CDNACareDx, IncHealthcare · Medical - Diagnostics & Researchas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.55 · now $53.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CDNA has typically landed between $38.36 and $72.61 — a range of −28.4% to +35.6% from the issuance price $53.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,039 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CDNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$38.36worst · -28.4%$72.61best · +35.6%
  • now $53.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $53.11 (-0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.77–$60.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.36–$72.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,039 windows spanning 2014-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2017-03-28−49.3%−49.3%+0.0%
2017-03-07−48.9%−48.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−48.7%−48.7%+4.1%
3 best
2017-07-27+129.2%−0.8%+129.2%
2017-07-31+124.1%+0.0%+124.1%
2017-08-08+121.6%+0.0%+122.4%

3,039 overlapping windows · 2014-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.2%
n=12
Feb
33%
−0.4%
n=12
Mar
25%
−8.2%
n=12
Apr
33%
−4.8%
n=12
May
67%
+12.8%
n=12
Jun
75%
+10.1%
n=12
Jul
67%
+8.2%
n=12
Aug
69%
+16.3%
n=13
Sep
46%
−5.5%
n=13
Oct
58%
+3.0%
n=12
Nov
67%
+12.9%
n=12
Dec
58%
+0.4%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$54$122026-08-05: 3 insider sales, $1.1M — Bickerstaff George, Novack Jeffrey Adam …2026-08-04: 2 insider sales, $2.9M — Goldberg Michael, COURNOYER CHRISTINE2026-07-16: 4 insider sales, $5.5M — Hanna John Walter JR, Valantine Hannah …2026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Hanna John Walter JR2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $3K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-06-15: 2 insider sales, $705K — Hanna John Walter JR, Valantine Hannah2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $528K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $116K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $129K — TORRES ARTHUR A2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $86K — TORRES ARTHUR A2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $56K — Novack Jeffrey Adam2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $217K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $91K — Novack Jeffrey Adam2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $408K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-01-21: 1 insider sale, $4K — Hanna John Walter JR2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $214K — Hanna John Walter JR2025-12-04: 2 insider sales, $140K — Novack Jeffrey Adam …2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $42K — Novack Jeffrey Adam2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $34K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $42K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $140K2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $626K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $91K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $217K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $270K2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $2.5M2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $5.5M2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $3.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bickerstaff George — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Goldberg Michael — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector COURNOYER CHRISTINE — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Valantine Hannah — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Valantine Hannah — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Valantine Hannah — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TORRES ARTHUR A — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TORRES ARTHUR A — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hanna John Walter JR — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Novack Jeffrey Adam — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Bickerstaff GeorgedirectorSale20,000 @ $46.28$926K−13.0% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open134,061Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale2,188 @ $46.15$101K−2.0% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open106,575Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale500 @ $46.75$23K−0.5% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open106,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Goldberg MichaeldirectorSale44,700 @ $47.06$2.1M−42.0% of holding+6.1%not yet — horizon still open61,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04COURNOYER CHRISTINEdirectorSale16,000 @ $46.94$751K−27.1% of holding+6.1%not yet — horizon still open42,943Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-16Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale68,000 @ $39.01$2.7M−9.4% of holding+8.9%not yet — horizon still open653,448Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale50,000 @ $36.11$1.8M−6.5% of holding+8.9%not yet — horizon still open721,448Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorSale28,679 @ $36.14$1.0M−43.8% of holding+8.9%not yet — horizon still open36,786Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorSale100 @ $36.55$4K−0.3% of holding+8.9%not yet — horizon still open36,686Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-29Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale39,900 @ $29.24$1.2M−5.7% of holding+22.5%not yet — horizon still open661,959Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale100 @ $29.00$3K−0.0% of holding+22.4%not yet — horizon still open661,959Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale17,683 @ $24.03$425K−2.7% of holding+67.8%not yet — horizon still open631,959Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Valantine HannahdirectorSale12,103 @ $23.11$280K−24.8% of holding+67.8%not yet — horizon still open36,686Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale21,998 @ $24.02$528K−3.3% of holding+20.1%not yet — horizon still open649,642Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-04Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale4,835 @ $24.00$116K−0.7% of holding+23.4%not yet — horizon still open671,640Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15TORRES ARTHUR AdirectorSale6,484 @ $19.89$129K−14.4% of holding+14.9%not yet — horizon still