Issued 2026-09-16 at $341.53 · now $341.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CB has typically landed between $318.12 and $373.73 — a range of −6.9% to +9.4% from the issuance price $341.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($341.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $341.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $341.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $345.99 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $334.07–$357.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $318.12–$373.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −39.5% | −39.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +47.7% | +0.0% | +47.7% |
| 2020-05-07 | +42.1% | −0.5% | +42.1% |
| 2008-10-09 | +39.6% | +0.0% | +49.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$139.5B
market cap
$28.40
EPS (TTM)
12.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$59.8B
'20'25
Net income$10.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$14.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.24
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$717.44
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$465.25
- Analyst target · range $301.00–$387.00$360.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$341.53
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−1.0%
n=18
Feb
74%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.7%
n=19
May
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
72%
+4.5%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
78%
+1.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CONNORS MICHAEL P | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $345.00 | $1.9M | −30.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,803 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 8,502 @ $364.54 | $3.1M | −20.1% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Sale | 3,886 @ $322.08 | $1.3M | −11.9% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 20,176 @ $321.45 | $6.5M | −8.9% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 2,824 @ $321.95 | $909K | −1.4% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | ATIEH MICHAEL G | director | Sale | 578 @ $329.53 | $190K | −1.4% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Steimer Olivier | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $329.30 | $659K | −7.3% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Ohsiek George F. | officer | Sale | 770 @ $325.20 | $250K | −4.3% of holding | +1.8% | −10.4% | 17,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Johns Bryce L. | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $336.62 | $505K | −5.7% of holding | +2.6% | −10.1% | 24,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 7,645 @ $336.44 | $2.6M | −12.0% of holding | +0.4% | −11.8% | 56,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Ohsiek George F. | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $324.30 | $1.3M | −18.6% of holding | +3.7% | −8.4% | 17,016 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Sale | 14,925 @ $335.09 | $5.0M | −2.9% of holding | +1.4% | −10.6% | 496,651 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Ohsiek George F. | officer | Sale | 1,240 @ $328.97 | $408K | −5.6% of holding | +1.4% | −10.6% | 20,916 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 14,636 @ $331.98 | $4.9M | −55.3% of holding | +0.2% | −6.6% | 11,810 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 13,181 @ $331.98 | $4.4M | −52.7% of holding | +0.2% | −6.6% | 11,810 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Sale | 15,060 @ $331.47 | $5.0M | −2.9% of holding | −2.2% | −8.3% | 511,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Sale | 4,357 @ $295.04 | $1.3M | −10.8% of holding | +5.1% | −4.3% | 36,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 10,580 @ $296.17 | $3.1M | −45.5% of holding | +2.7% | −5.9% | 12,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 850 @ $295.19 | $251K | −34.9% of holding | +2.7% | −5.9% | 1,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Lupica John J | officer | Sale | 16,375 @ $296.45 | $4.9M | −18.1% of holding | +4.6% | +2.6% | 74,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 5,830 @ $297.08 | $1.7M | −8.8% of holding | +4.6% | +1.7% | 60,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Lupica John J | officer | Sale | 23,698 @ $281.00 | $6.7M | −20.7% of holding | +7.2% | +11.9% | 90,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | CORBAT MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 425 @ $269.80 | $115K | +21.0% of holding | +1.1% | +4.2% | 2,450 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Lupica John J | officer | Sale | 2,907 @ $290.07 | $843K | −3.0% of holding | −10.5% | −2.7% | 93,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Lupica John J | officer | Sale | 2,606 @ $290.04 | $756K | −2.8% of holding | −10.5% | −2.7% | 91,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | ATIEH MICHAEL G | director | Sale | 538 @ $287.56 | $155K | −1.3% of holding | −8.3% | −3.7% | 39,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Keogh John W | officer | Purchase | 9,810 @ $292.99 | $2.9M | +4.1% of holding | −8.8% | −14.0% | 247,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 9,794 @ $292.99 | $2.9M | −100.0% of holding | −8.8% | −14.