CCXIUChurchill Capital Corp XI UnitsFinancial Services · Financial - Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.50 · now $12.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CCXIU has typically landed between $10.63 and $21.40 — a range of −15.0% to +71.2% from the issuance price $12.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

166 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-12-172026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CCXIU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.63worst · -15.0%$21.4best · +71.2%
  • now $12.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.54 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.43$12.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.63$21.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 166 windows spanning 2025-12-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-08-17−30.2%−30.2%+0.0%
2026-08-13−26.8%−26.8%+4.9%
2026-08-11−22.4%−22.4%+2.9%
3 best
2026-06-02+93.5%+0.0%+93.5%
2026-05-29+76.4%+0.0%+76.4%
2026-06-03+74.1%−0.8%+91.8%

166 overlapping windows · 2025-12-172026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$102025-12-18: 1 insider purchase, $5.0M — Klein Michael Stuart2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $5.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Klein Michael Stuart — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-18Klein Michael StuartdirectorPurchase500,000 @ $10.00$5.0M+3.6% of holding−0.4%−4.9%14,300,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.