Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.39 · now $11.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CGBD has typically landed between $10.32 and $12.42 — a range of −9.4% to +9.0% from the issuance price $11.39.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,306 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-06-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.39 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.56 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.11–$12.01
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.32–$12.42
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −66.3% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −65.1% | −65.1% | +1.4% |
| 2020-03-05 | −62.7% | −64.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-06 | +87.2% | +0.0% | +87.2% |
| 2020-04-03 | +65.7% | −1.9% | +76.3% |
| 2020-04-01 | +54.6% | −11.4% | +59.4% |
2,306 overlapping windows · 2017-06-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 8,633 @ $11.21 | $97K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 4,979 @ $11.18 | $56K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 3,114 @ $11.18 | $35K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 87 @ $11.24 | $978 | −1.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,017 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 1,617 @ $10.97 | $18K | −37.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 3,450 @ $11.22 | $39K | −44.2% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,364 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 1,720 @ $11.21 | $19K | −17.5% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,104 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 885 @ $11.22 | $10K | −16.0% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,631 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Taylor Francis | officer | Purchase | 232 @ $11.22 | $3K | +111.0% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 441 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Chi Alex | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $10.79 | $97K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.7% | −0.3% | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $11.29 | $40K | −26.3% of holding | +4.9% | −1.5% | 9,824 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 901 @ $11.28 | $10K | −14.0% of holding | +4.9% | −1.5% | 5,516 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Hennigan Thomas M | director | Purchase | 4,430 @ $11.26 | $50K | +4.6% of holding | +5.4% | −1.9% | 101,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 7,085 @ $11.87 | $84K | −48.6% of holding | +6.8% | −12.0% | 7,508 | Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Hennigan Thomas M | director | Purchase | 8,400 @ $12.04 | $101K | +9.5% of holding | +5.5% | −12.8% | 96,895 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Joseph Nelson | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $11.84 | $18K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.7% | −9.3% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Hennigan Thomas M | director | Purchase | 7,285 @ $13.75 | $100K | +9.0% of holding | −5.9% | −19.1% | 88,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Nestor John G. | director | Sale | 13,238 @ $13.49 | $179K | −47.6% of holding | −4.0% | −14.4% | 14,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
14 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-20 | Nestor John G. | director | Gift | 1,650 | 27,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Hadley Michael | officer | Award / grant | 12,777 | 18,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Hennigan Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 7,301 | 81,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Pace Linda | director | Award / grant | 14,862 | 57,436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Jenkins Mark David | director | Disposition | 29,724 | 128,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Popov Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 13,376 | 47,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Plouffe Justin | director | Award / grant | 5,944 | 40,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Pace Linda | director | Award / grant | 14,862 | 57,436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Hadley Michael | officer | Award / grant | 12,777 | 18,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Hennigan Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 7,301 | 81,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Jenkins Mark David | director | Disposition | 29,724 | 128,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Popov Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 13,376 | 47,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-27 | Plouffe Justin | director | Award / grant | 5,944 | 40,296 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-04 | Nestor John G. | director | Gift | 1,500 | 26,155 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.