CDPCOPT Defense Propertiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.32 · now $34.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CDP has typically landed between $31.21 and $37.81 — a range of −9.1% to +10.2% from the issuance price $34.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CDP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.21worst · -9.1%$37.81best · +10.2%
  • now $34.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.62 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.21–$36.03
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.21–$37.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−42.2%−42.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−41.2%−44.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-20+56.4%+0.0%+62.7%
2020-03-18+52.7%−4.3%+55.7%
2020-03-23+47.9%+0.0%+54.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.7%
n=19
May
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−2.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
44%
−0.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$38$262026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — PICKETT C TAYLOR2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $127K — DENTON ROBERT L2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $181K — HAWKINS PHILIP L2025-09-17: 2 insider sales, $242K — Trimberger Lisa G …2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $242K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $181K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector PICKETT C TAYLOR — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DENTON ROBERT L — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HAWKINS PHILIP L — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Trimberger Lisa G — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Trimberger Lisa G — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-29PICKETT C TAYLORdirectorSale31,798 @ $32.25$1.0M−67.7% of holding+15.5%not yet — horizon still open15,188Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-26DENTON ROBERT LdirectorSale3,922 @ $32.38$127K−50.8% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open3,803Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23HAWKINS PHILIP LdirectorSale5,536 @ $32.71$181K−26.7% of holding+0.5%−0.9%15,188Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Trimberger Lisa GdirectorSale4,896 @ $30.72$150K−19.4% of holding−7.9%+5.5%20,287Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Trimberger Lisa GdirectorSale3,000 @ $30.52$92K−100.0% of holding−7.9%+5.5%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15DENTON ROBERT LdirectorSale4,398 @ $26.70$117K−100.0% of holding+3.0%−6.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Snider Britt A.officerPurchase1,000 @ $26.93$27K+50.0% of holding+4.1%−0.5%3,000Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion1,000139,264Form 4
2026-07-29DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion0140,264Form 4
2026-06-26DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion0141,764Form 4
2026-05-14PICKETT C TAYLORdirectorAward / grant7,51139,126Form 4
2026-05-14HAWKINS PHILIP LdirectorAward / grant7,44838,988Form 4
2026-05-14Trimberger Lisa GdirectorAward / grant3,80324,090Form 4
2026-05-14Miller Essye B.directorAward / grant3,8033,803Form 4
2026-05-14Long Letitia AdirectorAward / grant3,80324,003Form 4
2026-05-14DENTON ROBERT LdirectorAward / grant3,8037,725Form 4
2026-05-14DENTON ROBERT LdirectorAward / grant3,8037,725Form 4
2026-05-14PICKETT C TAYLORdirectorAward / grant7,51139,126Form 4
2026-05-14HAWKINS PHILIP LdirectorAward / grant7,44838,988Form 4
2026-05-14Owens Raymond LeedirectorAward / grant3,80324,003Form 4
2026-05-14Long Letitia AdirectorAward / grant3,80324,003Form 4
2026-05-14Trimberger Lisa GdirectorAward / grant3,80324,090Form 4
2026-05-14Miller Essye B.directorAward / grant3,8033,803Form 4
2026-05-14Owens Raymond LeedirectorAward / grant3,80324,003Form 4
2026-05-13DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion0142,764Form 4
2026-04-29DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion0143,264Form 4
2026-03-03DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion2,000144,264Form 4
2026-03-01Myers Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax3518,910Form 4
2026-03-01Myers Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax3008,610Form 4
2026-03-01Myers Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax2999,261Form 4
2026-03-01BUDORICK STEPHEN EdirectorAward / grant61,1141,124,411Form 4
2026-03-01Snider Britt A.officerAward / grant3,73456,529Form 4
2026-03-01Snider Britt A.officerAward / grant11,20314,203Form 4
2026-03-01Snider Britt A.officerAward / grant3,73456,529Form 4
2026-03-01Mifsud AnthonyofficerAward / grant8,149322,600Form 4
2026-03-01Myers Matthew TofficerAward / grant2,39011,000Form 4
2026-03-01Mifsud AnthonyofficerAward / grant8,14967,834Form 4
2026-03-01Mifsud AnthonyofficerAward / grant8,149322,600Form 4
2026-03-01Mifsud AnthonyofficerAward / grant8,14967,834Form 4
2026-03-01Myers Matthew TofficerAward / grant2,39011,000Form 4
2026-03-01Snider Britt A.officerAward / grant11,20314,203Form 4
2026-02-10DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion2,000146,264Form 4
2026-02-05BUDORICK STEPHEN EdirectorAward / grant179,7041,063,297Form 4
2026-02-05Mifsud AnthonyofficerAward / grant55,217314,451Form 4
2025-12-23DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion500148,264Form 4
2025-12-03DENTON ROBERT LdirectorConversion1,500148,764Form 4
2025-12-01Myers Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax2509,560Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-16$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.