CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $112.17 · now $112.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CCK has typically landed between $98.20 and $124.69 — a range of −12.5% to +11.2% from the issuance price $112.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($112.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CCK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $112.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$98.2worst · -12.5%$124.69best · +11.2%
  • now $112.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $113.52 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $107.74–$119.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $98.2–$124.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.8%−44.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−40.5%−40.5%+0.4%
2020-02-13−38.8%−38.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+36.4%+0.0%+44.0%
2008-11-20+31.7%+0.0%+38.5%
2008-12-01+30.5%+0.0%+32.2%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
74%
+4.0%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.6%
n=19
May
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
50%
+1.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$121$892026-07-15: 1 insider sale, $827K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $801K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-04-08: 1 insider sale, $788K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — NOVAES DJALMA JR2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Gifford Gerard H2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $830K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $788K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $890K — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — NOVAES DJALMA JR2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $3.7M — DONAHUE TIMOTHY J2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $5.0M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $3.8M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $5.8M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $827K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed same daydirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed same daydirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed same daydirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NOVAES DJALMA JR — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gifford Gerard H — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NOVAES DJALMA JR — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONAHUE TIMOTHY J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale7,500 @ $110.29$827K−1.7% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open428,570Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-23DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale15,000 @ $105.00$1.6M−3.3% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open436,070Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-15DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale7,500 @ $106.85$801K−1.6% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open451,070Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-08DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale7,500 @ $105.00$788K−1.6% of holding−13.9%not yet — horizon still open458,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23NOVAES DJALMA JRofficerSale29,734 @ $114.80$3.4M−25.2% of holding−7.5%−12.9%88,052Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Gifford Gerard HofficerSale13,373 @ $113.97$1.5M−11.2% of holding−7.2%−13.1%106,310Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-18DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale7,500 @ $110.67$830K−1.6% of holding−7.3%−11.2%474,736Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-29DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale7,500 @ $105.00$788K−1.5% of holding+12.4%+1.6%482,236Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-05DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale29,024 @ $105.00$3.0M−6.6% of holding+9.2%−4.9%411,556Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-18DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale8,476 @ $105.01$890K−1.9% of holding−1.4%−5.8%440,580Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16NOVAES DJALMA JRofficerSale19,754 @ $101.02$2.0M−16.9% of holding+0.5%−10.2%96,841Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale13,000 @ $100.52$1.3M−2.8% of holding−11.8%+6.3%449,056Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorSale37,000 @ $100.56$3.7M−7.4% of holding−10.3%+5.6%462,056Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-25Gifford Gerard HofficerSale8,222 @ $102.93$846K−6.3% of holding−3.3%−7.5%122,585Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06Madeksza MattofficerSale1,500 @ $99.00$149K−3.5% of holding+3.6%−16.6%41,302Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Kalaus Christy L.officerSale2,130 @ $99.41$212K−32.1% of holding+1.0%−15.5%4,500Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Gifford Gerard HofficerSale7,000 @ $97.00$679K−4.9% of holding−3.6%−20.3%135,014Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Rost John MofficerWithheld for tax14618,751Form 4
2026-08-03NOVAES DJALMA JRofficerWithheld for tax10486,565Form 4
2026-08-03Gavin Gary MofficerWithheld for tax6134,814Form 4
2026-07-29Owens B CraigdirectorAward / grant35112,073Form 4
2026-07-29HAGGE STEPHEN JdirectorAward / grant35111,652Form 4
2026-07-29Snyder Angela MdirectorAward / grant3517,156Form 4
2026-07-29Sweitzer Caesar FdirectorAward / grant35125,228Form 4
2026-07-29WILLIAMS MARSHA CdirectorAward / grant3518,142Form 4
2026-07-29Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorAward / grant3514,230Form 4
2026-07-29DOSS MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant351770Form 4
2026-07-29FEARON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant35112,829Form 4
2026-07-29Funk Andrea J.directorAward / grant35117,878Form 4
2026-05-15Gavin Gary MofficerWithheld for tax3,11334,875Form 4
2026-05-15Madeksza MattofficerWithheld for tax98450,806Form 4
2026-05-15Rost John MofficerWithheld for tax78518,897Form 4
2026-05-06Snyder Angela MdirectorAward / grant4176,805Form 4
2026-05-06HAGGE STEPHEN JdirectorAward / grant41711,301Form 4
2026-05-06FEARON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant41712,478Form 4
2026-05-06Funk Andrea J.directorAward / grant41717,527Form 4
2026-05-06DOSS MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant417417Form 4
2026-05-06Owens B CraigdirectorAward / grant41711,680Form 4
2026-05-06WILLIAMS MARSHA CdirectorAward / grant4177,763Form 4
2026-05-06Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorAward / grant4173,865Form 4
2026-05-06Sweitzer Caesar FdirectorAward / grant41724,877Form 4
2026-04-17Rost John MofficerAward / grant1,81119,682Form 4
2026-04-15Garry KevinofficerAward / grant9004,500Form 4
2026-02-26DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorWithheld for tax15,033466,070Form 4
2026-02-26Gifford Gerard HofficerWithheld for tax5,915102,900Form 4
2026-02-26Dickstein Adam J.officerDisposition2,48566,720Form 4
2026-02-26CLOTHIER KEVIN CHARLESofficerWithheld for tax2,46980,144Form 4
2026-02-26NOVAES DJALMA JRofficerWithheld for tax2,39986,669Form 4
2026-02-26Madeksza MattofficerWithheld for tax1,75651,790Form 4
2026-02-26Madeksza MattofficerAward / grant74453,546Form 4
2026-02-26NOVAES DJALMA JRofficerAward / grant1,01689,068Form 4
2026-02-26DONAHUE TIMOTHY JdirectorAward / grant6,367481,103Form 4
2026-02-26CLOTHIER KEVIN CHARLESofficerAward / grant1,04682,613Form 4
2026-02-26Dickstein Adam J.officerAward / grant95269,205Form 4
2026-02-26Gifford Gerard HofficerAward / grant2,505108,815Form 4
2026-02-13WILLIAMS MARSHA CdirectorAward / grant3717,320Form 4
2026-02-13HAGGE STEPHEN JdirectorAward / grant37110,884Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2025-06-172025-05-08$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousepurchase2025-02-192025-01-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-03-062024-02-13$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean Jr.Housepurchase2023-09-182023-04-19$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2022-12-292022-11-30$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousesale2022-12-192019-04-11$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousesale2022-12-192019-04-08$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousepurchase2022-12-192018-10-02$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K
Alan S. LowenthalHousesale2022-10-292022-10-21$15–50K
Alan S. LowenthalHousesale2022-10-292022-10-21<$1K
Kathy ManningHousesale2022-09-142022-08-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.