CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $159.44 · now $159.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CFR has typically landed between $141.64 and $180.09 — a range of −11.2% to +13.0% from the issuance price $159.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($159.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CFR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $159.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$141.64worst · -11.2%$180.09best · +13.0%
  • now $159.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $160.92 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $152.74–$169.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $141.64–$180.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−43.3%−43.3%+0.0%
2020-02-11−42.6%−42.6%+1.3%
3 best
2009-03-06+33.2%+0.0%+35.1%
2020-05-07+32.5%−10.0%+32.5%
2020-10-27+32.1%+0.0%+34.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
75%
+2.0%
n=20
Mar
60%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
70%
+3.9%
n=20
May
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.3%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$170$1172026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $124K — Severyn Carol Jean2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $137K — Berman Bobby2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $43 — Pullin Ericka Lynn2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $89K — Rhodes Coolidge E JR2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $89K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $137K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $124K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Severyn Carol Jean — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Berman Bobby — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Pullin Ericka Lynn — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rhodes Coolidge E JR — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Severyn Carol JeanofficerSale837 @ $148.29$124K−6.2% of holding+5.1%not yet — horizon still open12,712Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30Berman BobbyofficerSale1,000 @ $137.07$137K−3.4% of holding+4.3%+14.3%28,406Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12Pullin Ericka LynnofficerSale0 @ $129.72$43−0.0% of holding+4.6%+4.2%2,024Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-09Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerSale700 @ $127.00$89K−15.6% of holding+5.3%+8.4%3,795Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Henson Matthew BradleyofficerPurchase1,870 @ $16.93$32K+50.9% of holding−2.3%−21.2%5,545Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-31Bracher PaulofficerSale11,500 @ $139.45$1.6M−10.0% of holding−1.3%−14.1%102,946Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-29Rutherford Linda B.directorAward / grant6303,458Form 4
2026-04-29Pierce Joseph A.directorAward / grant6302,860Form 4
2026-04-29John Howard WillomedirectorAward / grant6302,860Form 4
2026-04-29Dawson Samuel G.directorAward / grant6306,551Form 4
2026-04-29Engates John TdirectorAward / grant6301,360Form 4
2026-04-29Rummel Jeffrey M.directorAward / grant630630Form 4
2026-04-29Andrade EsperanzadirectorAward / grant6302,087Form 4
2026-04-29CHASE ANTHONY RdirectorAward / grant6305,000Form 4
2026-04-29MATTHEWS CHARLES WdirectorAward / grant6309,763Form 4
2026-04-29Shields Marsha McCombsdirectorAward / grant630630Form 4
2026-04-29EDWARDS CRAWFORD HdirectorAward / grant63011,469Form 4
2026-04-29HAEMISEGGER DAVID JdirectorAward / grant63010,924Form 4
2026-04-29Comparin Cynthia JanedirectorAward / grant6305,584Form 4
2026-03-09EDWARDS CRAWFORD HdirectorGift75050,732Form 4
2026-03-06Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerOther acquisition7004,610Form 4
2026-03-06Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerOther acquisition7005,310Form 4
2026-03-06Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerOther acquisition7005,310Form 4
2026-02-10GREEN PHILLIP DdirectorGift912110,879Form 4
2026-02-05GREEN PHILLIP DdirectorDisposition3,601111,791Form 4
2026-02-05Bracher PaulofficerDisposition940108,679Form 4
2026-02-05Stead JimmyofficerDisposition88518,196Form 4
2026-02-05Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerDisposition7164,610Form 4
2026-02-05Severyn Carol JeanofficerDisposition70013,549Form 4
2026-02-05Alonzo Annette MofficerDisposition69020,131Form 4
2026-02-05Berman BobbyofficerDisposition54929,150Form 4
2026-02-05Kasanoff Howard L.officerDisposition3934,212Form 4
2026-02-05Kasanoff Howard L.officerAward / grant8824,605Form 4
2026-02-05Berman BobbyofficerAward / grant1,29329,699Form 4
2026-02-05Bracher PaulofficerAward / grant2,299109,619Form 4
2026-02-05GREEN PHILLIP DdirectorAward / grant9,124115,392Form 4
2026-02-05Alonzo Annette MofficerAward / grant1,63820,821Form 4
2026-02-05Stead JimmyofficerAward / grant2,15519,081Form 4
2026-02-05Severyn Carol JeanofficerAward / grant1,68114,249Form 4
2026-02-05Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerAward / grant1,7245,326Form 4
2025-12-09Rhodes Coolidge E JRofficerGift4953,300Form 4
2025-12-05GREEN PHILLIP DdirectorGift2,892105,296Form 4
2025-10-28GREEN PHILLIP DdirectorAward / grant24,34324,343Form 4
2025-10-28Geddes DanofficerAward / grant3,9563,956Form 4
2025-10-28Wilson Kenneth L.officerAward / grant3,3473,347Form 4
2025-10-28Pullin Ericka LynnofficerAward / grant1,8261,826Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.