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 5,261 @ $293.16 | $1.5M | −7.3% of holding | −8.2% | −13.6% | 66,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 33,784 @ $290.23 | $9.8M | −11.6% of holding | −3.7% | −12.4% | 258,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 30,576 @ $290.24 | $8.9M | −10.6% of holding | −3.7% | −12.4% | 258,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Keogh John W | officer | Sale | 20,723 @ $290.24 | $6.0M | −8.0% of holding | −3.7% | −12.4% | 237,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Sale | 6,504 @ $292.13 | $1.9M | −13.9% of holding | −3.0% | −9.7% | 40,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 12,231 @ $294.82 | $3.6M | −13.5% of holding | +4.0% | −24.6% | 78,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 6,364 @ $295.36 | $1.9M | −14.5% of holding | +2.4% | −25.5% | 37,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 5,957 @ $296.52 | $1.8M | −15.9% of holding | +2.4% | −25.5% | 31,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Sale | 2,427 @ $297.16 | $721K | −7.7% of holding | +2.4% | −25.5% | 29,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Ohsiek George F. | officer | Sale | 763 @ $290.41 | $222K | −3.7% of holding | +2.0% | −24.2% | 20,044 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Sale | 20,868 @ $291.26 | $6.1M | −3.4% of holding | −0.8% | −22.0% | 589,255 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Sale | 4,860 @ $292.26 | $1.4M | −0.8% of holding | −0.8% | −22.0% | 584,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $286.96 | $2.9M | −11.4% of holding | +8.3% | −13.7% | 77,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
259 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Withheld for tax | 144 | 33,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Option exercise | 3,886 | 32,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Option exercise | 3,886 | 60,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Keogh John W | officer | Gift | 1,352 | 140,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Keogh John W | officer | Gift | 61,000 | 142,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Keogh John W | officer | Gift | 61,000 | 61,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Withheld for tax | 73,555 | 461,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Keogh John W | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,556 | 226,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,164 | 42,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Enns Peter C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,730 | 29,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,820 | 28,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,751 | 5,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | McNamee Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,352 | 18,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | O'Brien Frances D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,106 | 40,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | SCULLY ROBERT W | director | Withheld for tax | 356 | 20,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Buese Nancy | director | Withheld for tax | 321 | 3,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | CORBAT MICHAEL | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shasta Theodore | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 16,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | TOWNSEND FRANCES F | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 5,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | SIDWELL DAVID H | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 15,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | ATIEH MICHAEL G | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 40,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hu Fred | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 1,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BURKE SHEILA P | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 8,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | CONNORS MICHAEL P | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 18,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chai Nelson | director | Withheld for tax | 193 | 1,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Steimer Olivier | director | Withheld for tax | 41 | 26,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Keogh John W | officer | Disposition | 5,033 | 255,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BOROUGHS TIMOTHY ALAN | officer | Disposition | 930 | 10,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wayland Joseph F | officer | Disposition | 1,797 | 54,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Johns Bryce L. | officer | Disposition | 243 | 24,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ortega Juan Luis | officer | Disposition | 924 | 34,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Enns Peter C. | officer | Disposition | 1,869 | 41,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | GREENBERG EVAN G | director | Disposition | 11,253 | 535,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | O'Brien Frances D. | officer | Disposition | 216 | 41,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | McNamee Paul | officer | Disposition | 282 | 20,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | TOWNSEND FRANCES F | director | Award / grant | 681 | 5,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | ATIEH MICHAEL G | director | Award / grant | 681 | 40,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Buese Nancy | director | Award / grant | 1,135 | 4,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | CONNORS MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 681 | 18,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | CORBAT MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 681 | 3,131 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-04-13 | 2026-03-26 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-08-04 | 2025-07-17 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-07-16 | 2025-06-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.