Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.38 · now $10.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CEPF has typically landed between $10.21 and $10.59 — a range of −1.7% to +2.0% from the issuance price $10.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
248 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CEPF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.4 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.31–$10.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.21–$10.59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-03-04 | −2.4% | −2.4% | +0.1% |
| 2026-03-03 | −2.4% | −2.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | −2.4% | −2.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-15 | +4.1% | +0.0% | +4.2% |
| 2025-09-12 | +4.1% | −0.1% | +4.1% |
| 2025-09-29 | +4.1% | −0.1% | +4.1% |
248 overlapping windows · 2025-08-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 11,250,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 11,250,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Cantor EP Holdings I, LLC | director | Purchase | 11,250,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 11,250,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 900,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 900,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | −3.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 11,250,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | −3.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Cantor EP Holdings I, LLC | director | Purchase | 900,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Cantor EP Holdings I, LLC | director | Purchase | 11,250,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 11,250,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 900,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lutnick Brandon | director | Purchase | 11,250,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 11,250,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 900,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | −3.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 11,250,000 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | −3.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Cantor EP Holdings I, LLC | director | Purchase | 900,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +0.9% | −3.3% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Cantor EP Holdings IV, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 900,000 @ $10.00 | $9.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −2.6% | −4.3% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
1 award / exercise / gift record — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | Cantor EP Holdings IV, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 250,000 | 11,250,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.