open38,665Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14TORRES ARTHUR AdirectorSale4,086 @ $20.97$86K−8.3% of holding+16.6%not yet — horizon still open45,149Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale2,688 @ $20.68$56K−2.3% of holding+7.1%not yet — horizon still open113,924Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-16Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale10,282 @ $21.12$217K−1.5% of holding−16.3%not yet — horizon still open676,475Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-03Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale4,441 @ $20.56$91K−3.4% of holding−7.9%+108.3%125,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale19,280 @ $21.16$408K−3.1% of holding−9.7%+68.9%597,405Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-21Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale200 @ $21.00$4K−0.0% of holding−10.3%+72.3%616,685Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15Hanna John Walter JRdirectorSale10,156 @ $21.05$214K−1.6% of holding−4.1%+78.8%616,885Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-04Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale7,007 @ $19.15$134K−6.7% of holding−4.5%+4.5%98,211Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale286 @ $19.75$6K−0.3% of holding−4.5%+4.5%97,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale2,688 @ $15.52$42K−2.5% of holding+21.4%+26.4%105,218Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-05Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale2,688 @ $12.79$34K−2.3% of holding−1.4%+37.4%112,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07Maag PeterdirectorSale10,000 @ $18.58$186K−3.1% of holding−31.5%−4.1%308,846Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-18Valantine HannahdirectorSale10,570 @ $19.16$203K−21.3% of holding−38.6%−10.6%38,994Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-17Maag PeterdirectorSale10,000 @ $19.24$192K−3.0% of holding−44.3%−15.1%318,846Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-11HAGSTROM WILLIAM AdirectorSale19,391 @ $19.90$386K−26.4% of holding−4.5%−17.6%53,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28HAGSTROM WILLIAM AdirectorSale30,000 @ $17.45$523K−35.7% of holding+4.6%−13.6%53,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12COURNOYER CHRISTINEdirectorSale29,136 @ $15.96$465K−44.0% of holding+19.6%−15.5%37,045Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06COURNOYER CHRISTINEdirectorSale16,700 @ $14.13$236K−31.1% of holding+26.2%−19.1%37,045Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale2,688 @ $14.70$40K−2.2% of holding+21.5%−24.6%121,350Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-30Maag PeterdirectorSale13,281 @ $17.23$229K−4.0% of holding−5.6%−40.1%316,743Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale924 @ $17.72$16K−0.7% of holding−27.9%−50.6%126,911Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Jain AbhishekofficerSale265 @ $17.72$5K−0.1% of holding−27.9%−50.6%337,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10Bickerstaff GeorgedirectorSale20,000 @ $18.36$367K−16.3% of holding+4.9%−42.4%103,027Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale3,512 @ $23.30$82K−3.2% of holding−13.4%−49.1%104,677Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerSale1,917 @ $26.00$50K−1.7% of holding−8.3%−23.2%110,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-12Kennedy KeithofficerWithheld for tax8,220211,704Form 4
2026-09-12Meng JessicaofficerWithheld for tax6,688161,599Form 4
2026-08-01Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerWithheld for tax2,872108,763Form 4
2026-07-16Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise118,000771,448Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise16,04860,340Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise7,60644,292Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise5,12565,465Form 4
2026-07-16Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise118,000512,706Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise7,6060Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise16,0480Form 4
2026-07-16Valantine HannahdirectorOption exercise5,12524,011Form 4
2026-07-02Goldberg MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,746106,438Form 4
2026-07-01Hanna John Walter JRdirectorWithheld for tax8,511653,448Form 4
2026-07-01Kennedy KeithofficerWithheld for tax2,930219,924Form 4
2026-07-01Meng JessicaofficerWithheld for tax2,411168,287Form 4
2026-07-01Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerWithheld for tax997111,635Form 4
2026-06-29Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise39,900701,859Form 4
2026-06-29Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise39,900630,706Form 4
2026-06-26Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise100662,059Form 4
2026-06-26Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise100670,606Form 4
2026-06-15Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise15,676661,959Form 4
2026-06-15Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise15,676670,706Form 4
2026-06-12COURNOYER CHRISTINEdirectorAward / grant9,79558,943Form 4
2026-06-12Bickerstaff GeorgedirectorAward / grant9,795154,061Form 4
2026-06-12Cohen Fred EdirectorAward / grant9,795165,060Form 4
2026-06-12Goldberg MichaeldirectorAward / grant9,795195,737Form 4
2026-06-12Riggsbee Richard BryandirectorAward / grant9,79539,312Form 4
2026-06-12Valantine HannahdirectorAward / grant9,79548,789Form 4
2026-06-12Gunasekaran SureshdirectorAward / grant9,79537,248Form 4
2026-06-11Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise13,618646,283Form 4
2026-06-11Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise13,618686,382Form 4
2026-06-06Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerWithheld for tax1,292112,632Form 4
2026-06-04Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise706632,665Form 4
2026-06-04Hanna John Walter JRdirectorOption exercise706700,000Form 4
2026-05-01Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerWithheld for tax2,873116,612Form 4
2026-04-20Kennedy KeithofficerAward / grant24,134221,548Form 4
2026-04-15Hanna John Walter JRdirectorWithheld for tax62,049686,757Form 4
2026-04-06Novack Jeffrey AdamofficerWithheld for tax1,892119,485Form 4
2026-04-02Goldberg MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,981185,942Form 4
2026-04-01Hanna John Walter JRdirectorWithheld for tax35,037748,806Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.