CAVACAVA Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.76 · now $49.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAVA has typically landed between $37.56 and $64.00 — a range of −24.5% to +28.6% from the issuance price $49.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

795 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-06-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CAVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.56worst · -24.5%$64best · +28.6%
  • now $49.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $51.61 (+3.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.87–$58.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.56–$64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 795 windows spanning 2023-06-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-11−43.4%−43.4%+1.9%
2025-02-06−43.3%−43.3%+0.0%
2025-02-07−42.2%−42.2%+1.6%
3 best
2024-07-26+57.6%+0.0%+57.6%
2024-07-25+56.0%+0.0%+56.0%
2023-07-05+46.4%+0.0%+50.1%

795 overlapping windows · 2023-06-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+10.6%
n=3
Feb
67%
+10.4%
n=3
Mar
33%
+3.0%
n=3
Apr
100%
+8.4%
n=3
May
33%
−0.1%
n=3
Jun
100%
+1.6%
n=3
Jul
50%
+4.5%
n=4
Aug
50%
−2.3%
n=4
Sep
25%
−14.3%
n=4
Oct
67%
−0.0%
n=3
Nov
67%
+1.4%
n=3
Dec
67%
+8.8%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$97$442026-09-15: 1 insider purchase, $50K — KADOW JOSEPH JOHN2026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $432K — Thompson Douglas W.2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $900K — KOCHEVAR KAREN2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Costanza Kelly2026-06-15: 6 insider sales, $274.9M — Artal Participations S.a r.l., Schulman Brett, Tolivar Tricia K., Xenohristos Theodoros …2026-06-12: 2 insider sales, $423K — Phillips Adam David …2026-06-03: 1 insider purchase, $70K — KADOW JOSEPH JOHN2026-05-29: 2 insider purchases, $274K — Thompson Douglas W., KADOW JOSEPH JOHN2026-05-26: 1 insider purchase, $318K — Thompson Douglas W.2026-05-21: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — Costanza Kelly, Phillips Adam David2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $721K — Xenohristos Theodoros2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Bertram Kenneth Robert2026-02-26: 2 insider sales, $2.9M — Costanza Kelly, Phillips Adam David2026-01-27: 12 insider sales, $712K — Schulman Brett, Tolivar Tricia K., Costanza Kelly, Xenohristos Theodoros …2026-01-21: 5 insider sales, $1.9M — Schulman Brett, Tolivar Tricia K., Costanza Kelly, Bertram Kenneth Robert …2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $192K — Bertram Kenneth Robert2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Schulman Brett2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $222K — Bertram Kenneth Robert2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $222K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $7K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $192K2026-01: 17 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $592K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $70K2026-06: 10 open-market sales, $277.4M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $432K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector KADOW JOSEPH JOHN — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Thompson Douglas W. — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KOCHEVAR KAREN — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed same daydirector Artal Participations S.a r.l. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schulman Brett — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tolivar Tricia K. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Xenohristos Theodoros — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector KADOW JOSEPH JOHN — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Thompson Douglas W. — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KADOW JOSEPH JOHN — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Thompson Douglas W. — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Xenohristos Theodoros — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Schulman Brett — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tolivar Tricia K. — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schulman Brett — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tolivar Tricia K. — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Xenohristos Theodoros — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Xenohristos Theodoros — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Adam David — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schulman Brett — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tolivar Tricia K. — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costanza Kelly — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Xenohristos Theodoros — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schulman Brett — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed same dayofficer Bertram Kenneth Robert — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15KADOW JOSEPH JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $49.96$50Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Thompson Douglas W.officerPurchase6,500 @ $66.52$432K+50.