Issued 2026-09-16 at $60.10 · now $60.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CGNX has typically landed between $50.19 and $70.49 — a range of −16.5% to +17.3% from the issuance price $60.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($60.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGNX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $60.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $60.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.32 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.65–$65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.19–$70.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −36.0% | −36.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-07 | −35.4% | −35.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-13 | +48.1% | −2.3% | +48.1% |
| 2026-01-14 | +46.8% | −3.3% | +46.8% |
| 2026-01-26 | +45.8% | −1.6% | +49.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Feb
65%
+4.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.4%
n=20
May
65%
+3.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
65%
+5.4%
n=20
Aug
55%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Sale | 8,362 @ $63.62 | $532K | −43.4% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $63.61 | $445K | −26.7% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $65.36 | $261K | −17.2% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $63.62 | $254K | −17.2% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $65.36 | $105K | −7.7% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Sale | 8,675 @ $66.32 | $575K | −60.9% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Sale | 5,498 @ $66.32 | $365K | −49.7% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $66.32 | $298K | −44.7% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Sale | 1,579 @ $66.52 | $105K | −28.4% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 25,500 @ $65.56 | $1.7M | −82.9% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,258 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $65.56 | $656K | −65.5% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,258 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 6,100 @ $65.56 | $400K | −53.7% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,258 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $66.80 | $2.0M | −80.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 18,296 @ $67.08 | $1.2M | −79.0% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $66.80 | $1.1M | −69.5% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 15,080 @ $67.08 | $1.0M | −75.6% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 15,080 @ $66.80 | $1.0M | −66.9% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $66.80 | $1.0M | −66.8% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 12,196 @ $66.80 | $815K | −62.0% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 9,600 @ $67.08 | $644K | −66.4% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 6,634 @ $67.08 | $445K | −57.7% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 6,634 @ $66.80 | $443K | −47.0% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 6,400 @ $67.08 | $429K | −56.8% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 4,863 @ $66.73 | $325K | −100.0% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $67.08 | $268K | −45.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 2,212 @ $66.80 | $148K | −29.6% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | PARROTTE DIANNE M | director | Sale | 18,400 @ $54.00 | $994K | −35.5% of holding | −4.0% | +1.0% | 33,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | PARROTTE DIANNE M | director | Sale | 15,600 @ $54.00 | $842K | −31.8% of holding | −4.0% | +1.0% | 33,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | PARROTTE DIANNE M | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $54.00 | $405K | −18.3% of holding | −4.0% | +1.0% | 33,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | PARROTTE DIANNE M | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $54.00 | $135K | −7.0% of holding | −4.0% | +1.0% | 33,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Gerst Carl | officer | Sale | 10,532 @ $55.93 | $589K | −100.0% of holding | −5.5% | −8.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Papadimitriou Angelos | director | Sale | 4,150 @ $55.58 | $231K | −20.4% of holding | −5.5% | −8.5% | 16,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kuechen Joerg | officer | Sale | 35,642 @ $56.03 | $2.0M | −92.9% of holding | −4.5% | −3.3% | 2,729 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kuechen Joerg | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $56.03 | $700K | −82.1% of holding | −4.5% | −3.3% | 2,729 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kuechen Joerg | officer | Sale | 11,029 @ $55.98 | $617K | −80.2% of holding | −4.5% | −3.3% | 2,729 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Gerst Carl | officer | Sale | 3,804 @ $55.99 | $213K | −44.0% of holding | −4.5% | −3.3% | 4,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kuechen Joerg | officer | Sale | 2,729 @ $56.24 | $153K | −100.0% of holding | −4.5% | −3.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Willett Robert | director | Sale | 2,148 @ $59.50 | $128K | −100.0% of holding | −13.0% | −0.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Willett Robert | director | Sale | 173,296 @ $58.39 | $10.1M | −100.0% of holding | −13.6% | −2.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $57.27 | $716K | −85.0% of holding | −13.6% | −2.4% | 2,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Willett Robert | director | Sale | 3,756 @ $58.39 | $219K | −100.0% of holding | −13.6% | −2.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 2,381 @ $56.56 | $135K | −51.8% of holding | −13.6% | −2.4% | 2,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Willett Robert | director | Sale | 6,704 @ $49.51 | $332K | −100.0% of holding | −23.8% | +6.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | DiPalma Sheila Marie | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $45.03 | $90K | −23.3% of holding | −0.4% | +8.8% | 6,582 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Sale | 2,666 @ $45.00 | $120K | −36.7% of holding | +0.2% | +8.1% | 4,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | DiPalma Sheila Marie | officer | Sale | 2,002 @ $45.00 | $90K | −18.9% of holding | +0.2% | +8.1% | 8,582 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kuechen Joerg | officer | Sale | 7,991 @ $32.97 | $263K | −100.0% of holding | −18.8% | +20.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Gerst Carl | officer | Sale | 4,566 @ $33.05 | $151K | −100.0% of holding | −0.4% | +25.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-24 | Gerst Carl | officer | Sale | 6,803 @ $32.73 | $223K | −59.8% of holding | −1.2% | +26.8% | 4,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
251 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 26,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 23,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 23,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 1,600 | 20,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 1,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Moschner Matthew | director | Withheld for tax | 2,218 | 19,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Withheld for tax | 734 | 5,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 4,999 | 21,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 6,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Moschner Matthew | director | Option exercise | 4,999 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 8,675 | 14,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 5,498 | 11,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 4,500 | 10,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 8,675 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 4,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Long Darren Marc | officer | Option exercise | 5,498 | 11,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 25,500 | 30,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 15,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 6,100 | 11,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 25,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 6,100 | 12,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 37,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 17,000 | 24,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 18,296 | 23,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 22,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 15,080 | 22,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 15,080 | 19,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 12,196 | 19,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 9,600 | 14,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 6,400 | 11,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 6,634 | 11,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 6,634 | 14,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 8,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fennell Mark | officer | Option exercise | 15,080 | 22,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MACDONALD LAURA ANN | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.