CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.28 · now $57.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBSH has typically landed between $51.53 and $62.92 — a range of −10.0% to +9.9% from the issuance price $57.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CBSH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$51.53worst · -10.0%$62.92best · +9.9%
  • now $57.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.24 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.03–$59.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $51.53–$62.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−32.9%−32.9%+0.0%
2020-02-11−28.6%−28.6%+0.0%
2020-02-24−25.9%−31.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+31.8%−2.4%+34.7%
2009-03-05+30.6%−5.4%+30.6%
2009-03-09+29.4%+0.0%+38.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Mar
65%
−0.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.1%
n=20
May
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.2%
n=20
Nov
85%
+5.2%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$60$472026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $39K — Neff Douglas D2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $39K — Orf David L2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $50K — Roller David L.2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $301K — Holmes Robert S2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $353K — Kemper John W2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $62K — Brooks Derrick2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — KIM CHARLES G2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $11K — FOWLER JUNE MCALLISTER2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $119K — DUNN TIMOTHY S2026-03-05: 2 insider sales, $93K — JAKOVICH KIM L, ROWE MARGARET M2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $411K — BARTH KEVIN G2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Kemper John W2026-02-04: 2 insider sales, $119K — Roller David L., Brooks Derrick2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $112K — Roller David L.2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $149K — KEMPER DAVID W2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $149K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $119K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $93K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $11K2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $127K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Neff Douglas D — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Orf David L — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Roller David L. — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Holmes Robert S — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kemper John W — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brooks Derrick — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KIM CHARLES G — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FOWLER JUNE MCALLISTER — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DUNN TIMOTHY S — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer JAKOVICH KIM L — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer ROWE MARGARET M — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer BARTH KEVIN G — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kemper John W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Roller David L. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brooks Derrick — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Roller David L. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KEMPER DAVID W — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerSale666 @ $58.15$39K−5.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,746Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerSale642 @ $60.35$39K−2.5% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open24,962Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-04Roller David L.officerSale830 @ $60.28$50K−2.6% of holding−2.5%not yet — horizon still open30,535Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-30Holmes Robert SofficerSale5,000 @ $60.20$301K−8.2% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open55,962Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorSale5,830 @ $60.58$353K−2.7% of holding−9.5%not yet — horizon still open206,528Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Brooks DerrickofficerSale1,041 @ $59.63$62K−7.4% of holding−5.9%not yet — horizon still open13,117Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27KIM CHARLES GofficerSale19,771 @ $59.18$1.2M−14.2% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open119,410Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-16FOWLER JUNE MCALLISTERdirectorSale200 @ $55.03$11K−3.1% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open6,233Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13DUNN TIMOTHY SdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $47.71$119K+86.1% of holding+1.2%+8.2%5,403Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05JAKOVICH KIM LofficerSale949 @ $51.45$49K−6.9% of holding+0.5%+0.4%12,741Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05ROWE MARGARET MofficerSale861 @ $51.69$45K−13.0% of holding+0.5%+0.4%5,742Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-11BARTH KEVIN GofficerSale7,457 @ $55.09$411K−14.3% of holding−8.2%−2.2%44,745Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05Kemper John WdirectorSale23,397 @ $53.99$1.3M−10.2% of holding−8.4%−4.9%206,528Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04Roller David L.officerSale1,134 @ $54.48$62K−3.6% of holding−4.8%−2.6%30,535Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Brooks DerrickofficerSale1,044 @ $54.40$57K−6.7% of holding−4.8%−2.6%14,585Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03Roller David L.officerSale2,092 @ $53.32$112K−6.7% of