CEGConstellation Energy CorporationUtilities · Renewable Utilitiesas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $263.27 · now $263.27 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CEG has typically landed between $221.53 and $330.98 — a range of −15.9% to +25.7% from the issuance price $263.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,155 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-01-19 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($263.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CEG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $263.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$221.53worst · -15.9%$330.98best · +25.7%
  • now $263.27 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $271.57 (+3.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $252.41–$290.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $221.53–$330.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,155 windows spanning 2022-01-19 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-06−35.0%−35.0%+4.4%
2025-02-14−33.4%−36.2%+2.6%
2025-02-10−33.0%−37.1%+1.2%
3 best
2024-09-05+62.2%−1.7%+62.2%
2024-09-06+60.9%+0.0%+64.9%
2025-04-04+60.2%+0.0%+60.2%

1,155 overlapping windows · 2022-01-19 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$98.5B
market cap
$11.51
EPS (TTM)
23.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$25.5B
'20'25
Net income$2.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr16.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.62
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $263.27$158.48$461.93
  • DCF (intrinsic)$179.41
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$259.83
  • Analyst target · range $296.00–$441.00$358.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$263.27

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+4.2%
n=4
Feb
40%
+4.7%
n=5
Mar
60%
+0.5%
n=5
Apr
80%
+5.5%
n=5
May
80%
+12.1%
n=5
Jun
40%
−3.0%
n=5
Jul
80%
+5.9%
n=5
Aug
80%
+5.8%
n=5
Sep
80%
+8.3%
n=5
Oct
100%
+8.2%
n=4
Nov
50%
+0.9%
n=4
Dec
0%
−7.4%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$402$2372026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $418K — CRANDALL ROGER W↑ buys↓ salesdirector CRANDALL ROGER W — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11CRANDALL ROGER WdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $278.62$418K+777.2% of holding+4.4%not yet — horizon still open1,693Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20Bauer Matthew NofficerSale3,904 @ $310.38$1.2M−36.9% of holding−20.6%−3.3%6,683Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Bauer Matthew NofficerSale96 @ $311.21$30K−1.4% of holding−20.6%−3.3%6,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2023-01-20DE BALMANN YVES CdirectorSale79 @ $82.23$6K−28.0% of holding−4.0%+1.6%203Form 4 · filed 476 days after the trade
2022-11-09DE BALMANN YVES CdirectorPurchase79 @ $87.63$7K+38.9% of holding−2.3%−18.7%282Form 4 · filed 548 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

240 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04CRANDALL ROGER WdirectorAward / grant462462Form 4
2026-06-30Harrington Charles L.directorAward / grant1465,345Form 4
2026-04-28Halverson Bradley MdirectorAward / grant5566,257Form 4
2026-04-28Rimmer Nneka LouisedirectorAward / grant5564,475Form 4
2026-04-28Ashish Khandpur KdirectorAward / grant5566,257Form 4
2026-04-28Paterson Eileen P.directorAward / grant5561,555Form 4
2026-04-28Holzrichter JuliedirectorAward / grant5566,257Form 4
2026-04-28Harrington Charles L.directorAward / grant5561,555Form 4
2026-04-28Richardson John MdirectorAward / grant55616,399Form 4
2026-04-28DE BALMANN YVES CdirectorAward / grant55651,340Form 4
2026-04-28Jamil Dhiaa M.directorAward / grant5561,705Form 4
2026-04-28LAWLESS ROBERT JdirectorAward / grant55651,340Form 4
2026-03-31Harrington Charles L.directorAward / grant1305,191Form 4
2026-03-01Koehler MichaelofficerWithheld for tax7,66053,289Form 4
2026-03-01Koehler MichaelofficerAward / grant6,0636,063Form 4
2026-03-01Koehler MichaelofficerOption exercise19,4050Form 4
2026-03-01Koehler MichaelofficerOption exercise19,40560,949Form 4
2026-03-01Koehler MichaelofficerOption exercise19,40560,949Form 4
2026-02-09Dominguez JosephdirectorDisposition92,993121,360Form 4
2026-02-09Dominguez JosephdirectorWithheld for tax83,104214,353Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerDisposition26,58765,609Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerWithheld for tax22,16692,197Form 4
2026-02-09Eggers Daniel L.officerWithheld for tax21,34852,293Form 4
2026-02-09Eggers Daniel L.officerDisposition19,32632,967Form 4
2026-02-09MCHUGH JAMESofficerDisposition16,94057,585Form 4
2026-02-09Dardis David O.officerWithheld for tax14,68241,248Form 4
2026-02-09MCHUGH JAMESofficerWithheld for tax14,13674,525Form 4
2026-02-09Dardis David O.officerDisposition13,44427,803Form 4
2026-02-09Koehler MichaelofficerDisposition12,92041,544Form 4
2026-02-09Koehler MichaelofficerWithheld for tax9,20254,465Form 4
2026-02-09Bauer Matthew NofficerDisposition3,9065,725Form 4
2026-02-09Bauer Matthew NofficerWithheld for tax3,4449,631Form 4
2026-02-09Smith Shane PatrickofficerWithheld for tax2,0485,062Form 4
2026-02-09Smith Shane PatrickofficerDisposition1,3773,685Form 4
2026-02-09Koehler MichaelofficerAward / grant1,9414,069Form 4
2026-02-09Smith Shane PatrickofficerAward / grant4,5354,535Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerOption exercise7,3314,536Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerAward / grant4,9729,508Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerAward / grant46,17646,176Form 4
2026-02-09Hanson Bryan CraigofficerOption exercise46,1760Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-05-082026-04-02$1–15K
Shelley Moore CapitoSenatesale2026-05-072026-04-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-27$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.