Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.53 · now $2.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CERS has typically landed between $1.93 and $3.34 — a range of −23.7% to +32.1% from the issuance price $2.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CERS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.49 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.21–$2.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.93–$3.34
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-07 | −72.3% | −72.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-08 | −65.3% | −71.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-09 | −65.2% | −71.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-06-25 | +213.7% | −9.5% | +213.7% |
| 2009-07-10 | +137.9% | +0.0% | +242.5% |
| 2009-06-26 | +127.7% | −14.9% | +195.0% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $2.98 | $90K | −3.1% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 936,657 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 16,666 @ $3.16 | $53K | −0.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,232,211 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 101,919 @ $2.94 | $300K | −2.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,053,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 42,359 @ $2.94 | $125K | −2.4% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,694,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 33,676 @ $2.94 | $99K | −3.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,062,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 24,329 @ $2.94 | $72K | −2.5% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 966,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | BJERKHOLT ERIC | director | Sale | 20,454 @ $2.60 | $53K | −7.2% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 16,667 @ $3.00 | $50K | −1.0% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,656,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 16,667 @ $3.00 | $50K | −1.0% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,673,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 447,757 @ $1.66 | $742K | −8.2% of holding | +9.7% | +31.1% | 4,998,493 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 165,200 @ $1.66 | $274K | −8.6% of holding | +9.7% | +31.1% | 1,747,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 127,544 @ $1.66 | $211K | −10.9% of holding | +9.7% | +31.1% | 1,040,551 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 101,740 @ $1.66 | $169K | −11.6% of holding | +9.7% | +31.1% | 777,361 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 40,426 @ $1.88 | $76K | −4.4% of holding | −0.5% | +18.1% | 879,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 78,187 @ $2.01 | $157K | −1.4% of holding | −3.0% | +19.0% | 5,446,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 34,094 @ $2.01 | $68K | −1.8% of holding | −3.0% | +19.0% | 1,912,874 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 30,845 @ $2.01 | $62K | −2.8% of holding | −3.0% | +19.0% | 1,059,139 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 27,796 @ $2.01 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | −3.0% | +19.0% | 1,168,095 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 24,235 @ $2.01 | $49K | −2.6% of holding | −3.0% | +19.0% | 919,527 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 61,233 @ $2.06 | $126K | −6.1% of holding | −6.3% | +11.9% | 943,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 55,225 @ $2.06 | $114K | −4.4% of holding | −6.3% | +11.9% | 1,195,891 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 55,000 @ $1.70 | $94K | −7.0% of holding | +18.4% | +59.3% | 728,294 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Gregory Dean A. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.25 | $31K | +40.5% of holding | +17.1% | +80.6% | 86,725 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 122,827 @ $1.45 | $178K | −2.9% of holding | −2.3% | −35.4% | 4,115,845 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 46,004 @ $1.45 | $67K | −3.1% of holding | −2.3% | −35.4% | 1,431,326 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 36,740 @ $1.45 | $53K | −4.0% of holding | −2.3% | −35.4% | 875,867 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 30,075 @ $1.45 | $44K | −4.2% of holding | −2.3% | −35.4% | 685,775 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 30,075 @ $1.45 | $44K | −3.7% of holding | −2.3% | −35.4% | 783,294 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 71,086 @ $1.45 | $103K | −1.6% of holding | +2.2% | −31.4% | 4,238,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 29,985 @ $1.45 | $43K | −2.0% of holding | +2.2% | −31.4% | 1,477,330 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 23,147 @ $1.45 | $34K | −2.5% of holding | +2.2% | −31.4% | 912,607 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 18,949 @ $1.45 | $27K | −2.3% of holding | +2.2% | −31.4% | 813,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 18,949 @ $1.45 | $27K | −2.6% of holding | +2.2% | −31.4% | 715,850 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 113,008 @ $1.66 | $187K | −10.7% of holding | −10.4% | −33.9% | 946,131 | Form 4 · filed 369 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 60,984 @ $1.50 | $91K | −1.4% of holding | −5.7% | −27.2% | 4,309,758 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 33,999 @ $1.50 | $51K | −2.2% of holding | −5.7% | −27.2% | 1,507,315 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 31,148 @ $1.50 | $47K | −3.2% of holding | −5.7% | −27.2% | 935,754 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 27,457 @ $1.50 | $41K | −3.2% of holding | −5.7% | −27.2% | 832,318 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 26,139 @ $1.50 | $39K | −3.4% of holding | −5.7% | −27.2% | 734,799 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $1.59 | $95K | −12.9% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 405,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Sale | 23,023 @ $1.55 | $36K | −0.7% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 3,230,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Sale | 10,780 @ $1.55 | $17K | −1.2% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 905,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 8,386 @ $1.55 | $13K | −1.5% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 554,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 6,292 @ $1.55 | $10K | −1.3% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 465,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 6,292 @ $1.55 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | −9.5% | −29.3% | 394,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Sale | 60,656 @ $1.58 | $96K | −10.9% of holding | −6.2% | −27.3% | 493,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Sale | 51,254 @ $1.58 | $81K | −11.3% of holding | −6.2% | −27.3% | 400,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Sale | 16,667 @ $1.71 | $29K | −3.5% of holding | +0.6% | −24.4% | 457,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Gregory Dean A. | director | Purchase | 1,725 @ $1.70 | $3K | +2.9% of holding | +8.2% | −21.1% | 61,725 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | BJERKHOLT ERIC | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $1.78 | $36K | −11.0% of holding | +5.5% | −25.9% | 162,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 554,529 | 2,248,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 369,686 | 369,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 63,600 | 1,095,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Award / grant | 192,500 | 5,154,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 1,736,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 990,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | BJERKHOLT ERIC | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 282,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Shan Hua | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 192,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Gregory Dean A. | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 146,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Witney Frank | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 340,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | NACHTSHEIM JAMI K | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 268,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Lucena Ann | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 232,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,240,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,146,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Award / grant | 193,270 | 5,524,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 80,320 | 1,946,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 63,854 | 1,251,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Award / grant | 55,220 | 1,004,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 55,220 | 1,083,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Award / grant | 264,000 | 949,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Award / grant | 1,200,000 | 5,331,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,187,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,028,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 420,000 | 1,866,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | BJERKHOLT ERIC | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 222,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Shan Hua | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 132,386 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Lucena Ann | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 172,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Witney Frank | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 280,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | NACHTSHEIM JAMI K | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 208,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Swisher Daniel N JR | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 207,045 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | MOORE TIMOTHY L. | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 205,073 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Benjamin Richard J | officer | Award / grant | 66,565 | 760,938 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 385,000 | 790,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 392,500 | 886,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 90,486 | 1,541,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Jayaraman Vivek K | officer | Award / grant | 545,000 | 1,450,828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Green Kevin Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 80,540 | 966,902 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Award / grant | 165,742 | 4,370,742 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Greenman William Mariner | director | Award / grant | 975,000 | 4,205,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Jensen Chrystal | officer | Award / grant | 69,577 | 859,775 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.