Issued 2026-09-16 at $782.72 · now $782.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAT has typically landed between $691.68 and $917.03 — a range of −11.6% to +17.2% from the issuance price $782.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($782.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $782.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $782.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $800.8 (+2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $749.75–$851.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $691.68–$917.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +3.5% |
| 2008-09-24 | −42.2% | −42.2% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-09 | +57.9% | −0.3% | +58.3% |
| 2009-07-10 | +56.4% | +0.0% | +58.8% |
| 2009-07-08 | +56.1% | −0.2% | +58.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$194.08
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$616.13
- Analyst target · range $658.00–$1,218$845.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$782.72
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 6,135 @ $807.41 | $5.0M | −10.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,518 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 5,035 @ $811.31 | $4.1M | −11.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 4,831 @ $813.72 | $3.9M | −12.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,555 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 3,382 @ $806.31 | $2.7M | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 3,041 @ $810.31 | $2.5M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,701 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 2,639 @ $808.20 | $2.1M | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 2,137 @ $809.08 | $1.7M | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,742 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 1,351 @ $805.36 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 63,035 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 1,280 @ $812.09 | $1.0M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,386 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 750 @ $803.39 | $603K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 64,906 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 540 @ $801.10 | $433K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,936 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 520 @ $803.86 | $418K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 64,386 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 480 @ $800.19 | $384K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,476 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 280 @ $802.10 | $225K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,656 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,302 @ $908.76 | $2.1M | −4.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,259 @ $905.73 | $2.0M | −3.7% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,787 @ $904.70 | $1.6M | −2.9% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,605 @ $911.92 | $1.5M | −3.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,825 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,568 @ $909.70 | $1.4M | −2.9% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,491 @ $906.73 | $1.4M | −2.6% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,191 @ $907.98 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 402 @ $910.65 | $366K | −0.8% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 3,546 @ $909.46 | $3.2M | −6.3% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,650 @ $910.24 | $2.4M | −5.1% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,825 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Schaupp William E | officer | Sale | 360 @ $906.00 | $326K | −40.4% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 15,440 @ $916.75 | $14.2M | −24.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 843 @ $917.73 | $774K | −1.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | BONFIELD ANDREW R J | officer | Sale | 15,674 @ $918.71 | $14.4M | −22.8% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 14,470 @ $922.55 | $13.3M | −13.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 9,752 @ $923.47 | $9.0M | −10.2% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 8,802 @ $926.23 | $8.2M | −15.9% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 350 @ $926.83 | $324K | −0.8% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Shurman Rodney Michael | officer | Sale | 5,152 @ $903.14 | $4.7M | −62.9% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Shurman Rodney Michael | officer | Sale | 487 @ $903.55 | $440K | −16.1% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Kaiser Jason | officer | Sale | 5,642 @ $883.03 | $5.0M | −37.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | MacLennan David | director | Purchase | 250 @ $876.84 | $219K | +3.1% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 800 @ $718.44 | $575K | −2.2% of holding | +5.2% | −0.3% | 36,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 585 @ $719.39 | $421K | −1.6% of holding | +5.2% | −0.3% | 35,778 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 575 @ $720.10 | $414K | −1.6% of holding | +5.2% | −0.3% | 35,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 420 @ $717.01 | $301K | −1.1% of holding | +5.2% | −0.3% | 37,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Sale | 120 @ $721.00 | $87K | −0.3% of holding | +5.2% | −0.3% | 35,083 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Shurman Rodney Michael | officer | Sale | 2,278 @ $759.61 | $1.7M | −61.2% of holding | −1.2% | −4.9% | 1,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Shurman Rodney Michael | officer | Sale | 1,764 @ $763.39 | $1.3M | −55.1% of holding | −6.2% | −2.6% | 1,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Schaupp William E | officer | Sale | 972 @ $764.20 | $743K | −54.1% of holding | −6.2% | −2.6% | 824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 7,891 @ $776.90 | $6.1M | −14.5% of holding | −7.7% | +0.4% | 46,643 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Kaiser Jason | officer | Sale | 1,690 @ $776.70 | $1.3M | −16.3% of holding | −5.9% | −1.2% | 8,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 12,507 @ $767.08 | $9.6M | −12.8% of holding | −6.2% | −2.3% | 84,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 22,656 @ $720.11 | $16.3M | −22.1% of holding | +0.6% | +3.2% | 79,953 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 6,033 @ $722.15 | $4.4M | −12.8% of holding | +0.6% | +3.2% | 41,151 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 9,223 @ $704.42 | $6.5M | −9.6% of holding | +0.4% | +11.7% | 86,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 6,817 @ $705.70 | $4.8M | −7.9% of holding | +0.4% | +11.7% | 79,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 30 @ $706.28 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | +11.7% | 79,953 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 20,145 @ $680.76 | $13.7M | −27.7% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 52,501 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | De Lange Bob | director | Sale | 15,977 @ $682.99 | $10.9M | −16.7% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 79,953 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Sale | 10,671 @ $680.45 | $7.3M | −20.6% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 41,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 7,411 @ $680.11 | $5.0M | −14.6% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 43,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,994 @ $681.69 | $2.0M | −5.7% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 49,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,761 @ $682.84 | $1.9M | −5.6% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 46,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 2,258 @ $683.90 | $1.5M | −4.8% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 44,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Sale | 1,431 @ $680.11 | $973K | −1.9% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 72,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
202 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Option exercise | 44,403 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Option exercise | 44,403 | 78,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,002 | 66,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Award / grant | 19 | 11,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kaiser Jason | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 5,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 5,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 5,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Award / grant | 18 | 11,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kaiser Jason | officer | Award / grant | 10 | 5,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 5,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 5,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MacLennan David | director | Award / grant | 22 | 476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Award / grant | 16 | 12,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 6,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Kaiser Jason | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 5,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fish James C Jr | director | Award / grant | 211 | 3,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Johnson Gerald | director | Award / grant | 211 | 3,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KEENE NAZZIC S | director | Award / grant | 211 | 728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WILKINS RAYFORD JR | director | Award / grant | 211 | 8,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MacLennan David | director | Award / grant | 211 | 8,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Marks Judith Fran | director | Award / grant | 211 | 1,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SCHWAB SUSAN C | director | Award / grant | 211 | 6,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | REED DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 211 | 13,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Award / grant | 18 | 11,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 5,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Option exercise | 16,078 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Option exercise | 16,078 | 65,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,473 | 62,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Option exercise | 7,900 | 57,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Option exercise | 7,900 | 16,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Johnson Denise C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,704 | 56,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Option exercise | 21,403 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Option exercise | 21,403 | 67,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fassino Anthony D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,120 | 62,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Creed Joseph E | officer | Withheld for tax | 574 | 34,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Pambianchi Christine M | officer | Withheld for tax | 224 | 3,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 515 | 17,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Epley Kyle Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 1,394 | 1,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | BONFIELD ANDREW R J | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,380 | 68,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | De Lange Bob | director | Option exercise | 28,105 | 114,134 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $15–50K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-19 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2026-02-15 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-25 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.