CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.Real Estate · Real Estate - Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.15 · now $20.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CHCI has typically landed between $16.42 and $26.87 — a range of −18.5% to +33.3% from the issuance price $20.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,993 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CHCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.42worst · -18.5%$26.87best · +33.3%
  • now $20.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.24 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.33–$22.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.42–$26.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,993 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-06-17−89.3%−89.3%+0.0%
2008-06-16−84.3%−84.3%+9.8%
2008-06-13−76.6%−76.6%+19.1%
3 best
2008-08-28+375.0%+0.0%+583.3%
2009-08-17+350.0%+0.0%+350.0%
2010-03-24+340.5%−4.8%+340.5%

4,993 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+13.0%
n=20
Feb
45%
+5.6%
n=20
Mar
55%
+4.7%
n=20
Apr
35%
+8.0%
n=20
May
35%
+0.8%
n=20
Jun
45%
−4.3%
n=20
Jul
40%
−4.4%
n=20
Aug
40%
+15.9%
n=20
Sep
35%
+1.3%
n=20
Oct
45%
−3.4%
n=20
Nov
40%
−4.1%
n=20
Dec
45%
−3.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$21$102026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $11K — Hirsh David Z.2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $185K — Steffan Timothy2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $152K — Steffan Timothy2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $16K — Steffan Timothy2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $54K — Steffan Timothy2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $14K — Steffan Timothy2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $35K — MACCUTCHEON JAMES A2025-08-13: 2 insider sales, $79K — MACCUTCHEON JAMES A, Guthrie Christopher Michael2025-08-12: 3 insider sales, $148K — Steffan Timothy, Guthrie Christopher Michael, MACCUTCHEON JAMES A2025-08: 10 open-market sales, $346K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $152K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $185K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $11K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hirsh David Z. — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 9 days after the tradeofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed same dayofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MACCUTCHEON JAMES A — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MACCUTCHEON JAMES A — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed same dayofficer Guthrie Christopher Michael — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steffan Timothy — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Guthrie Christopher Michael — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MACCUTCHEON JAMES A — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Hirsh David Z.directorPurchase600 @ $18.66$11Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open600Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2026-05-21Steffan TimothyofficerSale13,026 @ $14.23$185K−9.6% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open122,741Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-23Steffan TimothyofficerSale9,740 @ $15.61$152K−7.8% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open115,767Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-20Steffan TimothyofficerSale1,054 @ $15.54$16K−1.1% of holding+0.7%−34.1%91,510Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Steffan TimothyofficerSale3,430 @ $15.66$54K−3.6% of holding+1.5%−33.1%92,564Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Steffan TimothyofficerSale905 @ $14.99$14K−0.9% of holding+1.1%−29.3%95,994Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14MACCUTCHEON JAMES AdirectorSale2,292 @ $15.06$35K−1.6% of holding+2.1%−30.3%141,124Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13MACCUTCHEON JAMES AdirectorSale3,630 @ $15.09$55K−2.5% of holding+11.6%−32.1%143,416Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerSale1,633 @ $15.07$25K−1.4% of holding+11.6%−32.1%117,912Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Steffan TimothyofficerSale4,611 @ $14.79$68K−4.5% of holding+10.1%−31.8%96,899Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerSale4,367 @ $14.82$65K−3.5% of holding+10.1%−31.8%119,545Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12MACCUTCHEON JAMES AdirectorSale1,000 @ $15.04$15K−0.7% of holding+10.1%−31.8%147,046Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11MACCUTCHEON JAMES AdirectorSale25 @ $15.00$375−0.0% of holding+22.8%−31.6%148,046Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06Steffan TimothyofficerSale4,030 @ $10.00$40K−3.8% of holding+7.7%+19.3%101,510Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06GUERNSEY DAVID MdirectorSale3,340 @ $10.00$33K−6.7% of holding+7.7%+19.3%46,527Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-05GUERNSEY DAVID MdirectorSale6,660 @ $10.01$67K−11.8% of holding+11.6%+23.9%49,867Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Steffan TimothyofficerSale4,425 @ $10.00$44K−4.0% of holding+11.6%+23.9%105,540Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04Steffan TimothyofficerSale1,345 @ $10.00$13K−1.2% of holding+12.3%+21.4%109,965Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Steffan TimothyofficerSale200 @ $10.00$2K−0.2% of holding+6.2%+23.0%111,310Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-10Clemente ChristopherdirectorSale4,443 @ $8.18$36K−5.9% of holding−9.1%+38.2%71,395Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-09Demchak Robert PofficerWithheld for tax7942,821Form 4
2026-07-09Demchak Robert PofficerOption exercise1,9693,936Form 4
2026-07-09Demchak Robert PofficerOption exercise1,9693,615Form 4
2026-06-17Holly Thomas JosephdirectorAward / grant76621,681Form 4
2026-06-17Paul David PeterdirectorAward / grant78315,700Form 4
2026-05-21Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise20,000135,767Form 4
2026-05-21Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise20,0000Form 4
2026-03-23Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise15,000125,507Form 4
2026-03-23Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise15,00020,000Form 4
2026-03-18Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax8,424110,507Form 4
2026-03-18Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise15,000118,931Form 4
2026-03-18Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise15,00035,000Form 4
2026-03-17Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,489130,333Form 4
2026-03-17Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax2,489103,931Form 4
2026-03-17Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerAward / grant5,774132,822Form 4
2026-03-17Steffan TimothyofficerAward / grant5,774106,420Form 4
2026-03-11Holly Thomas JosephdirectorAward / grant96920,915Form 4
2026-03-11Paul David PeterdirectorAward / grant99114,917Form 4
2026-01-15Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax614127,048Form 4
2026-01-15Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax614100,646Form 4
2026-01-15Demchak Robert PofficerWithheld for tax3191,646Form 4
2026-01-15Demchak Robert PofficerAward / grant17,65217,652Form 4
2026-01-15Demchak Robert PofficerOption exercise7911,965Form 4
2026-01-15Demchak Robert PofficerOption exercise7912,370Form 4
2026-01-15Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise1,423101,260Form 4
2026-01-15Steffan TimothyofficerAward / grant24,27224,272Form 4
2026-01-15Steffan TimothyofficerOption exercise1,4234,266Form 4
2026-01-15Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerAward / grant17,65217,652Form 4
2026-01-15Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerOption exercise1,4234,266Form 4
2026-01-15Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerOption exercise1,423127,662Form 4
2026-01-15Clemente ChristopherdirectorOption exercise1,73991,021Form 4
2026-01-15Clemente ChristopherdirectorAward / grant5,5165,516Form 4
2026-01-15Clemente ChristopherdirectorOption exercise1,7395,214Form 4
2026-01-11Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax5,402123,671Form 4
2026-01-11Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax1,08199,837Form 4
2026-01-11Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,081126,239Form 4
2026-01-11Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax67798,686Form 4
2026-01-11Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax677125,088Form 4
2026-01-11Steffan TimothyofficerWithheld for tax55797,966Form 4
2026-01-11Guthrie Christopher MichaelofficerWithheld for tax557124,368Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.