CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.01 · now $40.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CG has typically landed between $33.28 and $47.98 — a range of −16.8% to +19.9% from the issuance price $40.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,580 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.28worst · -16.8%$47.98best · +19.9%
  • now $40.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.92 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.21–$43.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.28–$47.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,580 windows spanning 2012-05-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2020-02-13−43.0%−43.0%+0.0%
2020-02-14−42.9%−42.9%+0.0%
3 best
2016-02-11+45.1%+0.0%+45.1%
2016-02-10+42.9%−1.4%+43.1%
2016-02-09+39.9%+0.0%+45.3%

3,580 overlapping windows · 2012-05-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+5.1%
n=14
Feb
43%
−0.6%
n=14
Mar
43%
−2.6%
n=14
Apr
50%
+1.0%
n=14
May
50%
+1.3%
n=14
Jun
60%
+1.7%
n=15
Jul
87%
+8.9%
n=15
Aug
33%
−4.1%
n=15
Sep
33%
−3.7%
n=15
Oct
50%
+2.4%
n=14
Nov
64%
+4.7%
n=14
Dec
57%
+2.2%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$68$402026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $17.1M — Rubenstein David M.2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $23.3M — Rubenstein David M.2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $35.3M — Rubenstein David M.2025-08-12: 3 insider sales, $13.0M — Ferguson Jeffrey W. …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $19.1M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $35.3M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $23.3M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $17.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Rubenstein David M. — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same daydirector Rubenstein David M. — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rubenstein David M. — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ferguson Jeffrey W. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ferguson Jeffrey W. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ferguson Jeffrey W. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Rubenstein David M.directorSale400,000 @ $42.74$17.1M−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open26,899,644Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-19Rubenstein David M.directorSale500,000 @ $46.68$23.3M−1.8% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open27,399,644Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Rubenstein David M.directorSale625,000 @ $56.55$35.3M−2.2% of holding+8.8%−30.8%27,999,644Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale159,536 @ $64.20$10.2M−16.9% of holding+2.3%−24.6%781,738Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale28,483 @ $64.82$1.8M−3.6% of holding+2.3%−24.6%753,255Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale14,587 @ $63.44$925K−1.5% of holding+2.3%−24.6%941,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale97,394 @ $62.37$6.1M−9.2% of holding+3.1%−15.9%955,861Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale147,658 @ $52.96$7.8M−11.9% of holding−8.3%+14.4%1,095,123Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerSale102,342 @ $53.20$5.4M−7.6% of holding−10.9%+14.1%1,242,781Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Rubenstein David M.directorGift100,00027,299,644Form 4
2026-08-26Jenkins Mark DaviddirectorAward / grant6,2641,415,478Form 4
2026-08-26Andrews Charles Elliott Jr.officerAward / grant304135,668Form 4
2026-08-26Plouffe JustindirectorAward / grant3,769852,461Form 4
2026-08-26Nedelman JeffreyofficerAward / grant6,6151,609,479Form 4
2026-08-26SCHWARTZ HARVEY MdirectorAward / grant19,2405,273,362Form 4
2026-08-26LoBue LindsayofficerAward / grant2,657700,578Form 4
2026-08-26Redett John C.officerAward / grant8,3021,752,000Form 4
2026-08-26Heinzelman Kate ElizabethofficerAward / grant7811,109Form 4
2026-08-01Jenkins Mark DaviddirectorWithheld for tax124,7931,409,214Form 4
2026-08-01Redett John C.officerWithheld for tax124,5581,743,698Form 4
2026-08-01Plouffe JustindirectorWithheld for tax62,533848,692Form 4
2026-08-01Nedelman JeffreyofficerWithheld for tax43,0811,602,864Form 4
2026-08-01LoBue LindsayofficerWithheld for tax18,284697,921Form 4
2026-08-01Andrews Charles Elliott Jr.officerWithheld for tax12,364135,364Form 4
2026-08-01Heinzelman Kate ElizabethofficerAward / grant11,03111,031Form 4
2026-05-28LoBue LindsayofficerAward / grant3,120716,205Form 4
2026-05-28SCHWARTZ HARVEY MdirectorAward / grant20,7435,254,122Form 4
2026-05-28Redett John C.officerAward / grant10,8301,868,256Form 4
2026-05-28Plouffe JustindirectorAward / grant4,077911,225Form 4
2026-05-28Jenkins Mark DaviddirectorAward / grant7,6341,534,007Form 4
2026-05-28Nedelman JeffreyofficerAward / grant7,7331,645,945Form 4
2026-05-28Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerAward / grant1,274783,474Form 4
2026-05-28Andrews Charles Elliott Jr.officerAward / grant409147,728Form 4
2026-05-01ORDAN MARK SdirectorAward / grant4,45030,613Form 4
2026-05-01Rice Derica WdirectorAward / grant2,93336,657Form 4
2026-05-01BESCHLOSS AFSANEH MASHAYEKHIdirectorAward / grant4,45014,689Form 4
2026-05-01WELTERS ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant4,45047,849Form 4
2026-05-01FITT LAWTON WdirectorAward / grant4,45078,093Form 4
2026-05-01FILLER LINDAdirectorAward / grant4,45026,163Form 4
2026-05-01HANCE JAMES H JRdirectorAward / grant4,450316,538Form 4
2026-05-01Cherwoo ShardadirectorAward / grant4,45020,398Form 4
2026-05-01Rice Derica WdirectorAward / grant4,45033,724Form 4
2026-05-01SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant4,45078,093Form 4
2026-05-01ORDAN MARK SdirectorAward / grant4,45026,163Form 4
2026-03-19Rubenstein David M.directorGift100,00027,899,644Form 4
2026-02-20Ferguson Jeffrey W.officerAward / grant1,070782,200Form 4
2026-02-20SCHWARTZ HARVEY MdirectorAward / grant17,4575,233,379Form 4
2026-02-20Redett John C.officerAward / grant9,1141,857,426Form 4
2026-02-20Jenkins Mark DaviddirectorAward / grant6,4241,526,373Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-17$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$50–100K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-04-112025-03-05$15–50K
Shri ThanedarHousesale2023-02-092023-01-23$15–50K
Shri ThanedarHousesale2023-02-092023-01-23$1–15K
Shri ThanedarHousesale2023-02-092023-01-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-07-072022-06-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousesale2021-12-012021-11-18$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2021-11-092021-10-07$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousepurchase2021-11-052021-10-20$50–100K
Dwight EvansHousesale2021-07-092021-05-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.