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,371Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorSale10,000 @ $90.00$900K−76.5% of holding−28.8%not yet — horizon still open3,074Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-17Costanza KellyofficerSale12,490 @ $90.00$1.1M−11.3% of holding−28.3%not yet — horizon still open98,490Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15Artal Participations S.a r.l.directorSale3,000,000 @ $90.30$270.9M−31.6% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open6,507,990Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Schulman BrettdirectorSale33,174 @ $89.43$3.0M−4.0% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open798,669Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale4,969 @ $89.43$444K−2.1% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open234,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale3,252 @ $89.43$291K−1.0% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open324,630Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Costanza KellyofficerSale2,870 @ $89.43$257K−2.5% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open110,980Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale757 @ $89.43$68K−10.0% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open6,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale2,764 @ $90.71$251K−22.5% of holding−25.5%not yet — horizon still open9,505Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale1,900 @ $90.71$172K−20.0% of holding−25.5%not yet — horizon still open7,605Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-03KADOW JOSEPH JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $70.00$70K+16.7% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open6,974Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-29Thompson Douglas W.officerPurchase2,500 @ $77.90$195K+24.1% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open12,871Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-29KADOW JOSEPH JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $79.00$79K+20.1% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open5,974Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-26Thompson Douglas W.officerPurchase4,000 @ $79.45$318K+62.8% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open10,371Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-21Costanza KellyofficerSale10,010 @ $79.87$799K−8.1% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open113,850Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale5,181 @ $77.14$400K−35.3% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open9,505Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale9,044 @ $79.75$721K−2.7% of holding+3.8%not yet — horizon still open327,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale15,000 @ $80.33$1.2M−28.3% of holding+6.5%−36.4%37,958Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Costanza KellyofficerSale31,803 @ $84.45$2.7M−20.4% of holding−3.2%−33.5%123,860Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale2,000 @ $85.54$171K−17.4% of holding−3.2%−33.5%9,505Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-27Schulman BrettdirectorSale3,006 @ $61.96$186K−0.4% of holding+36.8%−0.6%804,319Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale1,591 @ $61.96$99K−0.7% of holding+36.8%−0.6%232,747Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Schulman BrettdirectorSale1,536 @ $62.50$96K−0.2% of holding+36.8%−0.6%802,783Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Costanza KellyofficerSale1,130 @ $61.96$70K−0.9% of holding+36.8%−0.6%119,716Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale813 @ $62.50$51K−0.3% of holding+36.8%−0.6%231,934Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale688 @ $61.96$43K−0.2% of holding+36.8%−0.6%332,556Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale658 @ $61.96$41K−1.3% of holding+36.8%−0.6%49,458Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Costanza KellyofficerSale577 @ $62.50$36K−0.5% of holding+36.8%−0.6%119,139Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale512 @ $61.96$32K−4.6% of holding+36.8%−0.6%10,697Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale351 @ $62.50$22K−0.1% of holding+36.8%−0.6%332,205Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale336 @ $62.50$21K−0.7% of holding+36.8%−0.6%49,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale262 @ $62.50$16K−2.4% of holding+36.8%−0.6%10,435Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Schulman BrettdirectorSale21,650 @ $67.41$1.5M−2.6% of holding+4.2%−13.8%807,325Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale2,204 @ $67.41$149K−0.9% of holding+4.2%−13.8%234,338Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Costanza KellyofficerSale1,702 @ $67.41$115K−1.4% of holding+4.2%−13.8%120,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale1,074 @ $67.41$72K−2.1% of holding+4.2%−13.8%50,116Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale965 @ $67.41$65K−0.3% of holding+4.2%−13.8%333,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale3,788 @ $50.70$192K−6.9% of