Issued 2026-09-16 at $131.99 · now $131.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CF has typically landed between $114.43 and $156.85 — a range of −13.3% to +18.8% from the issuance price $131.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($131.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $131.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $131.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $133 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $124.04–$141.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $114.43–$156.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −61.3% | −61.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-05 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-28 | +52.3% | +0.0% | +52.3% |
| 2020-11-04 | +49.9% | +0.0% | +49.9% |
| 2008-03-20 | +48.7% | −1.3% | +48.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$19.2B
market cap
$11.13
EPS (TTM)
11.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$7.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.82
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$319.15
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$265.64
- Analyst target · range $72.00–$145.00$109.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$131.99
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+5.6%
n=19
Mar
32%
−2.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.3%
n=19
May
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
89%
+6.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.5%
n=19
Sep
68%
−0.4%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $126.00 | $756K | −7.9% of holding | −3.7% | −5.5% | 69,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Sale | 3,499 @ $125.38 | $439K | −10.1% of holding | −3.7% | −5.5% | 31,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Mayer Erik M. | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $124.69 | $187K | −19.1% of holding | −3.7% | −5.5% | 6,341 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 32,658 @ $130.62 | $4.3M | −30.2% of holding | −13.3% | −13.8% | 75,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 20,368 @ $131.17 | $2.7M | −27.0% of holding | −13.3% | −13.8% | 54,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 18,041 @ $136.06 | $2.5M | −24.4% of holding | −13.8% | −17.1% | 55,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 6,250 @ $136.69 | $854K | −7.6% of holding | −13.8% | −17.1% | 75,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 28,625 @ $118.64 | $3.4M | −20.9% of holding | +0.3% | +0.3% | 108,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 5,534 @ $116.21 | $643K | −6.3% of holding | +13.7% | +7.9% | 81,722 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $119.01 | $1.2M | −10.3% of holding | +17.2% | +0.5% | 87,256 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | McGrane Michael Patrick | officer | Sale | 3,666 @ $116.50 | $427K | −16.1% of holding | +17.2% | +0.5% | 19,161 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Mayer Erik M. | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $116.25 | $256K | −21.9% of holding | +17.2% | +0.5% | 7,841 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 57,364 @ $109.35 | $6.3M | −29.6% of holding | +21.3% | +10.8% | 136,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 7,200 @ $111.00 | $799K | −8.9% of holding | +21.3% | +10.8% | 73,803 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Sale | 6,184 @ $109.33 | $676K | −15.2% of holding | +21.3% | +10.8% | 34,535 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Sale | 2,439 @ $111.00 | $271K | −36.2% of holding | +21.3% | +10.8% | 4,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Sale | 864 @ $107.00 | $92K | −4.7% of holding | +21.3% | +10.8% | 17,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $106.00 | $106K | −5.1% of holding | +28.1% | +21.3% | 18,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Sale | 136 @ $107.00 | $15K | −0.7% of holding | +28.1% | +21.3% | 18,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 33,866 @ $109.32 | $3.7M | −14.9% of holding | +23.8% | +15.5% | 194,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 30,407 @ $108.78 | $3.3M | −11.8% of holding | +23.8% | +15.5% | 227,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 3,914 @ $106.09 | $415K | −4.6% of holding | +23.8% | +15.5% | 81,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | McGrane Michael Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,766 @ $105.36 | $291K | −10.8% of holding | +23.8% | +15.5% | 22,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 45,870 @ $105.52 | $4.8M | −13.1% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 304,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 44,104 @ $106.59 | $4.7M | −14.5% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 260,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 44,344 @ $103.61 | $4.6M | −11.2% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 350,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Sale | 8,631 @ $103.08 | $890K | −56.2% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 6,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 6,858 @ $104.00 | $713K | −7.5% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 84,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 5,102 @ $105.99 | $541K | −5.0% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 97,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $107.04 | $209K | −0.7% of holding | +29.5% | +12.8% | 258,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $99.06 | $9.9M | −21.1% of holding | +45.9% | +14.1% | 373,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Sale | 5,620 @ $98.50 | $554K | −12.7% of holding | +45.9% | +14.1% | 38,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 1,148 @ $100.00 | $115K | −0.3% of holding | +45.9% | +14.1% | 371,911 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $100.00 | $100K | −5.2% of holding | +45.9% | +14.1% | 18,255 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 3,215 @ $97.00 | $312K | −3.5% of