CERTCertara, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Information Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.13 · now $8.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CERT has typically landed between $6.16 and $10.11 — a range of −24.2% to +24.3% from the issuance price $8.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,425 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CERT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.16worst · -24.2%$10.11best · +24.3%
  • now $8.13 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.97 (-2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.1–$8.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.16–$10.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,425 windows spanning 2020-12-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-11-04−41.4%−42.3%+0.0%
2021-11-03−40.8%−40.8%+2.5%
2021-11-01−38.7%−38.7%+3.9%
3 best
2022-11-04+64.2%+0.0%+66.4%
2022-11-03+48.7%−10.7%+48.7%
2022-11-02+47.8%−9.9%+47.8%

1,425 overlapping windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+7.0%
n=6
Feb
33%
−7.0%
n=6
Mar
33%
−5.7%
n=6
Apr
67%
+7.6%
n=6
May
17%
−7.4%
n=6
Jun
67%
−0.3%
n=6
Jul
67%
+5.1%
n=6
Aug
50%
−5.7%
n=6
Sep
17%
−3.4%
n=6
Oct
20%
−3.4%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.2%
n=5
Dec
40%
+2.7%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$42025-11-11: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Feehery William F2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $559K — Pedersen Leif E2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $559K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $200K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Feehery William F — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pedersen Leif E — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-11Feehery William FdirectorPurchase24,096 @ $8.30$200K+1.0% of holding+1.8%−56.4%2,360,769Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09Pedersen Leif EofficerSale51,224 @ $10.92$559K−40.9% of holding+14.8%−43.8%73,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Mohammed FaizofficerAward / grant63,53263,532Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerWithheld for tax7,89332,046Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerWithheld for tax4,21025,050Form 4
2026-06-01Anhalt RonaofficerWithheld for tax2,24116,789Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerOption exercise7,9417,941Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerOption exercise14,88939,939Form 4
2026-06-01Anhalt RonaofficerOption exercise7,1477,147Form 4
2026-06-01Anhalt RonaofficerOption exercise7,14719,030Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerOption exercise14,8890Form 4
2026-06-01Corcoran DanielofficerOption exercise7,94129,260Form 4
2026-05-14BROSHY ERANdirectorOption exercise15,75750,708Form 4
2026-05-14BROSHY ERANdirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14Killefer NancydirectorOption exercise15,75751,846Form 4
2026-05-14Bedi ArjundirectorOption exercise5,5475,547Form 4
2026-05-14Bedi ArjundirectorOption exercise5,5470Form 4
2026-05-14Bedi ArjundirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-14Crane Rosemary AdirectorOption exercise15,75745,672Form 4
2026-05-14Crane Rosemary AdirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14Reynders John V WdirectorOption exercise15,75726,466Form 4
2026-05-14Reynders John V WdirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14Collins CynthiadirectorOption exercise15,75751,846Form 4
2026-05-14Collins CynthiadirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14BROSHY ERANdirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-14Killefer NancydirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14Killefer NancydirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-14Reynders John V WdirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-14WALSH MATTHEW MdirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14WALSH MATTHEW MdirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-14WALSH MATTHEW MdirectorOption exercise15,757213,316Form 4
2026-05-14CASHMAN JAMES E IIIdirectorOption exercise15,757484,197Form 4
2026-05-14CASHMAN JAMES E IIIdirectorOption exercise15,7570Form 4
2026-05-14CASHMAN JAMES E IIIdirectorAward / grant33,22233,222Form 4
2026-05-11Resnick Jon MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax24,37735,389Form 4
2026-05-11Resnick Jon MatthewdirectorAward / grant179,299179,299Form 4
2026-05-11Gallagher John EofficerAward / grant194,444194,444Form 4
2026-05-11Pedersen Leif EofficerAward / grant68,34868,348Form 4
2026-05-11Pedersen Leif EofficerAward / grant74,07474,074Form 4
2026-05-11Pedersen Leif EofficerAward / grant111,111111,111Form 4
2026-05-11Pedersen Leif EofficerDisposition68,3480Form 4
2026-05-11Aspbury RobertofficerDisposition68,3480Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.