Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.63 · now $20.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CGEM has typically landed between $16.06 and $27.58 — a range of −22.2% to +33.7% from the issuance price $20.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,407 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGEM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.05 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18–$22.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.06–$27.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,407 windows spanning 2021-01-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-03-11 | −43.4% | −43.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-03-10 | −39.5% | −39.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −34.0% | −34.0% | +4.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-11 | +82.7% | −0.1% | +82.7% |
| 2024-01-05 | +81.6% | +0.0% | +81.6% |
| 2024-01-17 | +77.2% | +0.0% | +82.9% |
1,407 overlapping windows · 2021-01-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+9.7%
n=5
Feb
67%
+7.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−10.0%
n=6
Apr
33%
+4.4%
n=6
May
67%
+3.9%
n=6
Jun
50%
−2.8%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.4%
n=6
Aug
50%
+8.8%
n=6
Sep
0%
−13.3%
n=6
Oct
60%
+8.6%
n=5
Nov
20%
−3.8%
n=5
Dec
20%
−4.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $21.57 | $173K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 158,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $20.26 | $608K | −15.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $17.82 | $143K | −4.7% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 7,800 @ $14.60 | $114K | −4.5% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 200 @ $15.58 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $15.68 | $125K | −4.5% of holding | −1.3% | +28.0% | 170,844 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 1,780 @ $14.14 | $25K | −1.0% of holding | +1.9% | +48.0% | 174,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | AHMED NADIM | director | Sale | 13,515 @ $14.47 | $196K | −3.3% of holding | +2.7% | +48.8% | 390,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Sale | 4,582 @ $14.47 | $66K | −2.8% of holding | +2.7% | +48.8% | 159,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Sale | 3,601 @ $14.47 | $52K | −2.7% of holding | +2.7% | +48.8% | 128,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 3,601 @ $14.47 | $52K | −2.0% of holding | +2.7% | +48.8% | 176,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 1,752 @ $13.99 | $25K | −1.0% of holding | +1.5% | +43.5% | 180,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | AHMED NADIM | director | Sale | 16,381 @ $13.62 | $223K | −3.9% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 404,318 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $14.30 | $114K | −4.2% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 181,977 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Sale | 4,982 @ $13.62 | $68K | −2.9% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 164,550 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Sale | 4,398 @ $13.62 | $60K | −3.4% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 126,380 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 3,742 @ $13.62 | $51K | −2.0% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 181,977 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Sale | 3,742 @ $13.62 | $51K | −2.8% of holding | −1.3% | +47.2% | 131,690 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 416 @ $12.03 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | +21.8% | +59.4% | 128,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $12.30 | $49K | −3.0% of holding | +12.3% | +28.2% | 128,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | AHMED NADIM | director | Sale | 9,922 @ $10.01 | $99K | −2.3% of holding | +19.0% | +77.5% | 420,699 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 1,345 @ $10.01 | $13K | −1.0% of holding | +28.6% | +74.0% | 132,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Sale | 4,632 @ $9.67 | $45K | −2.7% of holding | +14.6% | +68.5% | 169,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Sale | 3,480 @ $9.67 | $34K | −2.5% of holding | +14.6% | +68.5% | 135,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,898 @ $9.67 | $28K | −2.1% of holding | +14.6% | +68.5% | 133,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 995 @ $11.90 | $12K | −0.7% of holding | −3.5% | +24.0% | 136,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,148 @ $12.38 | $27K | −1.5% of holding | −10.4% | +3.0% | 137,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $12.30 | $49K | −2.8% of holding | −24.2% | +5.3% | 138,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 165,667 @ $8.40 | $1.4M | +1.9% of holding | +39.4% | +48.5% | 8,963,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 32,217 @ $7.84 | $253K | +0.4% of holding | +11.4% | +74.3% | 8,797,833 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 150,000 @ $8.86 | $1.3M | +1.7% of holding | −3.9% | +58.2% | 8,765,616 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 51,500 @ $7.94 | $409K | +0.6% of holding | −5.2% | +67.1% | 8,615,616 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,032 @ $7.59 | $114K | +0.2% of holding | +4.7% | +83.9% | 8,564,116 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 277,298 @ $7.36 | $2.0M | +3.4% of holding | −3.8% | +87.0% | 8,549,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-09 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 626,043 @ $6.70 | $4.2M | +8.2% of holding | +2.0% | +99.3% | 8,271,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 556,300 @ $6.46 | $3.6M | +7.8% of holding | +14.4% | +123.9% | 7,645,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | AHMED NADIM | director | Sale | 12,529 @ $8.53 | $107K | −2.8% of holding | −1.5% | −20.0% | 430,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Sale | 4,895 @ $8.53 | $42K | −2.7% of holding | −1.5% | −20.0% | 174,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Sale | 3,756 @ $8.53 | $32K | −2.7% of holding | −1.5% | −20.0% | 136,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 3,756 @ $8.53 | $32K | −2.6% of holding | −1.5% | −20.0% | 142,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $12.51 | $50K | −4.0% of holding | −14.0% | −39.2% | 95,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | AHMED NADIM | director | Sale | 8,400 @ $11.87 | $100K | −3.1% of holding | −15.4% | −42.0% | 263,150 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 4,693 @ $11.41 | $54K | −4.5% of holding | −6.2% | −31.7% | 99,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Sale | 4,632 @ $11.41 | $53K | −3.9% of holding | −6.2% | −31.7% | 114,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Sale | 3,482 @ $11.41 | $40K | −3.7% of holding | −6.2% | −31.7% | 90,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Sale | 3,489 @ $12.52 | $44K | −3.2% of holding | −15.0% | −31.3% | 104,453 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
48 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 166,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 78,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 192,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 82,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 170,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 112,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Award / grant | 2,470 | 130,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 1,541 | 127,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Webster Stephen W | director | Award / grant | 25,319 | 25,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Meek David D. | director | Award / grant | 25,319 | 25,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Rosenberg Anthony | director | Award / grant | 25,319 | 25,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Allen Andrew R | director | Award / grant | 21,781 | 21,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Doyle Mittie | director | Award / grant | 21,781 | 21,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistle Mary | director | Award / grant | 25,319 | 25,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 174,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 116,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 178,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 120,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 189,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 124,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 57,500 | 185,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Savill Corrine | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 137,500 | 137,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 68,750 | 130,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | SUMER JACQUELYN L | officer | Award / grant | 230,000 | 230,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Michaelson Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 115,000 | 115,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | AHMED NADIM | director | Award / grant | 828,000 | 828,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 27 | 62,028 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Allen Andrew R | director | Award / grant | 79,456 | 79,456 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Doyle Mittie | director | Award / grant | 79,456 | 79,456 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Webster Stephen W | director | Award / grant | 38,513 | 38,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Martin Anne-Marie | director | Award / grant | 38,513 | 38,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Meek David D. | director | Award / grant | 38,513 | 38,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Rosenberg Anthony | director | Award / grant | 38,513 | 38,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Ryan David P. | director | Award / grant | 38,513 | 38,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-19 | Savill Corrine | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-19 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-19 | Fenton Mary Kay | officer | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-19 | Jones Jeffrey Alan | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 179,059 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.