CBRL · TickerCove

CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country StoreConsumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.22 · now $43.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBRL has typically landed between $34.96 and $52.11 — a range of −19.1% to +20.6% from the issuance price $43.22.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$43.22 · 54% of range

$24.52 low$59.04 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.0%

typical move · IQR 19.9%

−19.1%worst (p90)+20.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CBRL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $43.22 (+0.0%)
typical $42.8 (-1.0%)
middle 50% $38.5–$47.11
90% range $34.96–$52.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−65.2%	−65.2%	+3.5%
2020-02-20	−60.5%	−65.9%	+1.4%
2020-02-14	−57.9%	−57.9%	+2.4%
3 best
2008-11-19	+80.6%	−3.6%	+80.6%
2008-11-20	+72.5%	−1.1%	+85.2%
2026-05-19	+64.1%	+0.0%	+64.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.6%

n=20

Feb

60%

+3.8%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.7%

n=20

May

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Jun

50%

+1.2%

n=20

Jul

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Aug

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Sep

50%

−2.0%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

50%

+2.4%

n=20

Dec

65%

+0.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-01-05	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $27.10	$1.1M	−1.9% of holding	+26.3%	+76.8%	2,197,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-29	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $25.56	$1.1M	−1.9% of holding	+12.1%	+111.8%	2,240,200	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-23	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.03	$1.1M	−1.8% of holding	+12.6%	+101.8%	2,282,600	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-19	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.37	$1.1M	−1.8% of holding	+17.5%	+79.1%	2,325,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-17	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.85	$1.1M	−1.8% of holding	+22.2%	+63.4%	2,367,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.13	$1.1M	−1.7% of holding	+31.6%	+74.1%	2,409,800	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $28.79	$1.2M	−1.7% of holding	+12.6%	+46.3%	2,452,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.13	$1.1M	−1.7% of holding	+14.7%	+61.1%	2,494,600	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $27.61	$1.2M	−1.6% of holding	+9.2%	+62.5%	2,537,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $26.89	$1.1M	−1.6% of holding	+12.1%	+63.0%	2,579,400	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $27.73	$1.2M	−1.6% of holding	+0.9%	+24.3%	2,621,800	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-04	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $28.33	$1.2M	−1.6% of holding	−0.1%	+13.7%	2,664,200	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	42,400 @ $28.60	$1.2M	−1.5% of holding	−8.9%	+9.5%	2,706,600	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	84,700 @ $28.15	$2.4M	−3.0% of holding	−6.8%	+5.3%	2,749,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	53,000 @ $44.60	$2.4M	+1.9% of holding	+18.1%	−46.4%	2,833,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	35,607 @ $42.77	$1.5M	+1.3% of holding	+26.9%	−43.0%	2,780,700	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-30	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	70,293 @ $42.27	$3.0M	+2.6% of holding	+28.2%	−42.7%	2,745,093	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	53,000 @ $41.84	$2.2M	+2.0% of holding	+33.5%	−38.4%	2,674,800	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-25	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	53,000 @ $43.03	$2.3M	+2.1% of holding	+29.1%	−39.2%	2,621,800	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-22	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	26,500 @ $43.84	$1.2M	+1.0% of holding	+12.4%	−43.4%	2,568,800	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-16	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	26,500 @ $43.05	$1.1M	+1.1% of holding	+22.5%	−30.5%	2,542,300	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-10	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	31,800 @ $39.01	$1.2M	+1.3% of holding	+22.3%	−23.2%	2,515,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-09	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	31,800 @ $37.31	$1.2M	+1.3% of holding	+16.4%	−18.0%	2,484,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-04	GMT CAPITAL CORP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	105,900 @ $35.94	$3.8M	+4.5% of holding	+4.8%	−16.1%	2,452,200	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Deno David J.	director	Award / grant	7,434	7,434	Form 4
2026-08-10	Deno David J.	director	Award / grant	3,565	3,565	Form 4
2026-08-07	Masino Julie D.	director	Withheld for tax	688	81,971	Form 4
2026-07-30	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	17,519	21,960	Form 4
2026-05-04	Lankford Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	1,021	1,388	Form 4
2026-03-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	1,084	4,441	Form 4
2026-01-17	Spurgin Jim Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	318	6,139	Form 4
2025-11-20	BERQUIST CARL T	director	Award / grant	7,893	21,864	Form 4
2025-11-20	Goodwin Michael	director	Award / grant	5,390	8,328	Form 4
2025-11-20	Wade Darryl L	director	Award / grant	5,390	12,666	Form 4
2025-11-20	Garratt John W	director	Award / grant	5,390	9,933	Form 4
2025-11-20	HENRY CHERYL JANET	director	Award / grant	5,390	9,816	Form 4
2025-11-20	Ruiz Gisel	director	Award / grant	5,390	13,213	Form 4
2025-11-20	Bramlage Stephen P JR	director	Award / grant	5,390	6,678	Form 4
2025-11-20	BILNEY JODY L	director	Award / grant	5,390	11,591	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	1,232	3,357	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	1,232	3,357	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	2,909	2,909	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	2,000	2,125	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	2,000	2,125	Form 4
2025-10-09	Hisel Doug	officer	Award / grant	2,909	2,909	Form 4
2025-09-30	Masino Julie D.	director	Withheld for tax	6,566	82,659	Form 4
2025-09-30	Pommells Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	6,396	37,649	Form 4
2025-09-30	Daily Laura A	officer	Withheld for tax	4,168	24,539	Form 4
2025-09-30	Roberts Donna	officer	Withheld for tax	4,084	22,624	Form 4
2025-09-30	Schaefer Cammie	officer	Withheld for tax	3,156	16,961	Form 4
2025-09-30	Wolfson Richard M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,561	26,204	Form 4
2025-09-30	Hoffmeister Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	904	10,543	Form 4
2025-09-30	Edwards Christopher Bryant	officer	Withheld for tax	604	5,890	Form 4
2025-09-30	Spurgin Jim Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	571	6,457	Form 4
2025-09-30	Pommells Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	455	44,045	Form 4
2025-09-30	Wolfson Richard M	officer	Withheld for tax	407	27,765	Form 4
2025-09-30	Daily Laura A	officer	Withheld for tax	295	28,707	Form 4
2025-09-30	Moore Sarah O.	officer	Withheld for tax	277	3,235	Form 4
2025-09-30	Schaefer Cammie	officer	Withheld for tax	275	20,117	Form 4
2025-09-30	Roberts Donna	officer	Withheld for tax	268	26,708	Form 4
2025-09-30	Hoffmeister Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	224	11,447	Form 4
2025-09-30	Spurgin Jim Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	88	7,028	Form 4
2025-09-30	Pommells Craig	officer	Option exercise	1,073	44,500	Form 4
2025-09-30	Schaefer Cammie	officer	Option exercise	647	20,392	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i