Issued 2026-08-13 at $323.77 · now $323.77 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, CDNS has typically landed between $282.46 and $378.26 — a range of −12.8% to +16.8% from the issuance price $323.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($323.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CDNS has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $323.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $323.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $329.04 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $309.76–$348.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $282.46–$378.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −55.1% | −57.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-15 | +51.0% | +0.0% | +64.4% |
| 2008-12-12 | +49.1% | −4.4% | +57.1% |
| 2020-03-18 | +44.8% | +0.0% | +44.8% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$146.48
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$146.74
- Analyst target · range $370.00–$450.00$425.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$323.77
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 1,520 @ $350.99 | $534K | −1.1% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 133,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 1,525 @ $348.90 | $532K | −1.1% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 136,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 1,520 @ $349.11 | $531K | −1.1% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 131,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 1,215 @ $349.70 | $425K | −0.9% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 134,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 1,120 @ $351.40 | $394K | −0.9% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 129,213 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 860 @ $350.14 | $301K | −0.7% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 130,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Sale | 650 @ $351.64 | $229K | −0.5% of holding | −5.0% | −21.7% | 132,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
5 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Option exercise | 4,910 | 137,623 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Scannell Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 181 | 26,589 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | TENG CHIN-CHI | officer | Option exercise | 4,910 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Cunningham Paul | officer | Gift | 1,000 | 103,499 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Scannell Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 274 | 26,770 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Byron Donalds | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.