Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.50 · now $24.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBLL has typically landed between $18.31 and $30.36 — a range of −25.3% to +23.9% from the issuance price $24.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
462 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CBLL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.5 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.01–$27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.31–$30.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 462 windows spanning 2024-10-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-12-11 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-12-12 | −31.4% | −34.6% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-07 | +77.1% | −1.7% | +77.1% |
| 2025-11-04 | +75.4% | +0.0% | +75.4% |
| 2025-11-13 | +75.3% | +0.0% | +75.3% |
462 overlapping windows · 2024-10-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−8.6%
n=2
Feb
50%
−4.2%
n=2
Mar
0%
−9.6%
n=2
Apr
50%
−3.1%
n=2
May
50%
−2.0%
n=2
Jun
100%
+8.4%
n=2
Jul
0%
−16.1%
n=2
Aug
50%
+8.9%
n=2
Sep
50%
−0.4%
n=2
Oct
0%
−0.8%
n=1
Nov
100%
+29.2%
n=2
Dec
50%
+9.6%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $24.25 | $182K | −18.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 4,887 @ $24.33 | $119K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 203,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 1,755 @ $24.26 | $43K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 39,540 @ $24.61 | $973K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 652 @ $25.00 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 859 @ $23.95 | $21K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 6,068 @ $24.02 | $146K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 781,731 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 1,979 @ $24.02 | $48K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 194,729 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 1,521 @ $24.02 | $37K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Manni Joseph S. | officer | Sale | 1,361 @ $24.02 | $33K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,956 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 993 @ $24.02 | $24K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,758 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 33,512 @ $25.03 | $839K | −18.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 148,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 31,415 @ $25.03 | $786K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 787,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 2,199 @ $25.00 | $55K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 819,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 990 @ $25.00 | $25K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 148,121 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Taylor Joseph Michael | director | Sale | 13,095 @ $23.40 | $306K | −21.3% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 39,000 @ $18.32 | $714K | −4.7% of holding | +33.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 788,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 23,554 @ $19.90 | $469K | −2.9% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 802,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $19.90 | $279K | −1.7% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 802,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $19.90 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 802,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | BURKE WILLIAM W | director | Sale | 2,207 @ $19.84 | $44K | −8.7% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 202,368 @ $20.12 | $4.1M | −5.1% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,765,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Taylor Joseph Michael | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $18.41 | $101K | −8.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 23,554 @ $18.33 | $432K | −2.8% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 816,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $18.33 | $257K | −1.7% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 816,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $18.33 | $27K | −0.2% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 816,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 862 @ $18.80 | $16K | −2.2% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 6,030 @ $18.00 | $109K | −0.7% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 830,317 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 1,966 @ $18.00 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,682 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 1,387 @ $18.00 | $25K | −0.9% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,683 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Manni Joseph S. | officer | Sale | 1,378 @ $18.00 | $25K | −2.4% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,291 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 987 @ $18.00 | $18K | −2.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,613 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 23,554 @ $20.09 | $473K | −2.7% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 836,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $20.12 | $282K | −1.6% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 836,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $20.12 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 836,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 6,611 @ $20.45 | $135K | −3.2% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 3,024 @ $20.43 | $62K | −1.5% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 1,469 @ $20.39 | $30K | −0.7% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 23,554 @ $18.40 | $433K | −2.7% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 850,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $18.40 | $258K | −1.6% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 850,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $18.40 | $27K | −0.2% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 850,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 6,615 @ $18.57 | $123K | −3.8% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 3,025 @ $18.53 | $56K | −1.8% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 1,472 @ $18.58 | $27K | −0.9% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 23,554 @ $17.45 | $411K | −3.2% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 711,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $17.45 | $244K | −1.9% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 711,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 3,403 @ $17.80 | $61K | −16.2% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 17,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $17.46 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 711,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $17.80 | $21K | −6.2% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 17,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | ROBERTSON REBECCA B | director | Sale | 827 @ $17.80 | $15K | −4.2% of holding | +8.9% | +27.6% | 18,749 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 6,615 @ $18.25 | $121K | −3.8% of holding | +5.9% | +19.7% | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 3,025 @ $18.26 | $55K | +1.8% of holding | +5.9% | +19.7% | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 1,472 @ $18.26 | $27K | −0.9% of holding | +5.9% | +19.7% | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 781 @ $19.98 | $16K | −4.3% of holding | −1.5% | +8.3% | 17,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Sale | 2,084 @ $19.79 | $41K | −0.3% of holding | −1.3% | +7.3% | 725,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Sale | 808 @ $19.79 | $16K | −0.7% of holding | −1.3% | +7.3% | 118,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Manni Joseph S. | officer | Sale | 768 @ $19.79 | $15K | −2.8% of holding | −1.3% | +7.3% | 26,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Woo Raymond | officer | Sale | 705 @ $19.79 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | −1.3% | +7.3% | 166,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Foehr David | officer | Sale | 569 @ $19.79 | $11K | −3.0% of holding | −1.3% | +7.3% | 18,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Parvizi Josef | director | Sale | 16,714 @ $20.27 | $339K | −2.3% of holding | −3.9% | +7.7% | 722,652 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
194 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Foehr David | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 41,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 8,389 | 203,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 4,864 | 207,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 23 | 208,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 4,864 | 53,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 23 | 19,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woo Raymond | officer | Option exercise | 8,389 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Foehr David | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 45,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 806,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 783,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 652 | 147,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 285,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 652 | 52,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 30,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 27,333 | 181,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 6,179 | 154,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 6,179 | 37,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 27,333 | 53,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 690 | 148,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 149,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 80,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Blumberg Scott | officer | Option exercise | 690 | 43,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 821,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 8,096 | 796,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 8,096 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 188,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 827,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 803,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 287,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 54,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | O'KEEFE SHARON | director | Award / grant | 16,011 | 16,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | West Thomas A. | director | Award / grant | 16,011 | 16,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 825,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 803,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 288,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 77,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 839,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 817,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 1,446 | 290,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chao Xingjuan | director | Option exercise | 23,554 | 101,477 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.