CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.42 · now $26.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CDRE has typically landed between $22.25 and $31.60 — a range of −15.8% to +19.6% from the issuance price $26.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,199 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CDRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.25worst · -15.8%$31.6best · +19.6%
  • now $26.42 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.77 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.89–$28.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.25–$31.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,199 windows spanning 2021-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-27−33.8%−33.8%+3.8%
2026-03-02−33.4%−36.2%+0.0%
2026-02-26−31.4%−31.4%+5.4%
3 best
2021-11-04+44.3%+0.0%+44.3%
2022-07-13+29.7%−3.7%+29.7%
2021-11-05+29.6%+0.0%+44.2%

1,199 overlapping windows · 2021-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+4.2%
n=5
Feb
60%
−0.1%
n=5
Mar
60%
−6.1%
n=5
Apr
20%
−2.3%
n=5
May
40%
+3.2%
n=5
Jun
40%
−5.3%
n=5
Jul
100%
+9.8%
n=5
Aug
40%
+2.1%
n=5
Sep
60%
+1.5%
n=5
Oct
75%
+8.9%
n=4
Nov
50%
+0.1%
n=4
Dec
40%
−0.5%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$46$262026-08-25: 2 insider sales, $3.2M — KANDERS WARREN B …2026-08-24: 2 insider sales, $3.3M — KANDERS WARREN B …2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $2.9M — Williams Brad …2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — KANDERS WARREN B2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $697K — KANDERS WARREN B2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $717K — KANDERS WARREN B2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $2.8M — KANDERS WARREN B2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — KANDERS WARREN B2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — KANDERS WARREN B2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — KANDERS WARREN B2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $895K — Browers Blaine2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Williams Brad2025-11-17: 2 insider sales, $52.4M — KANDERS WARREN B …2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Williams Brad2025-10-24: 1 insider sale, $178K — Williams Brad2025-10-14: 1 insider sale, $165K — Williams Brad2025-09-23: 1 insider sale, $153K — Williams Brad2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $153K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $343K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $53.6M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $6.3M2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $8.6M2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $9.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed same daydirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Browers Blaine — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KANDERS WARREN B — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2025-10-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams Brad — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale55,345 @ $31.54$1.7M−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,461,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale44,655 @ $32.28$1.4M−0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,417,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale65,431 @ $33.20$2.2M−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,551,608Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale34,569 @ $33.65$1.2M−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,517,039Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerSale88,638 @ $33.24$2.9M−57.7% of holding−18.3%not yet — horizon still open65,081Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerSale104 @ $34.34$4K−0.1% of holding−18.3%not yet — horizon still open153,719Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $27.43$1.4M−0.5% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open9,617,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $27.86$697K−0.3% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open9,667,039Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-17KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $28.68$717K−0.3% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open9,692,039Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $28.19$2.8M−1.0% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open9,717,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $30.03$3.0M−1.0% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open9,817,039Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $31.93$3.2M−1.0% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open9,917,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $31.40$3.1M−1.0% of holding−15.3%not yet — horizon still open10,017,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Browers BlaineofficerSale20,435 @ $43.79$895K−24.5% of holding−5.8%−44.5%63,142Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10Williams BradofficerSale24,000 @ $42.99$1.0M−30.5% of holding−2.6%−36.9%54,719Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale1,257,038 @ $39.00$49.0M−99.9% of holding−4.6%−42.4%1,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale86,903 @ $39.00$3.4M−0.9% of holding−4.6%−42.4%10,129,289Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13Williams BradofficerSale27,370 @ $43.62$1.2M−25.8% of holding−4.5%−42.4%78,719Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Williams BradofficerSale4,132 @ $43.00$178K−3.7% of holding−4.6%−37.0%106,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-14Williams BradofficerSale4,132 @ $40.00$165K−3.6% of holding+2.3%−32.1%110,221Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-23Williams BradofficerSale4,132 @ $37.00$153K−3.5% of holding+10.5%−12.0%114,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $32.78$820K−0.2% of