holding | +48.2% | +17.5% | 87,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Will W Anthony | director | Sale | 111,890 @ $100.25 | $11.2M | −19.1% of holding | +28.4% | +22.3% | 473,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $100.23 | $1.0M | −10.2% of holding | −14.4% | −35.2% | 87,923 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 5,003 @ $101.00 | $505K | −5.0% of holding | −13.4% | −34.5% | 95,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $100.71 | $504K | −5.3% of holding | −13.4% | −34.5% | 90,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 13,250 @ $97.32 | $1.3M | −11.4% of holding | −12.2% | −34.7% | 102,929 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Sale | 5,498 @ $99.95 | $550K | −27.4% of holding | −12.2% | −34.7% | 14,565 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 2,750 @ $98.34 | $270K | −2.7% of holding | −12.2% | −34.7% | 100,179 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 1,350 @ $98.00 | $132K | −1.5% of holding | −17.2% | −12.2% | 91,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $96.00 | $144K | −1.6% of holding | −16.7% | −9.2% | 92,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Sale | 8,889 @ $95.00 | $844K | −35.9% of holding | −18.8% | −9.9% | 15,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Frost Bert A | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $95.00 | $285K | −2.8% of holding | −18.8% | −9.9% | 105,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $95.00 | $143K | −1.6% of holding | −18.8% | −9.9% | 93,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
133 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Scribner Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 6,464 | 6,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | ARZBAECHER ROBERT C | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 54,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Ahmed Javed | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 23,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Williams Trevor Leigh | officer | Award / grant | 4,184 | 4,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | White Celso L. | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 23,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | TOELLE MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 27,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Noonan Anne P | director | Award / grant | 2,208 | 34,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Madrazo Yris Jesus | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 12,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Ellerbusch Susan A | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 7,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | EAVES JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 27,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Wagler Theresa E | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 36,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | DeHaas Deborah L | director | Award / grant | 1,390 | 12,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Will W Anthony | director | Gift | 17,654 | 101,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Will W Anthony | director | Disposition | 33,155 | 21,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Will W Anthony | director | Award / grant | 96,858 | 118,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Will W Anthony | director | Discretionary | 29,504 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ARZBAECHER ROBERT C | director | Gift | 5,000 | 52,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | ARZBAECHER ROBERT C | director | Gift | 5,000 | 59,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | ARZBAECHER ROBERT C | director | Gift | 1,600 | 57,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Will W Anthony | director | Withheld for tax | 18,007 | 394,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bohn Christopher D | director | Withheld for tax | 4,598 | 207,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Frost Bert A | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,337 | 102,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,054 | 91,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,625 | 15,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,511 | 14,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,030 | 19,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | McGrane Michael Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 523 | 25,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Mayer Erik M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 284 | 10,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Mayer Erik M. | officer | Award / grant | 968 | 10,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Malik Ashraf K | officer | Award / grant | 4,064 | 16,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | McGrane Michael Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 1,258 | 26,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Menzel Susan L | officer | Award / grant | 6,968 | 94,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Will W Anthony | director | Award / grant | 40,647 | 412,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Frost Bert A | officer | Award / grant | 9,871 | 106,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Award / grant | 2,322 | 20,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bohn Christopher D | director | Award / grant | 10,452 | 212,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Gift | 1,973 | 40,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Gift | 1,973 | 12,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hoker Richard A | officer | Award / grant | 3,484 | 16,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Dempsey Linda M | officer | Award / grant | 2,562 | 19,255 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-08-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Pete Ricketts | Senate | sale | 2023-10-20 | 2023-09-21 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.