CECelanese Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.87 · now $46.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CE has typically landed between $37.71 and $54.59 — a range of −19.5% to +16.5% from the issuance price $46.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.71worst · -19.5%$54.59best · +16.5%
  • now $46.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.69 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.24–$50.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.71–$54.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−62.3%−62.3%+0.0%
2008-09-22−55.8%−55.8%+0.0%
2008-09-25−55.5%−55.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+93.5%−3.2%+93.5%
2009-03-06+90.8%−0.9%+98.0%
2009-03-09+90.1%+0.0%+99.8%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
63%
+5.4%
n=19
Apr
79%
+7.8%
n=19
May
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
−1.9%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$69$362026-08-14: 3 insider purchases, $105K — Kyrish Chuck …2026-08-11: 2 insider purchases, $125K — Murray Mark Christopher, Duffie Ashley B2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $158K — Richardson Scott A2025-12-09: 1 insider purchase, $205K — Kyrish Chuck2025-09-08: 2 insider purchases, $48K — Go Timothy …2025-08-14: 4 insider purchases, $306K — GALANTE EDWARD G, Murray Mark Christopher, Sutton Scott McDougald, MOORTHY GANESH2025-08: 4 open-market purchases, $306K2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $48K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $363K2026-08: 5 open-market purchases, $230K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kyrish Chuck — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Kyrish Chuck — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Kyrish Chuck — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Murray Mark Christopher — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Duffie Ashley B — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Richardson Scott A — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kyrish Chuck — Purchase on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Go Timothy — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Go Timothy — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GALANTE EDWARD G — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Murray Mark Christopher — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sutton Scott McDougald — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MOORTHY GANESH — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Kyrish ChuckofficerPurchase1,400 @ $45.53$64K+5.2% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open28,214Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-14Kyrish ChuckofficerPurchase800 @ $45.51$36K+2.8% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open29,114Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-14Kyrish ChuckofficerPurchase100 @ $45.51$5K+0.4% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open28,314Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-11Murray Mark ChristopherofficerPurchase2,153 @ $45.52$98K+7.6% of holding+3.6%not yet — horizon still open30,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Duffie Ashley BofficerPurchase600 @ $45.60$27K+1.9% of holding+3.6%not yet — horizon still open31,925Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10Richardson Scott AdirectorPurchase3,800 @ $41.59$158K+5.7% of holding+4.1%+15.2%70,449Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09Kyrish ChuckofficerPurchase5,000 @ $41.03$205K+84.5% of holding+11.5%+20.0%10,914Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08Go TimothydirectorPurchase539 @ $46.17$25K+13.9% of holding−11.8%+4.1%4,415Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Go TimothydirectorPurchase500 @ $46.33$23K+14.8% of holding−11.8%+4.1%3,876Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorPurchase2,400 @ $41.27$99K+12.6% of holding+2.6%+31.9%21,377Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14Murray Mark ChristopherofficerPurchase2,017 @ $41.83$84K+13.5% of holding+2.6%+31.9%17,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14Sutton Scott McDougalddirectorPurchase2,000 @ $40.89$82K+10.9% of holding+2.6%+31.9%20,376Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14MOORTHY GANESHdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $40.94$41K+19.9% of holding+2.6%+31.9%6,015Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Murray Mark ChristopherofficerPurchase1,479 @ $52.18$77K+10.6% of holding+0.8%−42.1%15,468Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-12MOORTHY GANESHdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $53.29$53K+50.0% of holding−22.9%−29.5%3,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07Sutton Scott McDougalddirectorPurchase7,450 @ $54.65$407K+98.7% of holding−14.6%−29.1%15,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07Murray Mark ChristopherofficerPurchase2,353 @ $54.45$128K+20.2% of holding−14.6%−29.1%13,989Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07MOORTHY GANESHdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $54.67$55K+100.0% of holding−14.6%−29.1%2,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07Kissire Deborah J.directorPurchase1,000 @ $54.28$54K+82.4% of holding−14.6%−29.1%2,214Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

120 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant912,909Form 4
2026-08-10Kissire Deborah J.directorAward / grant69,310Form 4
2026-08-10GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorAward / grant56,815Form 4
2026-08-10Hill KathryndirectorAward / grant11,143Form 4
2026-08-10GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorAward / grant1,93027,983Form 4
2026-05-11Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant512,901Form 4
2026-05-11GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorAward / grant36,810Form 4
2026-05-11Kissire Deborah J.directorAward / grant39,304Form 4
2026-05-11Hill KathryndirectorAward / grant11,142Form 4
2026-05-11Hill KathryndirectorAward / grant2,97519,783Form 4
2026-05-11Chinn Bruce E.directorAward / grant2,9757,261Form 4
2026-05-11Noonan Anne PdirectorAward / grant2,9752,975Form 4
2026-05-11MOORTHY GANESHdirectorAward / grant2,9758,990Form 4
2026-05-11Kuehn Christopher JdirectorAward / grant2,9752,975Form 4
2026-05-11Kissire Deborah J.directorAward / grant2,9754,075Form 4
2026-05-11Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant2,9753,031Form 4
2026-05-11Koenig MichaeldirectorAward / grant2,9758,320Form 4
2026-05-11GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorAward / grant4,67626,053Form 4
2026-05-09Koenig MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax1,0135,345Form 4
2026-05-09Kuehn Christopher JdirectorAward / grant3,3763,376Form 4
2026-05-09Kissire Deborah J.directorAward / grant3,3769,301Form 4
2026-05-09Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant3,37612,896Form 4
2026-05-09Rucker Kim K.W.directorDisposition3,37656Form 4
2026-05-09Kuehn Christopher JdirectorDisposition3,3760Form 4
2026-05-09Rucker Kim K.W.directorDisposition3,37656Form 4
2026-05-09Kissire Deborah J.directorDisposition3,3761,100Form 4
2026-03-10IHLENFELD JAY VdirectorAward / grant610,241Form 4
2026-03-10Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant69,520Form 4
2026-03-10GALANTE EDWARD GdirectorAward / grant46,807Form 4
2026-03-10Kissire Deborah J.directorAward / grant45,925Form 4
2026-03-10Hill KathryndirectorAward / grant11,141Form 4
2026-02-27Richardson Scott AdirectorAward / grant50,623123,419Form 4
2026-02-27Duffie Ashley BofficerAward / grant14,56114,561Form 4
2026-02-27Duffie Ashley BofficerAward / grant10,43131,325Form 4
2026-02-27McGilvray Aaron MofficerAward / grant2,3552,355Form 4
2026-02-27McGilvray Aaron MofficerAward / grant1,68711,991Form 4
2026-02-27Murray Mark ChristopherofficerAward / grant10,43128,279Form 4
2026-02-27Murray Mark ChristopherofficerAward / grant14,56114,561Form 4
2026-02-27Kyrish ChuckofficerAward / grant21,88421,884Form 4
2026-02-27Kyrish ChuckofficerAward / grant15,67826,814Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-04-072023-03-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-10-072022-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-10-072022-09-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-10-072022-09-29$15–50K
Kathy ManningHousesale2022-09-142022-08-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-09-082022-08-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.