Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.03 · now $46.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBNA has typically landed between $41.33 and $54.11 — a range of −10.2% to +17.5% from the issuance price $46.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
467 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CBNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.4 (+3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.82–$49.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $41.33–$54.11
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-12-16 | −14.3% | −15.6% | +0.6% |
| 2025-12-17 | −14.3% | −15.1% | +1.1% |
| 2025-12-15 | −13.6% | −14.0% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-19 | +26.9% | +0.0% | +26.9% |
| 2025-04-10 | +25.7% | +0.0% | +25.7% |
| 2025-11-14 | +25.2% | −0.7% | +25.2% |
467 overlapping windows · 2024-10-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | MARTINELLI MARK | director | Purchase | 400 @ $44.00 | $18K | +15.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Basha Leigh-Alexandra | director | Purchase | 400 @ $35.04 | $14K | +50.0% of holding | +3.9% | +21.6% | 1,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Pollock James R. | officer | Purchase | 714 @ $35.25 | $25K | +22.8% of holding | +2.5% | +18.8% | 3,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Thompson-Byas Benita | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $35.44 | $71K | −11.0% of holding | +1.5% | +14.6% | 16,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Basha Leigh-Alexandra | director | Purchase | 400 @ $30.48 | $12K | +50.0% of holding | +21.9% | +7.9% | 1,200 | Form 4 · filed 108 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Basha Leigh-Alexandra | director | Purchase | 400 @ $29.81 | $12K | +235.3% of holding | +4.7% | +11.6% | 570 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-29 | Basha Leigh-Alexandra | director | Purchase | 400 @ $29.97 | $12K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.4% | +24.5% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 250 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32,158 @ $27.01 | $868K | −9.5% of holding | −8.6% | +0.7% | 306,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,514 @ $24.13 | $205K | +2.6% of holding | −0.4% | +8.6% | 338,236 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,194 @ $24.46 | $396K | +5.2% of holding | −1.6% | +7.5% | 328,722 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,088 @ $24.49 | $27K | +0.3% of holding | −0.8% | +7.6% | 312,528 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Conover Michael J. | director | Purchase | 300 @ $24.61 | $7K | +10.2% of holding | +0.2% | +4.0% | 3,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Conover Michael J. | director | Purchase | 700 @ $24.75 | $17K | +31.1% of holding | −3.4% | +3.0% | 2,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Evinger David M. | director | Gift | 340 | 340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Evinger David M. | director | Gift | 340 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Thompson-Byas Benita | director | Conversion | 18,020 | 18,020 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Fitzgerald Joseph MICHAEL | director | Conversion | 27,880 | 27,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | MARTINELLI MARK | director | Award / grant | 430 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | MARTINELLI MARK | director | Conversion | 170 | 2,170 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Evinger David M. | director | Other acquisition | 125 | 125 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.