holding−2.6%+13.5%10,216,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.01$1.7M−0.5% of holding−6.1%+10.5%10,241,192Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.95$1.7M−0.5% of holding−9.9%+7.6%10,291,192Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-04KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $33.99$850K−0.2% of holding−11.1%+11.0%10,341,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $33.51$3.4M−1.0% of holding−9.3%+13.3%10,366,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $32.75$1.6M−0.5% of holding−8.3%+14.3%10,466,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-28KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $32.70$1.6M−0.5% of holding−6.8%+15.5%10,516,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.11$1.7M−0.5% of holding−7.1%+9.1%10,566,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $32.65$1.6M−0.5% of holding−8.5%+9.3%10,616,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.19$1.7M−0.5% of holding−4.9%+7.3%10,666,192Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-20KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $34.86$3.5M−0.9% of holding−6.4%+3.7%10,716,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-21KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $30.98$1.5M−0.5% of holding+0.8%−7.6%10,816,192Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-20KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $31.88$1.6M−0.5% of holding+0.2%−11.9%10,866,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-19KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $31.73$3.2M−0.9% of holding+1.9%−10.8%10,916,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale50,000 @ $32.20$1.6M−0.5% of holding+0.8%−16.0%11,016,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $32.38$3.2M−0.9% of holding+0.6%−14.7%11,066,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale100,000 @ $33.86$3.4M−0.9% of holding−3.6%−20.4%11,166,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale12,133 @ $36.22$439K−0.1% of holding+6.1%−8.0%11,395,078Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-13KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.29$882K−0.2% of holding+3.9%−3.4%11,407,211Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-11KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.32$883K−0.2% of holding−3.5%−2.8%11,432,211Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.05$876K−0.2% of holding−5.4%−0.9%11,457,211Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.49$887K−0.2% of holding−5.5%+2.6%11,482,211Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-06KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.67$892K−0.2% of holding−6.3%+2.4%11,507,211Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-05KANDERS WARREN BdirectorSale25,000 @ $35.83$896K−0.2% of holding−7.6%−1.8%11,532,211Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-03Williams BradofficerSale25,000 @ $34.24$856K−18.4% of holding−4.4%+0.2%110,918Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerOption exercise42,770107,851Form 4
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerOption exercise45,972153,823Form 4
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerOption exercise42,7700Form 4
2026-08-17Williams BradofficerOption exercise45,9720Form 4
2026-06-16QUIGLEY WILLIAM G IIIdirectorAward / grant17,39317,393Form 4
2026-06-16Kissel Mary E.directorAward / grant17,39317,393Form 4
2026-06-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant261,000261,000Form 4
2026-06-16Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant48,50048,500Form 4
2026-06-16Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant69,50069,500Form 4
2026-06-16Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant92,50092,500Form 4
2026-06-16Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant115,000115,000Form 4
2026-06-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant373,000373,000Form 4
2026-06-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant496,500496,500Form 4
2026-06-16KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant616,500616,500Form 4
2026-06-16Williams BradofficerAward / grant57,50057,500Form 4
2026-06-16Williams BradofficerAward / grant82,00082,000Form 4
2026-06-16Williams BradofficerAward / grant109,500109,500Form 4
2026-06-16Williams BradofficerAward / grant136,000136,000Form 4
2026-06-16SOKOLOW NICOLASdirectorAward / grant17,39317,393Form 4
2026-06-16Norton HamishdirectorAward / grant17,39317,393Form 4
2026-03-30KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant144,735144,735Form 4
2026-03-30Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant15,33315,333Form 4
2026-03-30Williams BradofficerAward / grant59,59759,597Form 4
2026-03-30KANDERS WARREN BdirectorAward / grant44,68444,684Form 4
2026-03-30Williams BradofficerAward / grant18,39918,399Form 4
2026-03-30Browers BlaineofficerAward / grant49,66449,664Form 4
2026-03-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorWithheld for tax4,40022,888Form 4
2026-03-18Browers BlaineofficerWithheld for tax1,29269,653Form 4
2026-03-18Williams BradofficerWithheld for tax1,09865,081Form 4
2026-03-18Williams BradofficerOption exercise4,5084,508Form 4
2026-03-18Browers BlaineofficerOption exercise3,2823,282Form 4
2026-03-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorOption exercise11,18011,180Form 4
2026-03-18Browers BlaineofficerOption exercise3,28270,945Form 4
2026-03-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorOption exercise11,18027,288Form 4
2026-03-18KANDERS WARREN BdirectorOption exercise11,18027,288Form 4
2026-03-18Williams BradofficerOption exercise4,50866,179Form 4
2026-03-18Williams BradofficerOption exercise4,50866,179Form 4
2026-03-18Browers BlaineofficerOption exercise3,28270,945Form 4
2026-03-13KANDERS WARREN BdirectorWithheld for tax4,94116,108Form 4
2026-03-13KANDERS WARREN BdirectorWithheld for tax4,5088,493Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.