CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchangesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $270.43 · now $270.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBOE has typically landed between $250.02 and $298.55 — a range of −7.5% to +10.4% from the issuance price $270.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,068 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-06-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($270.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CBOE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $270.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$250.02worst · -7.5%$298.55best · +10.4%
  • now $270.43 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $275.37 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $265.82–$284.93
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $250.02–$298.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,068 windows spanning 2010-06-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−38.4%−38.4%+0.2%
2020-02-21−37.4%−37.9%+1.0%
2020-02-24−35.7%−37.6%+1.5%
3 best
2020-03-18+34.5%+0.0%+34.5%
2026-06-29+33.0%+0.0%+33.0%
2020-03-23+30.9%+0.0%+34.5%

4,068 overlapping windows · 2010-06-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.8B
market cap
$11.71
EPS (TTM)
24.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$4.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.33
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $270.43$180.38$346.45
  • DCF (intrinsic)$261.53
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$191.83
  • Analyst target · range $258.00–$335.00$310.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$270.43

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
69%
+2.1%
n=16
Feb
63%
+2.8%
n=16
Mar
50%
−0.4%
n=16
Apr
44%
−0.0%
n=16
May
56%
+1.8%
n=16
Jun
56%
−0.0%
n=16
Jul
65%
+2.4%
n=17
Aug
71%
+2.1%
n=17
Sep
35%
−0.7%
n=17
Oct
81%
+4.9%
n=16
Nov
81%
+4.5%
n=16
Dec
50%
−1.4%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$366$2302026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $261K — Froetscher Janet P2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $438K — Froetscher Janet P2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $73K — Wilkinson Allen2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Fitzpatrick Edward J., Matturri Alexander JR2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Isaacson Christopher A2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $438K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $261K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Froetscher Janet P — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Froetscher Janet P — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wilkinson Allen — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fitzpatrick Edward J. — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Matturri Alexander JR — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Isaacson Christopher A — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Froetscher Janet PdirectorSale937 @ $278.95$261K−6.8% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open12,870Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Froetscher Janet PdirectorSale1,223 @ $358.09$438K−8.1% of holding−30.6%not yet — horizon still open13,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Wilkinson AllenofficerSale248 @ $292.79$73K−37.7% of holding+1.8%−5.8%410Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Fitzpatrick Edward J.directorSale3,947 @ $285.87$1.1M−23.4% of holding+3.8%−13.8%12,921Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Matturri Alexander JRdirectorSale1,500 @ $285.36$428K−24.0% of holding+3.8%−13.8%4,761Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Isaacson Christopher AofficerSale5,000 @ $236.66$1.2M−11.7% of holding−0.5%+22.7%37,580Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Isaacson Christopher AofficerSale5,000 @ $221.37$1.1M−10.5% of holding+2.1%+1.4%42,580Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Clay Catherine RdirectorSale3,598 @ $226.58$815K−62.2% of holding−5.4%−4.7%2,183Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-13Goodman Jill RdirectorSale1,384 @ $211.33$292K−11.0% of holding+2.9%−10.4%11,189Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Goodman Jill RdirectorSale1,300 @ $206.24$268K−9.4% of holding+6.6%−4.3%12,573Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Wilkinson AllenofficerSale228 @ $211.12$48K−47.9% of holding+5.3%+10.6%248Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20Howson DaveofficerSale3,600 @ $208.45$750K−27.0% of holding+10.4%+15.3%9,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Howson DaveofficerSale1,684 @ $209.43$353K−17.3% of holding+10.4%+15.3%8,025Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Howson DaveofficerSale375 @ $207.05$78K−2.7% of holding+10.4%+15.3%13,309Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Inzirillo AdamofficerSale200 @ $209.67$42K−9.1% of holding+10.4%+15.3%1,993Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Howson DaveofficerSale11,036 @ $206.01$2.3M−57.9% of holding+7.9%+8.1%8,025Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10Clay Catherine RdirectorSale3,000 @ $211.85$636K−69.3% of holding+7.3%+12.3%1,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Fischer HeidiofficerAward / grant1,7811,781Form 4
2026-08-19Fischer HeidiofficerAward / grant1,1191,119Form 4
2026-08-19Duinstra BoudewijnofficerAward / grant1,3351,335Form 4
2026-08-19Duinstra BoudewijnofficerAward / grant1,0691,069Form 4
2026-07-01Tomczyk Fredric JdirectorWithheld for tax33735,631Form 4
2026-05-19Wilkinson AllenofficerAward / grant166166Form 4
2026-05-14McPeek Jennifer JdirectorAward / grant5306,368Form 4
2026-05-14Goodman Jill RdirectorAward / grant53012,448Form 4
2026-05-14Mansfield ErindirectorAward / grant5302,441Form 4
2026-05-14Mao CeciliadirectorAward / grant5302,441Form 4
2026-05-14Tomczyk Fredric JdirectorAward / grant53035,968Form 4
2026-05-14Farrow William M IIIdirectorAward / grant53012,735Form 4
2026-05-14Fitzpatrick Edward J.directorAward / grant53013,451Form 4
2026-05-14Fong Ivan KdirectorAward / grant5307,441Form 4
2026-05-14Froetscher Janet PdirectorAward / grant53015,030Form 4
2026-05-14PALMORE RODERICK AdirectorAward / grant53027,730Form 4
2026-05-14Parisi James E.directorAward / grant5309,969Form 4
2026-02-19Tomczyk Fredric JdirectorOption exercise10,96541,865Form 4
2026-02-19Tomczyk Fredric JdirectorWithheld for tax6,42735,438Form 4
2026-02-19DONOHUE CRAIG SdirectorOption exercise4,6834,683Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerOption exercise2,48849,232Form 4
2026-02-19DONOHUE CRAIG SdirectorWithheld for tax2,0792,604Form 4
2026-02-19Griebenow JillofficerOption exercise1,86317,907Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerOption exercise1,67449,802Form 4
2026-02-19Griebenow JillofficerOption exercise1,65216,776Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerOption exercise1,48650,545Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax1,10448,128Form 4
2026-02-19Sexton John PofficerOption exercise97629,016Form 4
2026-02-19Sexton John PofficerOption exercise90229,485Form 4
2026-02-19Sexton John PofficerOption exercise88029,965Form 4
2026-02-19Griebenow JillofficerWithheld for tax82617,081Form 4
2026-02-19Lipscomb TimothyofficerOption exercise7962,689Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax74349,059Form 4
2026-02-19Griebenow JillofficerWithheld for tax73216,044Form 4
2026-02-19Isaacson Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax66049,885Form 4
2026-02-19Griebenow JillofficerOption exercise65315,414Form 4
2026-02-19Foley StephanieofficerOption exercise6114,070Form 4
2026-02-19Foley StephanieofficerOption exercise5943,681Form 4
2026-02-19Lipscomb TimothyofficerOption exercise5452,880Form 4
2026-02-19Foley StephanieofficerOption exercise4473,264Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-05$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-10-282022-09-27$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-10-282022-09-27$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-10-282022-09-27$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-10-282022-09-27$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2022-08-312022-07-22$1–15K
Raúl M. GrijalvaHousesale2021-12-202021-12-17$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.