holding+19.3%+38.2%51,143Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12Schulman BrettdirectorPurchase150 @ $48.98$7Kownership Δ n/a+9.3%+48.9%150Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-29Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale3,771 @ $58.86$222K−6.4% of holding+2.2%+39.1%54,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Schulman BrettdirectorSale26,440 @ $74.96$2.0M−3.2% of holding+12.0%−43.9%797,734Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Schulman BrettdirectorSale5,416 @ $76.11$412K−0.7% of holding+12.0%−43.9%792,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale4,021 @ $74.96$301K−1.7% of holding+12.0%−43.9%237,169Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale2,541 @ $74.96$190K−0.7% of holding+12.0%−43.9%350,730Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Somers JenniferofficerSale2,375 @ $74.96$178K−1.7% of holding+12.0%−43.9%137,534Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Costanza KellyofficerSale2,323 @ $74.96$174K−1.9% of holding+12.0%−43.9%123,024Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale1,824 @ $74.96$137K−3.0% of holding+12.0%−43.9%58,907Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Tolivar Tricia K.officerSale824 @ $76.11$63K−0.3% of holding+12.0%−43.9%236,345Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale613 @ $74.96$46K−5.2% of holding+12.0%−43.9%11,189Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale521 @ $76.11$40K−0.1% of holding+12.0%−43.9%350,209Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Somers JenniferofficerSale486 @ $76.11$37K−0.4% of holding+12.0%−43.9%137,048Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Costanza KellyofficerSale476 @ $76.11$36K−0.4% of holding+12.0%−43.9%122,548Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerSale374 @ $76.11$28K−0.6% of holding+12.0%−43.9%58,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Phillips Adam DavidofficerSale126 @ $76.11$10K−1.1% of holding+12.0%−43.9%11,063Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Costanza KellyofficerSale10,243 @ $86.63$887K−7.6% of holding−13.4%−60.0%125,347Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale4,954 @ $94.46$468K−1.4% of holding−23.5%−67.8%357,665Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorSale4,394 @ $95.36$419K−1.2% of holding−23.5%−67.8%353,271Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-27Schulman BrettdirectorSale1,644 @ $124.47$205K−0.2% of holding−18.7%−37.0%774,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorGift16,500308,130Form 4
2026-09-09Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorGift16,50016,500Form 4
2026-08-13Thomas Amiee LynndirectorAward / grant1,8211,821Form 4
2026-06-22Shanahan Lauri MdirectorAward / grant1,8819,955Form 4
2026-06-22SHAICH RONALD MdirectorAward / grant1,8819,955Form 4
2026-06-22WHITE JAMES DdirectorAward / grant1,8817,455Form 4
2026-06-22Felt BenjamindirectorAward / grant1,8819,955Form 4
2026-06-22Bosserman DaviddirectorAward / grant1,881120,918Form 4
2026-06-22Amouyal PhilippedirectorAward / grant1,88119,955Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise3,75013,074Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise3,7509,324Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise1,8755,574Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise6253,699Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise1,8750Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise3,7500Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise3,7501,875Form 4
2026-06-18KOCHEVAR KARENdirectorOption exercise6256,875Form 4
2026-06-15Tolivar Tricia K.officerAward / grant283235,214Form 4
2026-06-12Phillips Adam DavidofficerOption exercise2,76412,269Form 4
2026-06-12Phillips Adam DavidofficerOption exercise2,7645,529Form 4
2026-05-21Phillips Adam DavidofficerOption exercise5,18114,686Form 4
2026-05-21Phillips Adam DavidofficerOption exercise5,1812,589Form 4
2026-02-26Costanza KellyofficerOption exercise31,803155,663Form 4
2026-02-26Tolivar Tricia K.officerAward / grant7,966239,900Form 4
2026-02-26Schulman BrettdirectorAward / grant29,060831,843Form 4
2026-02-26Costanza KellyofficerAward / grant4,721123,860Form 4
2026-02-26Costanza KellyofficerOption exercise31,8030Form 4
2026-02-26Phillips Adam DavidofficerAward / grant1,07011,505Form 4
2026-02-26Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerAward / grant3,83652,958Form 4
2026-02-26Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorAward / grant4,721336,926Form 4
2025-12-15Bertram Kenneth RobertofficerAward / grant4751,190Form 4
2025-11-10Schulman BrettdirectorOption exercise22,650814,968Form 4
2025-11-10Schulman BrettdirectorOption exercise14,007828,975Form 4
2025-11-10Schulman BrettdirectorOption exercise14,0070Form 4
2025-11-10Schulman BrettdirectorOption exercise22,650349,921Form 4
2025-09-18Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorGift16,00016,000Form 4
2025-09-18Xenohristos TheodorosdirectorGift16,000334,209Form 4
2025-06-20SHAICH RONALD MdirectorAward / grant1,7678,074Form 4
2025-06-20WHITE JAMES DdirectorAward / grant1,7675,574Form 4
2025-06-20Felt BenjamindirectorAward / grant1,7678,074Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.