Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.45 · now $3.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CCCC has typically landed between $2.29 and $5.08 — a range of −33.7% to +47.4% from the issuance price $3.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,472 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CCCC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.24 (-6.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.72–$3.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.29–$5.08
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −66.2% | −66.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-03-11 | −65.7% | −65.7% | +13.2% |
| 2022-04-04 | −65.3% | −69.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-06 | +536.4% | −2.5% | +536.4% |
| 2023-12-07 | +493.4% | −3.3% | +531.1% |
| 2023-12-11 | +480.5% | +0.0% | +552.5% |
1,472 overlapping windows · 2020-10-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Cemsidomide + Dexamethasone in Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $2.22 | $22K | −6.0% of holding | −13.6% | +63.0% | 156,382 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Sale | 669 @ $3.15 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −20.7% | −12.3% | 107,805 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-14 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Sale | 490 @ $3.15 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | −26.6% | −16.2% | 110,842 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,397 | 372,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Option exercise | 15,325 | 379,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GROGAN DONNA ROY | director | Award / grant | 3,341 | 74,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Kenneth Carl | director | Award / grant | 2,650 | 71,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fawell Stephen | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Koppikar Utpal | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hughes Owen | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cooper Ronald Harold Wilfred | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Anderson Kenneth Carl | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bessen Laura | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | GROGAN DONNA ROY | director | Award / grant | 62,000 | 62,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Anderson Kenneth Carl | director | Option exercise | 1,070 | 69,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Anderson Kenneth Carl | director | Option exercise | 1,070 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GROGAN DONNA ROY | director | Award / grant | 5,370 | 71,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Anderson Kenneth Carl | director | Award / grant | 4,259 | 68,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Hirsch Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 9,057 | 1,074,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Hirsch Andrew | director | Option exercise | 20,400 | 1,083,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Hirsch Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 39,154 | 1,083,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,579 | 379,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Adams Kendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,381 | 385,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Schick Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,269 | 299,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,269 | 298,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Mossler Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,268 | 71,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Mahaney Paige | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,446 | 336,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Mahaney Paige | officer | Option exercise | 7,050 | 339,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Option exercise | 30,950 | 396,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Option exercise | 20,950 | 306,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Schick Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 20,950 | 307,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Hirsch Andrew | director | Option exercise | 81,725 | 1,123,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Adams Kendra | officer | Option exercise | 30,950 | 400,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Mossler Mark | officer | Option exercise | 9,420 | 75,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Adams Kendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,863 | 400,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Schick Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,735 | 307,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,735 | 306,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Adams Kendra | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 402,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 307,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyle Scott N | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 307,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | REYNO LEONARD | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 396,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Hirsch Andrew | director | Award / grant | 700,000 | 1,123,145 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.