CENX · TickerCove

CENXCentury Aluminum CompanyBasic Materials · Aluminumas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.80 · now $39.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CENX has typically landed between $29.47 and $54.65 — a range of −25.9% to +37.3% from the issuance price $39.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$39.8 · 33% of range

$25.85 low$68.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.9%

typical move · IQR 25.8%

−25.9%worst (p90)+37.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CENX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $39.8 (+0.0%)
typical $40.57 (+1.9%)
middle 50% $35.43–$45.71
90% range $29.47–$54.65

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-05	−74.3%	−74.3%	+5.6%
2008-09-24	−72.9%	−72.9%	+0.0%
2009-02-04	−72.5%	−72.5%	+8.7%
3 best
2009-03-06	+210.9%	−3.6%	+238.2%
2009-03-05	+210.0%	−11.7%	+210.0%
2009-03-09	+185.8%	+0.0%	+250.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+2.2%

n=20

Feb

55%

+6.6%

n=20

Mar

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Apr

65%

+5.1%

n=20

May

45%

−2.0%

n=20

Jun

40%

−1.9%

n=20

Jul

55%

+3.4%

n=20

Aug

35%

−3.3%

n=20

Sep

50%

−2.6%

n=20

Oct

50%

−1.8%

n=20

Nov

75%

+8.4%

n=20

Dec

65%

+12.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-25	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Sale	16,739 @ $50.51	$845K	−20.7% of holding	+12.3%	not yet — horizon still open	64,125	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Gary Jesse E	director	Sale	150,000 @ $55.47	$8.3M	−51.3% of holding	+10.3%	−42.5%	142,580	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Sale	18,000 @ $58.00	$1.0M	−42.0% of holding	+14.4%	−39.0%	24,902	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Sale	10,529 @ $56.51	$595K	−15.7% of holding	+14.6%	−36.3%	56,643	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG	tenPercentOwner	Sale	6,315,245 @ $51.75	$326.8M	−34.1% of holding	+21.1%	−23.8%	12,184,755	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $56.33	$563K	−13.0% of holding	+21.1%	−23.8%	67,172	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Aboud Matt	officer	Sale	2,971 @ $52.67	$156K	−4.4% of holding	+23.4%	−24.2%	64,843	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Aboud Matt	officer	Sale	12,126 @ $52.50	$637K	−15.2% of holding	+19.3%	−23.2%	67,814	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Sale	22,884 @ $51.24	$1.2M	−33.7% of holding	+10.9%	−22.4%	45,059	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-25	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Sale	43,000 @ $54.10	$2.3M	−24.0% of holding	−2.0%	−28.2%	136,393	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	DeZee John	officer	Sale	66,000 @ $50.72	$3.3M	−40.3% of holding	+0.9%	−28.3%	97,647	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-23	Gary Jesse E	director	Sale	150,000 @ $48.19	$7.2M	−33.9% of holding	+10.1%	−15.7%	292,580	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-10	GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG	tenPercentOwner	Sale	9,000,000 @ $30.25	$272.3M	−32.7% of holding	−7.2%	+89.6%	18,500,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-26	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Sale	9,493 @ $27.91	$265K	−14.7% of holding	+6.1%	+94.2%	55,260	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-19	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Sale	16,450 @ $27.50	$452K	−36.4% of holding	+23.1%	+69.3%	28,706	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Aboud Matt	officer	Sale	12,027 @ $23.27	$280K	−16.1% of holding	+2.2%	+119.5%	62,589	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $20.24	$101K	−7.8% of holding	−15.6%	+18.7%	59,083	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $19.99	$50K	−3.8% of holding	−15.7%	+12.3%	64,083	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-27	Gary Jesse E	director	Sale	50,000 @ $18.48	$924K	−98.5% of holding	−2.9%	−2.4%	753	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-26	Gary Jesse E	director	Sale	29,243 @ $18.97	$555K	−36.6% of holding	−4.3%	−8.0%	50,753	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-05	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $23.85	$477K	−15.6% of holding	−18.8%	−16.5%	107,932	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-15	Michelmore Andrew G	director	Withheld for tax	652	90,609	Form 4
2026-06-15	Berntzen Jarl	director	Award / grant	2,172	211,123	Form 4
2026-06-15	Olivier Tamla A	director	Award / grant	2,172	31,845	Form 4
2026-06-15	Michelmore Andrew G	director	Award / grant	2,172	91,261	Form 4
2026-06-15	GLASSER ERROL	director	Award / grant	2,172	120,869	Form 4
2026-06-15	Bush Jennifer Mary	director	Award / grant	2,172	49,044	Form 4
2026-02-09	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Withheld for tax	4,240	80,864	Form 4
2026-01-12	Gary Jesse E	director	Gift	314,611	277,227	Form 4
2026-01-12	Gary Jesse E	director	Gift	314,611	442,580	Form 4
2026-01-01	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Award / grant	5,122	77,172	Form 4
2026-01-01	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Award / grant	15,624	179,393	Form 4
2026-01-01	Aboud Matt	officer	Award / grant	5,529	79,940	Form 4
2026-01-01	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Award / grant	13,488	85,104	Form 4
2026-01-01	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Award / grant	5,238	42,902	Form 4
2026-01-01	Gary Jesse E	director	Award / grant	57,443	591,838	Form 4
2026-01-01	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Award / grant	5,238	67,943	Form 4
2026-01-01	DeZee John	officer	Award / grant	9,821	163,647	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gary Jesse E	director	Withheld for tax	203,131	602,106	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gary Jesse E	director	Withheld for tax	67,711	534,395	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Withheld for tax	41,886	184,712	Form 4
2025-12-31	DeZee John	officer	Withheld for tax	21,163	165,797	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Withheld for tax	20,943	163,769	Form 4
2025-12-31	Aboud Matt	officer	Withheld for tax	16,485	82,654	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Withheld for tax	15,622	70,516	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Withheld for tax	12,455	78,278	Form 4
2025-12-31	DeZee John	officer	Withheld for tax	11,971	153,826	Form 4
2025-12-31	Aboud Matt	officer	Withheld for tax	8,243	74,411	Form 4
2025-12-31	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Withheld for tax	8,090	75,661	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Withheld for tax	7,811	62,705	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Withheld for tax	6,228	72,050	Form 4
2025-12-31	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Withheld for tax	5,469	41,387	Form 4
2025-12-31	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Withheld for tax	4,045	71,616	Form 4
2025-12-31	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Withheld for tax	3,723	37,664	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gudlaugsson Gunnar	officer	Award / grant	82,794	226,598	Form 4
2025-12-31	Calloway Kenneth L	officer	Award / grant	18,150	46,856	Form 4
2025-12-31	Aboud Matt	officer	Award / grant	36,550	99,139	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gary Jesse E	director	Award / grant	439,090	805,237	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hoffman Robert F	officer	Award / grant	31,650	90,733	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hafberg Agust F	officer	Award / grant	30,878	86,138	Form 4
2025-12-31	Trpkovski Peter A	officer	Award / grant	18,260	83,751	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i