CCLCarnival Corporation & plcConsumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.35 · now $22.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CCL has typically landed between $17.11 and $28.32 — a range of −23.5% to +26.7% from the issuance price $22.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.11worst · -23.5%$28.32best · +26.7%
  • now $22.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.38 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.84–$24.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.11–$28.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−78.1%−78.1%+1.0%
2020-02-19−76.7%−78.3%+0.0%
2020-03-04−75.5%−75.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+84.2%−9.3%+84.2%
2020-04-02+80.1%+0.0%+109.5%
2020-11-04+75.8%+0.0%+75.8%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$36.1B
market cap
$2.22
EPS (TTM)
11.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-28
next earnings
Revenue$26.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr22.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.28
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $22.35$-376.25$84.67
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-344.46
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$52.88
  • Analyst target · range $30.00–$42.00$36.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$22.35

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−0.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
42%
−4.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.0%
n=19
May
53%
+1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.5%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.9%
n=18
Dec
67%
+4.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$222026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — deynes bettina alejandra2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $5 — SUBOTNICK STUART2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $314K — BAND SIR JONATHON2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $300 — BAND SIR JONATHON2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $12.0M — Bernstein David2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $372K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $12.0M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $3002026-04: 1 open-market sale, $314K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer deynes bettina alejandra — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SUBOTNICK STUART — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BAND SIR JONATHON — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BAND SIR JONATHON — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bernstein David — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28deynes bettina alejandraofficerSale43,058 @ $28.10$1.2M−38.3% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open69,238Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-11SUBOTNICK STUARTdirectorSale0 @ $25.22$5−0.0% of holding+4.6%not yet — horizon still open132,421Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01BAND SIR JONATHONdirectorSale11,988 @ $26.19$314K−18.6% of holding−9.7%not yet — horizon still open52,601Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31BAND SIR JONATHONdirectorSale12 @ $24.98$300−0.0% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open64,589Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Bernstein DavidofficerSale361,790 @ $33.22$12.0M−76.3% of holding−24.2%−28.3%112,068Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-05BAND SIR JONATHONdirectorSale12,500 @ $29.75$372K−16.3% of holding+5.1%−0.3%64,406Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Bernstein DavidofficerSale105,010 @ $22.84$2.4M−42.9% of holding+1.6%−0.8%140,053Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift248,01513,406,463Form 4
2026-08-25ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift248,01513,406,463Form 4
2026-08-25ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift248,01513,406,463Form 4
2026-08-25ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift248,01513,406,463Form 4
2026-08-24ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift91,02813,406,463Form 4
2026-08-24ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift91,02813,406,463Form 4
2026-08-24ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift91,02813,406,463Form 4
2026-08-24ARISON MICKY MEIRdirectorGift91,02813,406,463Form 4
2026-05-11Deeble HelendirectorWithheld for tax3,62587,606Form 4
2026-05-11BAND SIR JONATHONdirectorWithheld for tax3,47156,842Form 4
2026-05-11Lahey KatiedirectorWithheld for tax61685,125Form 4
2026-05-11SUBOTNICK STUARTdirectorWithheld for tax616132,421Form 4
2026-05-11cahilly jason glendirectorWithheld for tax61687,821Form 4
2026-05-11WEIL LAURA AdirectorWithheld for tax616132,120Form 4
2026-05-11Connors Nelda JdirectorWithheld for tax61630,419Form 4
2026-05-11Gearhart Jeffrey JdirectorWithheld for tax61680,108Form 4
2026-05-08MIGUEZ ENRIQUEofficerAward / grant31,39960,668Form 4
2026-05-08SUBOTNICK STUARTdirectorAward / grant7,712133,037Form 4
2026-05-08BAND SIR JONATHONdirectorAward / grant7,71260,313Form 4
2026-05-08Deeble HelendirectorAward / grant7,71291,231Form 4
2026-05-08deynes bettina alejandraofficerAward / grant20,778112,296Form 4
2026-05-08Gearhart Jeffrey JdirectorAward / grant7,71280,724Form 4
2026-05-08Ljoen Lars JakobofficerAward / grant21,79571,871Form 4
2026-05-08Bernstein DavidofficerAward / grant49,894144,906Form 4
2026-05-08cahilly jason glendirectorAward / grant7,71288,437Form 4
2026-05-08Connors Nelda JdirectorAward / grant7,71231,035Form 4
2026-05-08Lahey KatiedirectorAward / grant7,71285,741Form 4
2026-05-08weinstein joshua iandirectorAward / grant190,965421,845Form 4
2026-05-08WEIL LAURA AdirectorAward / grant7,712132,736Form 4
2026-05-08WEISENBURGER RANDALL JdirectorAward / grant7,712410,009Form 4
2026-04-21weinstein joshua iandirectorWithheld for tax34,613318,385Form 4
2026-04-21weinstein joshua iandirectorWithheld for tax22,185352,998Form 4
2026-04-21Bernstein DavidofficerWithheld for tax9,73495,012Form 4
2026-04-21Bernstein DavidofficerWithheld for tax7,578104,746Form 4
2026-04-21MIGUEZ ENRIQUEofficerWithheld for tax4,46540,534Form 4
2026-04-21deynes bettina alejandraofficerWithheld for tax3,91891,518Form 4
2026-04-21Ljoen Lars JakobofficerWithheld for tax3,05950,076Form 4
2026-04-21MIGUEZ ENRIQUEofficerWithheld for tax2,64944,999Form 4
2026-04-21deynes bettina alejandraofficerWithheld for tax2,30495,436Form 4
2026-04-21Ljoen Lars JakobofficerWithheld for tax1,71053,135Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-09$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.