CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.51 · now $95.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHD has typically landed between $87.72 and $103.58 — a range of −8.2% to +8.5% from the issuance price $95.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CHD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$87.72worst · -8.2%$103.58best · +8.5%
  • now $95.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $96.27 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.83–$99.71
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.72–$103.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−20.5%−21.1%+0.0%
2020-02-13−20.2%−20.2%+1.2%
2020-02-25−19.4%−19.4%+2.3%
3 best
2020-07-01+23.7%−0.1%+23.7%
2020-07-06+23.4%+0.0%+23.7%
2020-07-07+21.2%+0.0%+21.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.1B
market cap
$3.03
EPS (TTM)
32.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$6.2B
'20'25
Net income$737M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.55
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $95.51$70.40$123.56
  • DCF (intrinsic)$119.89
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$74.06
  • Analyst target · range $91.00–$114.00$107.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$95.51

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
79%
+3.4%
n=19
Mar
79%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.2%
n=19
May
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
32%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$105$812026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Linares Carlos G.2026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $511K — Hemsey Rene2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Linares Carlos G.2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $442K — IRWIN BRADLEY C2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR B2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $997K — Linares Carlos G.2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $843K — SHEARER ROBERT K2026-06-10: 2 insider sales, $2.3M — Saligram Ravichandra Krishnamurty, Buchert Brian D2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $565K — Price Penry W2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $704K — Price Penry W2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Vergis Janet S.2025-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $501K — Dierker Richard A2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $1.2M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $704K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $565K2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $5.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Linares Carlos G. — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hemsey Rene — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Linares Carlos G. — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector IRWIN BRADLEY C — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR B — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Linares Carlos G. — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEARER ROBERT K — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Saligram Ravichandra Krishnamurty — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Buchert Brian D — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Price Penry W — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Price Penry W — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Vergis Janet S. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dierker Richard A — Purchase on 2025-08-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Linares Carlos G.officerSale15,375 @ $103.00$1.6M−76.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25Hemsey ReneofficerSale5,000 @ $102.25$511K−38.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,086Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24Linares Carlos G.officerSale15,375 @ $102.00$1.6M−76.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11IRWIN BRADLEY CdirectorSale4,300 @ $102.69$442K−10.8% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open35,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR BdirectorSale13,200 @ $102.83$1.4M−64.9% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open7,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16Linares Carlos G.officerSale10,000 @ $99.71$997K−68.2% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open4,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11SHEARER ROBERT KdirectorSale8,600 @ $97.97$843K−21.9% of holding−3.9%not yet — horizon still open30,678Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Saligram Ravichandra KrishnamurtydirectorSale12,960 @ $98.00$1.3M−48.7% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open13,653Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Buchert Brian DofficerSale10,160 @ $98.14$997K−88.8% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open1,286Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Price Penry WdirectorSale5,960 @ $94.86$565K−16.5% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open30,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Price Penry WdirectorSale7,000 @ $100.58$704K−18.9% of holding−7.4%−20.1%30,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Vergis Janet S.directorSale12,960 @ $101.00$1.3M−43.1% of holding+2.4%−9.2%17,102Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Dierker Richard AdirectorPurchase5,470 @ $91.57$501K+25.2% of holding+0.4%+1.4%27,212Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08McChesney Lee BofficerPurchase5,409 @ $91.38$494Kownership Δ n/a+2.7%−0.6%5,409Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-05Read MichaelofficerPurchase2,000 @ $91.27$183K+36.3% of holding+1.5%+1.2%7,505Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16Hooker CarlenofficerSale6,380 @ $98.30$627K−96.1% of holding−5.3%−26.1%262Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Saligram Ravichandra KrishnamurtydirectorSale14,660 @ $99.00$1.5M−51.6% of holding−5.8%−29.4%13,747Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Hooker CarlenofficerSale5,480 @ $98.75$541K−95.4% of holding−5.8%−29.4%262Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4618,199Form 4
2026-09-15Linares Carlos G.officerAward / grant2818,159Form 4
2026-09-15Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant6715Form 4
2026-09-01Magazine Mark JofficerWithheld for tax763,838Form 4
2026-08-31Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4318,097Form 4
2026-08-31Linares Carlos G.officerAward / grant2618,076Form 4
2026-08-31Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant5707Form 4
2026-08-26Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise15,37520,043Form 4
2026-08-26Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise15,3750Form 4
2026-08-25Hemsey ReneofficerOption exercise5,00013,086Form 4
2026-08-25Hemsey ReneofficerOption exercise5,0000Form 4
2026-08-24Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise15,37520,043Form 4
2026-08-24Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise15,37515,375Form 4
2026-08-14Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4318,054Form 4
2026-08-14Linares Carlos G.officerAward / grant2618,049Form 4
2026-08-14Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant5701Form 4
2026-08-11IRWIN BRADLEY CdirectorOption exercise4,30039,974Form 4
2026-08-11IRWIN BRADLEY CdirectorOption exercise4,3004,300Form 4
2026-08-05WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise13,20020,329Form 4
2026-08-05WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise13,2000Form 4
2026-07-31Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4418,011Form 4
2026-07-31Linares Carlos G.officerAward / grant2618,024Form 4
2026-07-31Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant6696Form 4
2026-07-15Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4517,967Form 4
2026-07-15Linares Carlos G.officerAward / grant2017,997Form 4
2026-07-15Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant6691Form 4
2026-07-01Price Penry WdirectorAward / grant1,47133,321Form 4
2026-07-01Smith Michael RdirectorAward / grant1,2393,030Form 4
2026-07-01Vergis Janet S.directorAward / grant73621,188Form 4
2026-07-01SHEARER ROBERT KdirectorAward / grant61927,278Form 4
2026-07-01CASHAW BRADdirectorAward / grant6195,602Form 4
2026-06-30Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4517,923Form 4
2026-06-30Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant6685Form 4
2026-06-25Raup Charles RofficerWithheld for tax8539,847Form 4
2026-06-16Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise10,00014,668Form 4
2026-06-16Linares Carlos G.officerOption exercise10,00030,750Form 4
2026-06-15Dierker Richard AdirectorAward / grant4417,878Form 4
2026-06-15Buchert Brian DofficerAward / grant6679Form 4
2026-06-11SHEARER ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise8,60039,278Form 4
2026-06-11SHEARER ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise8,6000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousesale2025-11-132025-10-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2025-08-252025-05-05$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2025-08-252025-04-23$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2025-08-252025-03-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.