CCAPCrescent Capital BDC, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.88 · now $9.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CCAP has typically landed between $8.79 and $10.81 — a range of −11.1% to +9.4% from the issuance price $9.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,643 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-02-032026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CCAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.79worst · -11.1%$10.81best · +9.4%
  • now $9.88 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.96 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.55$10.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.79$10.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,643 windows spanning 2020-02-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−62.4%−62.4%+0.0%
2020-02-24−60.1%−61.9%+0.0%
2020-02-25−58.8%−61.7%+0.4%
3 best
2020-03-23+71.8%+0.0%+118.9%
2020-03-24+60.3%+0.0%+108.9%
2020-03-25+51.1%+0.0%+103.5%

1,643 overlapping windows · 2020-02-032026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
83%
+4.6%
n=6
Feb
50%
−1.4%
n=6
Mar
43%
−5.2%
n=7
Apr
71%
+2.5%
n=7
May
43%
+0.9%
n=7
Jun
57%
+2.1%
n=7
Jul
71%
+1.4%
n=7
Aug
57%
+2.2%
n=7
Sep
57%
−0.4%
n=7
Oct
33%
−2.3%
n=6
Nov
83%
+3.1%
n=6
Dec
67%
+1.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$102026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $109K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $52K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $470K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $118K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $425K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $159K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $288K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $340K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $430K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $359K — FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO2026-08-19: 2 insider purchases, $49K — Chung Henry, Lombard Gerhard2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $52K — Chung Henry2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $56K — Breaux Jason2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $958K — Strandberg Steven F.2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $11K — Lombard Gerhard2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $27K — Lombard Gerhard2025-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Bouek Kirill2025-08-25: 2 insider purchases, $51K — Barrios Raymond …2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $54K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $27K2026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $1.1M2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $49K2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-09: 6 open-market sales, $3.5M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed same daytenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE CO — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chung Henry — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lombard Gerhard — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chung Henry — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Breaux Jason — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Strandberg Steven F. — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lombard Gerhard — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lombard Gerhard — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bouek Kirill — Purchase on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Barrios Raymond — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Barrios Raymond — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale139,054 @ $10.23$1.4M−3.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,680,307Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-08FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale126,436 @ $10.33$1.3M−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,819,361Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-04FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale10,471 @ $10.39$109K−0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,945,797Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale5,011 @ $10.34$52K−0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,956,268Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-02FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale45,000 @ $10.44$470K−1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,961,279Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale11,285 @ $10.50$118K−0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,006,279Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale40,000 @ $10.62$425K−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,017,564Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale15,000 @ $10.60$159K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,057,564Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale27,195 @ $10.60$288K−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,072,564Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale32,091 @ $10.60$340K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,099,759Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale40,000 @ $10.74$430K−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,131,850Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24FIDELITY & GUARANTY LIFE INSURANCE COtenPercentOwnerSale33,457 @ $10.72$359K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,171,850Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Chung HenrydirectorPurchase2,500 @ $10.89$27K+11.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open23,917Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Lombard GerhardofficerPurchase2,000 @ $10.91$22K+5.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open40,509Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Chung HenrydirectorPurchase4,500 @ $11.45$52K+27.7% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open20,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Breaux JasondirectorPurchase5,000 @ $11.19$56K+10.5% of holding−1.3%not yet — horizon still open52,636Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Strandberg Steven F.directorPurchase85,000 @ $11.28$958K+73.2% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open201,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Lombard GerhardofficerPurchase1,000 @ $11.12$11K+2.7% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open37,373Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17Lombard GerhardofficerPurchase2,000 @ $13.34$27K+6.2% of holding+12.1%−20.5%34,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Bouek KirillofficerPurchase200 @ $15.67$3K+23.3% of holding−7.7%−17.0%1,057Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Barrios RaymondofficerPurchase2,230 @ $15.63$35K+14.0% of holding−4.1%−17.7%18,162Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Barrios RaymondofficerPurchase1,015 @ $15.62$16K+5.6% of holding−4.1%−17.7%19,177Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.