holding−2.7%+0.3%28,933Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-30KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale2,842 @ $52.59$149K−0.2% of holding−0.3%+4.5%1,264,786Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13Kellerhals Patricia RofficerSale1,000 @ $65.62$66K−5.4% of holding−7.7%−33.3%17,688Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01FOWLER JUNE MCALLISTERdirectorSale1,618 @ $60.72$98K−33.8% of holding−4.3%−36.3%3,175Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06ROWE MARGARET MofficerSale250 @ $61.92$15K−4.8% of holding+1.4%−14.6%4,971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07KIM CHARLES GofficerSale13,493 @ $67.76$914K−13.5% of holding−4.1%−16.6%86,246Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-05Roller David L.officerSale3,348 @ $67.81$227K−9.7% of holding−3.9%−16.9%31,055Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Orf David LofficerSale1,036 @ $68.24$71K−4.5% of holding−3.9%−16.9%22,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Kemper John WdirectorSale26,042 @ $67.28$1.8M−10.9% of holding−3.3%−15.6%211,929Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Handy John KofficerSale4,844 @ $67.25$326K−10.6% of holding−3.3%−15.6%40,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Kellerhals Patricia RofficerSale1,719 @ $67.30$116K−8.4% of holding−3.3%−15.6%18,688Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Brooks DerrickofficerSale175 @ $66.86$12K−1.3% of holding−3.3%−15.6%13,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale3,708 @ $66.16$245K−0.3% of holding−2.3%−12.6%1,208,311Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Brooks DerrickofficerSale28 @ $65.48$2K−0.2% of holding−2.3%−12.6%13,954Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-27Handy John KofficerSale2,722 @ $66.68$182K−6.4% of holding−3.2%−14.0%39,638Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27BARTH KEVIN GofficerSale1,222 @ $66.61$81K−2.7% of holding−3.2%−14.0%44,289Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24BARTH KEVIN GofficerSale24,870 @ $66.06$1.6M−35.3% of holding−0.4%−10.7%45,511Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-17BARTH KEVIN GofficerSale1,582 @ $67.54$107K−2.4% of holding−2.0%−7.5%65,409Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Kellerhals Patricia RofficerSale1,000 @ $67.69$68K−4.5% of holding−3.2%−8.5%21,265Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09Kellerhals Patricia RofficerSale500 @ $68.55$34K−2.2% of holding−6.4%−8.5%22,265Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale1,500 @ $69.25$104K−5.9% of holding−6.6%−6.6%23,725Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-05KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale1,500 @ $69.20$104K−3.5% of holding−6.6%−6.6%40,825Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-05KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale1,500 @ $69.20$104K−3.6% of holding−6.6%−6.6%40,464Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-03Brooks DerrickofficerSale38 @ $68.85$3K−0.4% of holding−7.9%−6.7%10,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerDisposition1481,735Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerOption exercise2202,070Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerDisposition1431,883Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerOption exercise2201,850Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerWithheld for tax232,047Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerWithheld for tax212,026Form 4
2026-09-04UPTON JENNIFER BofficerOption exercise2200Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerDisposition1,85012,412Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerOption exercise1,39614,535Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerOption exercise1,39313,139Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerWithheld for tax27314,262Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerOption exercise1,3960Form 4
2026-08-27Neff Douglas DofficerOption exercise1,3930Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerDisposition1,63025,604Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerOption exercise1,35327,509Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerOption exercise1,19426,156Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerWithheld for tax27527,234Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerOption exercise1,1940Form 4
2026-08-14Orf David LofficerOption exercise1,3530Form 4
2026-08-04Roller David L.officerDisposition2,32031,365Form 4
2026-08-04Roller David L.officerOption exercise3,50734,042Form 4
2026-08-04Roller David L.officerWithheld for tax35733,685Form 4
2026-08-04Roller David L.officerOption exercise3,5070Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorDisposition10,594212,358Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorOption exercise16,097232,914Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorDisposition6,179222,952Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorOption exercise10,289216,817Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorWithheld for tax2,165229,131Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorWithheld for tax1,618231,296Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorOption exercise10,2890Form 4
2026-07-29Kemper John WdirectorOption exercise16,0970Form 4
2026-07-27KIM CHARLES GofficerDisposition5,925139,181Form 4
2026-07-27KIM CHARLES GofficerOption exercise9,662146,752Form 4
2026-07-27KIM CHARLES GofficerWithheld for tax1,646145,106Form 4
2026-07-27Brooks DerrickofficerWithheld for tax42714,158Form 4
2026-07-27KIM CHARLES GofficerOption exercise9,6620Form 4
2026-07-01BARTH KEVIN GofficerAward / grant44,26289,007Form 4
2026-07-01KIM CHARLES GofficerAward / grant44,262137,090Form 4
2026-06-23KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant13126,437Form 4
2026-06-23BARTH KEVIN GofficerAward / grant12024,256Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.