Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.34 · now $2.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CATO has typically landed between $1.92 and $2.84 — a range of −17.8% to +21.3% from the issuance price $2.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CATO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.28 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.12–$2.43
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.92–$2.84
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-10-31 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-29 | −51.4% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-05 | −51.4% | −51.4% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-18 | +64.5% | −0.4% | +67.4% |
| 2025-08-07 | +64.5% | −2.8% | +64.5% |
| 2025-08-11 | +62.7% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
6 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | PATRICK BAILEY W | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 42,106 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | HENSON THOMAS B | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 43,094 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | KENNEDY, III BRYAN F | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 39,302 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | STOWE DANIEL HARDING | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 45,440 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | DAVIES PAMELA LEWIS | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 28,438 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | Drew Theresa J | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 24,809 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.