CBUCommunity Bank System, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $62.77 · now $62.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBU has typically landed between $55.20 and $70.78 — a range of −12.1% to +12.8% from the issuance price $62.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($62.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CBU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $62.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.2worst · -12.1%$70.78best · +12.8%
  • now $62.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $62.47 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $59.28–$65.67
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.2–$70.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−28.7%−28.7%+0.0%
2009-02-05−26.9%−26.9%+5.2%
2020-02-20−25.2%−25.2%+0.0%
3 best
2024-06-21+40.2%+0.0%+40.2%
2024-06-25+40.0%+0.0%+40.0%
2009-07-10+39.9%+0.0%+39.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−3.0%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.5%
n=20
May
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Jul
65%
+4.9%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
70%
+3.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.4%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$71$522026-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Singh Savneet2026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $20K — Vaccaro John A2026-08-24: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Hall Brenda M2026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $817K — Bolus Mark J.2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $128K — STICKELS ERIC2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $277K — Whipple John F.2026-02-03: 2 insider sales, $386K — STEELE SALLY A, STICKELS ERIC2025-12-29: 1 insider sale, $203K — Gillan-Myer Maureen A2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $88K — LEVY JEFFREY M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $88K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $203K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $663K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $945K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $50K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $25K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Singh Savneet — Purchase on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Vaccaro John A — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hall Brenda M — Purchase on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bolus Mark J. — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STICKELS ERIC — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Whipple John F. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STEELE SALLY A — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STICKELS ERIC — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gillan-Myer Maureen A — Sale on 2025-12-29, filed 65 days after the tradeofficer LEVY JEFFREY M — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Singh SavneetdirectorPurchase400 @ $62.47$25K+2222.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open418Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27Vaccaro John AdirectorPurchase317 @ $63.11$20K+181.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open492Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24Hall Brenda MdirectorPurchase476 @ $63.59$30K+1220.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open515Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-25Bolus Mark J.directorSale12,191 @ $67.00$817K−11.5% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open94,060Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-08STICKELS ERICdirectorSale2,000 @ $63.98$128K−6.0% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open31,592Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Whipple John F.directorSale4,246 @ $65.17$277K−33.3% of holding−7.7%−10.9%8,506Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03STEELE SALLY AdirectorSale4,000 @ $64.12$256K−9.1% of holding−5.7%−8.0%39,964Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03STICKELS ERICdirectorSale2,000 @ $64.75$129K−5.7% of holding−5.7%−8.0%33,342Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-29Gillan-Myer Maureen AofficerSale3,450 @ $58.85$203K−100.0% of holding+5.2%+9.1%0Form 4 · filed 65 days after the trade
2025-08-27LEVY JEFFREY MofficerSale1,440 @ $61.38$88K−17.8% of holding−4.1%−6.1%6,657Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24LEVY JEFFREY MofficerSale1,136 @ $65.98$75K−14.8% of holding−2.0%−21.5%6,539Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

172 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Sullivan MicheledirectorAward / grant4063,960Form 4
2026-06-18Vaccaro John AdirectorAward / grant320635Form 4
2026-06-10Durkee Deresa FischerofficerWithheld for tax1,3265,478Form 4
2026-06-10Durkee Deresa FischerofficerOption exercise1,1966,804Form 4
2026-06-10Durkee Deresa FischerofficerOption exercise4275,608Form 4
2026-06-10Durkee Deresa FischerofficerOption exercise1,1961,794Form 4
2026-06-10Durkee Deresa FischerofficerOption exercise4270Form 4
2026-05-04Wlos Marya BurgioofficerWithheld for tax2731,993Form 4
2026-04-29STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise91,231Form 4
2026-04-29Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise94,829Form 4
2026-04-29Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise91,220Form 4
2026-04-29Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise97,181Form 4
2026-04-29Parente JohndirectorOption exercise972,654Form 4
2026-04-29Parente JohndirectorOption exercise91,220Form 4
2026-04-29Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise911,448Form 4
2026-04-29Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise94,829Form 4
2026-04-29Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise91,220Form 4
2026-04-29Parente JohndirectorOption exercise972,654Form 4
2026-04-29Parente JohndirectorOption exercise91,220Form 4
2026-04-29Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise911,448Form 4
2026-04-29Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise97,181Form 4
2026-04-29STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise941,227Form 4
2026-04-29STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise91,231Form 4
2026-04-29STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise941,227Form 4
2026-03-19Sullivan MicheledirectorAward / grant4473,530Form 4
2026-03-19Vaccaro John AdirectorAward / grant315315Form 4
2026-03-19Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise1,2547,136Form 4
2026-03-19Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise1,2544,820Form 4
2026-03-19Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise1,2541,220Form 4
2026-03-19STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise1,25441,218Form 4
2026-03-19STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise1,2541,231Form 4
2026-03-19Parente JohndirectorOption exercise1,25472,645Form 4
2026-03-19Parente JohndirectorOption exercise1,2541,220Form 4
2026-03-19Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise1,2544,820Form 4
2026-03-19Knauss Jeffery JdirectorOption exercise1,2541,220Form 4
2026-03-19STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise1,25441,218Form 4
2026-03-19STEELE SALLY AdirectorOption exercise1,2541,231Form 4
2026-03-19Pecor Raymond C IIIdirectorOption exercise1,25411,439Form 4
2026-03-19Parente JohndirectorOption exercise1,25472,645Form 4
2026-03-19Parente JohndirectorOption exercise1,2541,220Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.