K.officerWithheld for tax1,83530,934Form 4
2026-02-05Dall Marcia AdirectorAward / grant12,27632,252Form 4
2026-02-05Blackwell Bradley K.officerAward / grant6,10432,769Form 4
2026-02-05Blackwell Bradley K.officerAward / grant9,07515,164Form 4
2026-02-05Carstanjen William C.officerAward / grant37,7271,723,336Form 4
2026-02-05Carstanjen William C.officerAward / grant64,041183,698Form 4
2026-02-05Mudd William E.officerAward / grant21,34836,230Form 4
2026-02-05Dall Marcia AdirectorAward / grant12,207157,787Form 4
2026-02-05Mudd William E.officerAward / grant16,648748,715Form 4
2026-01-06VARGA PAUL CdirectorAward / grant3933,300Form 4
2026-01-06GRISSOM DOUGLAS CdirectorAward / grant11739,983Form 4
2026-01-06HARRINGTON DANIEL PdirectorAward / grant01,145,352Form 4
2026-01-06HARRINGTON DANIEL PdirectorAward / grant477123,829Form 4
2026-01-06Lloyd KaroledirectorAward / grant6038,060Form 4
2026-01-06Rankin Richard AlexdirectorAward / grant19999,211Form 4
2026-01-06Carter Andrea MdirectorAward / grant175,701Form 4
2025-12-31Carstanjen William C.officerWithheld for tax8,5041,693,722Form 4
2025-12-31Carstanjen William C.officerDisposition8,1131,685,609Form 4
2025-12-31Mudd William E.officerDisposition5,409732,067Form 4
2025-12-31Mudd William E.officerWithheld for tax3,676737,476Form 4
2025-12-31Dall Marcia AdirectorWithheld for tax2,839145,580Form 4
2025-12-31Blackwell Bradley K.officerDisposition2,29926,665Form 4
2025-12-31Adams MaureenofficerWithheld for tax1,43715,121Form 4
2025-12-31Blackwell Bradley K.officerWithheld for tax1,34928,964Form 4
2025-12-31Mudd William E.officerOption exercise13,477741,152Form 4
2025-12-31Mudd William E.officerOption exercise13,47714,882Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.