Issued 2026-09-25 at $67.15 · now $67.15 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CGON has typically landed between $53.03 and $88.32 — a range of −21.0% to +31.5% from the issuance price $67.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
649 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($67.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $67.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $67.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.89 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $62.17–$73.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.03–$88.32
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-10 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +8.9% |
| 2025-03-07 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +6.8% |
| 2025-03-06 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +5.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +54.8% | +0.0% | +86.3% |
| 2025-08-19 | +51.9% | −0.5% | +51.9% |
| 2025-04-03 | +50.4% | −16.8% | +55.0% |
649 overlapping windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Adjuvant Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec for Treatment of Intermediate Risk NMIBC Following TURBT (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec in High-Risk NMIBC (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-06-16 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Cretostimogene Given in Patients With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer ,Unresponsive to Bacillus-Calmette-Guerin (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $72.98 | $73K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $74.54 | $75K | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $71.17 | $71K | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 24,165 @ $75.16 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Liu Brian Guan-Chyun | director | Purchase | 371,085 @ $66.87 | $24.8M | +24.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,886,236 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $70.00 | $350K | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.00 | $325K | −100.0% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 1,310 @ $60.12 | $79K | −100.0% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 654 @ $60.12 | $39K | −100.0% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $54.50 | $55K | −100.0% of holding | +24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 15,600 @ $73.01 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 1,310 @ $63.50 | $83K | −100.0% of holding | −2.2% | −3.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 654 @ $63.50 | $42K | −100.0% of holding | −2.2% | −3.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 10,491 @ $52.99 | $556K | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | +23.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 654 @ $44.16 | $29K | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | +23.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $41.43 | $41K | −100.0% of holding | −10.3% | +45.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $43.25 | $43K | −100.0% of holding | −12.6% | +51.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 5,903 @ $43.99 | $260K | −100.0% of holding | −10.7% | +49.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.09 | $200K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | +66.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 12,755 @ $39.19 | $500K | −100.0% of holding | +8.3% | +74.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 3,574 @ $38.99 | $139K | −100.0% of holding | +17.0% | +76.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 19,112 @ $39.01 | $746K | −100.0% of holding | +6.2% | +68.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $35.10 | $35K | −100.0% of holding | +23.4% | +96.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Liu Brian Guan-Chyun | director | Purchase | 1,515,151 @ $33.00 | $50.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +30.9% | +92.6% | 1,515,151 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 12,342 @ $30.47 | $376K | −45.7% of holding | +11.2% | +79.9% | 14,673 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 7,465 @ $32.64 | $244K | −70.6% of holding | +11.2% | +79.9% | 3,113 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 4,095 @ $31.42 | $129K | −27.9% of holding | +11.2% | +79.9% | 10,578 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Mulay James | director | Sale | 3,113 @ $33.22 | $103K | −100.0% of holding | +11.2% | +79.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 69,695 @ $27.60 | $1.9M | −2.3% of holding | +34.7% | +104.1% | 2,934,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 30,105 @ $28.24 | $850K | −1.0% of holding | +34.7% | +104.1% | 2,904,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $28.00 | $28K | −100.0% of holding | +34.7% | +104.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 100 @ $28.99 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +34.7% | +104.1% | 2,903,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 100 @ $28.96 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +34.7% | +104.1% | 2,904,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $28.00 | $56K | −100.0% of holding | −12.1% | +75.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $28.00 | $28K | −100.0% of holding | −5.4% | +48.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $30.76 | $31K | −100.0% of holding | −16.3% | +33.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $28.00 | $28K | −100.0% of holding | −22.4% | +12.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $28.61 | $29K | −100.0% of holding | +9.7% | −11.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $29.66 | $30K | −100.0% of holding | −6.1% | −17.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 700,000 @ $28.00 | $19.6M | −18.9% of holding | +0.7% | −11.4% | 3,003,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $28.84 | $29K | −100.0% of holding | +0.7% | −11.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 750 @ $34.40 | $26K | −75.0% of holding | −9.3% | −23.9% | 250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | POST LEONARD E | director | Sale | 250 @ $34.98 | $9K | −100.0% of holding | −9.3% | −23.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-29 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 424,210 @ $35.36 | $15.0M | −42.0% of holding | −0.2% | −36.4% | 586,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-29 | Song Hong Fang | director | Sale | 226,245 @ $35.36 | $8.0M | −5.8% of holding | −0.2% | −36.4% | 3,703,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 103,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 104,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 105,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 24,165 | 24,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 24,165 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 106,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 111,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 1,310 | 1,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 654 | 654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 1,310 | 2,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 654 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | POST LEONARD E | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Graf Susan E | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Rossi Christina | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mulay James | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Tong Victor Edward Jr | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Liu Brian Guan-Chyun | director | Award / grant | 9,354 | 9,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | POST LEONARD E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 116,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 15,600 | 15,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 15,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kasturi Vijay | officer | Award / grant | 79,216 | 79,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | DETORE JAMES M. | officer | Award / grant | 90,574 | 90,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Patterson Joshua F. | officer | Award / grant | 45,266 | 45,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kuan Arthur | director | Award / grant | 271,600 | 271,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Bellete Ambaw | officer | Award / grant | 107,508 | 107,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 1,310 | 1,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 654 | 654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 654 | 654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulay James | director | Option exercise | 1,310 | 3,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Kuan Arthur | director | Option exercise | 64,612 | 200,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Kuan Arthur | director | Withheld for tax | 1,847 | 198,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Kuan Arthur | director | Option exercise | 64,612 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kuan Arthur | director | Option exercise | 102,871 | 139,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kuan Arthur | director | Withheld for tax | 2,871 | 136,151 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.