Issued 2026-08-13 at $76.99 · now $74.71 (2026-08-13, −3.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, CGON has typically landed between $60.37 and $102.22 — a range of −21.6% to +32.8% from the issuance price $76.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
619 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($76.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGON has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $76.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $74.71 (-3.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.81 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.98–$84.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.37–$102.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-10 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +8.9% |
| 2025-03-07 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +6.8% |
| 2025-03-06 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +5.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +54.8% | +0.0% | +86.3% |
| 2025-08-19 | +51.9% | −0.5% | +51.9% |
| 2025-04-03 | +50.4% | −16.8% | +55.0% |
619 overlapping windows · 2024-01-25 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Adjuvant Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec for Treatment of Intermediate Risk NMIBC Following TURBT (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec in High-Risk NMIBC (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-06-16 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Cretostimogene Given in Patients With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer ,Unresponsive to Bacillus-Calmette-Guerin (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.