Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.75 · now $10.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CEPO has typically landed between $9.89 and $12.13 — a range of −8.0% to +12.8% from the issuance price $10.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
403 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-01-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CEPO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.78 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.71–$10.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.89–$12.13
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-16 | −30.1% | −31.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-15 | −26.4% | −28.9% | +3.5% |
| 2025-07-17 | −25.6% | −26.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-13 | +23.8% | −7.2% | +23.8% |
| 2025-04-10 | +23.7% | +0.0% | +23.7% |
| 2025-04-11 | +22.7% | +0.0% | +23.7% |
403 overlapping windows · 2025-01-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | Harraden Circle Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $10.43 | $2.6M | −10.9% of holding | −2.0% | −9.6% | 2,048,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 500,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | −0.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 5,000,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | −0.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 500,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | −0.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 5,000,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | −0.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 500,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | −0.8% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 5,000,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | −0.8% | 5,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 500,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | −0.8% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 5,000,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | −0.8% | 5,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-08 | Cantor EP Holdings I, LLC | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $10.00 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −1.9% | +12.8% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.