Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.18 · now $17.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CBIO has typically landed between $11.28 and $24.54 — a range of −34.4% to +42.8% from the issuance price $17.18.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,163 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-01-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CBIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.18 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.47 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.15–$18.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.28–$24.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-04-11 | −89.5% | −89.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-04-10 | −89.1% | −89.1% | +2.4% |
| 2024-04-05 | −88.9% | −88.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-20 | +287.9% | +0.0% | +287.9% |
| 2022-11-07 | +257.4% | +0.0% | +257.4% |
| 2022-10-19 | +241.0% | −4.9% | +241.0% |
3,163 overlapping windows · 2014-01-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: CR-001 in Adult Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Purchase | 853,450 @ $14.50 | $12.4M | +31.1% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,316 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Purchase | 525,897 @ $14.50 | $7.6M | +29.7% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,294,037 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Brumm Joshua T | director | Sale | 42,305 @ $17.99 | $761K | −13.1% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,549 @ $17.99 | $370K | −12.9% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Sale | 1,288 @ $17.99 | $23K | −5.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Sale | 1,219 @ $17.99 | $22K | −5.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Sale | 1,218 @ $17.99 | $22K | −5.9% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,330 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Scalzo Richard William | officer | Sale | 1,112 @ $17.99 | $20K | −5.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Lynch Ryan | officer | Sale | 465 @ $17.99 | $8K | −3.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Purchase | 1,360,000 @ $13.41 | $18.2M | +98.0% of holding | −16.2% | +24.4% | 2,747,866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Purchase | 131,434 @ $13.41 | $1.8M | +8.0% of holding | −16.2% | +24.4% | 1,768,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Balcom Alexandra | director | Award / grant | 11,050 | 11,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Moran Susan | director | Award / grant | 11,050 | 11,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Violin Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 11,050 | 11,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Award / grant | 11,050 | 11,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Lubner David Charles | director | Award / grant | 11,050 | 11,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Award / grant | 65,190 | 65,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 78,029 | 78,029 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Scalzo Richard William | officer | Award / grant | 57,688 | 57,688 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Award / grant | 70,025 | 70,025 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Doughty Christopher Grant | officer | Award / grant | 58,855 | 58,855 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lynch Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 33,512 | 33,512 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Award / grant | 72,185 | 72,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Brumm Joshua T | director | Award / grant | 180,467 | 180,467 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Doughty Christopher Grant | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 62,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Award / grant | 16,298 | 16,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 21,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Award / grant | 12,422 | 12,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Award / grant | 17,507 | 17,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 22,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 19,507 | 153,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 6,000 | 159,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Award / grant | 12,422 | 12,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Award / grant | 6,000 | 18,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lynch Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 12,378 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lynch Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 8,378 | 8,378 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Award / grant | 16,298 | 16,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Im Ellie Eunkyung | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 21,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Scalzo Richard William | officer | Award / grant | 14,422 | 14,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Brumm Joshua T | director | Award / grant | 45,117 | 313,517 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Brumm Joshua T | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 323,517 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Doughty Christopher Grant | officer | Award / grant | 14,714 | 54,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 19,507 | 153,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | McNeill Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 6,000 | 159,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Scalzo Richard William | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 19,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Doughty Christopher Grant | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 62,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Award / grant | 17,507 | 17,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Pinkas Jan | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 22,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Doughty Christopher Grant | officer | Award / grant | 14,714 | 54,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bispham Barbara Harlin | officer | Award / grant | 6,000 | 18,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Brumm Joshua T | director | Award / grant | 45,117 | 313,517 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.