CARRCarrier Global CorporationIndustrials · Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.26 · now $54.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CARR has typically landed between $47.43 and $62.71 — a range of −12.6% to +15.6% from the issuance price $54.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,611 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CARR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$47.43worst · -12.6%$62.71best · +15.6%
  • now $54.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $54.03 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.72–$57.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $47.43–$62.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,611 windows spanning 2020-03-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-03-30−19.3%−19.3%+0.0%
2025-07-23−18.3%−18.5%+1.4%
2025-07-25−18.2%−19.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+48.5%+0.0%+48.5%
2020-05-06+44.7%+0.0%+44.7%
2020-05-05+42.0%+0.0%+42.0%

1,611 overlapping windows · 2020-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$57.2B
market cap
$1.54
EPS (TTM)
44.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$21.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.92
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $54.26$38.70$83.06
  • DCF (intrinsic)$41.76
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$47.21
  • Analyst target · range $62.00–$80.00$75.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$54.26

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.8%
n=6
Feb
33%
−0.5%
n=6
Mar
67%
+1.5%
n=6
Apr
57%
+0.7%
n=7
May
71%
+4.9%
n=7
Jun
86%
+6.6%
n=7
Jul
71%
+8.0%
n=7
Aug
43%
+0.4%
n=7
Sep
29%
−3.6%
n=7
Oct
67%
+0.0%
n=6
Nov
83%
+6.1%
n=6
Dec
33%
−1.8%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$76$502026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $750.0M — Viessmann Maximilian2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Gitlin David L.2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $750.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Viessmann Maximilian — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed same daydirector Gitlin David L. — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Viessmann MaximiliandirectorSale12,094,823 @ $62.01$750.0M−24.2% of holding+12.3%not yet — horizon still open37,979,286Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Gitlin David L.directorPurchase19,300 @ $52.62$1.0M+3.7% of holding−3.2%+6.6%534,474Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05Viessmann MaximiliandirectorSale4,267,425 @ $70.30$300.0M−7.3% of holding−0.0%−39.2%54,341,534Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14Crockett KyleofficerSale18,945 @ $65.18$1.2M−80.6% of holding+11.3%−3.4%4,573Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Barua NeildirectorAward / grant2,8312,831Form 4
2026-07-01Dryden Edward C.officerWithheld for tax2,1479,358Form 4
2026-07-01Dryden Edward C.officerOption exercise6,89411,505Form 4
2026-07-01Dryden Edward C.officerOption exercise6,8940Form 4
2026-05-01Pandya GaurangofficerWithheld for tax21,54649,890Form 4
2026-05-01Pandya GaurangofficerOption exercise50,6160Form 4
2026-05-01Pandya GaurangofficerOption exercise50,61671,436Form 4
2026-04-15HOLLEY CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant6,14942,960Form 4
2026-04-15STORY SUSAN NdirectorAward / grant5,80728,824Form 4
2026-04-15GREISCH JOHN JdirectorAward / grant3,94560,763Form 4
2026-04-15WILSON VIRGINIA MdirectorAward / grant3,79237,122Form 4
2026-04-15TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant3,63837,034Form 4
2026-04-15MCNAMARA MICHAEL MdirectorAward / grant3,63843,220Form 4
2026-04-15MILES AMY EdirectorAward / grant3,4848,328Form 4
2026-04-15Viessmann MaximiliandirectorAward / grant3,33011,856Form 4
2026-04-15GARNIER JEAN PIERREdirectorAward / grant3,330139,825Form 4
2026-04-01Gierges Michael LotfyofficerWithheld for tax1,2964,024Form 4
2026-04-01Gierges Michael LotfyofficerOption exercise5,3205,320Form 4
2026-04-01Gierges Michael LotfyofficerOption exercise5,3200Form 4
2026-02-09Heim ThomasofficerAward / grant5050Form 4
2026-02-09Heim ThomasofficerOption exercise500Form 4
2026-02-09Heim ThomasofficerOption exercise5013,847Form 4
2026-02-01Gitlin David L.directorWithheld for tax35,797589,549Form 4
2026-02-01Goris Patrick P.directorWithheld for tax16,124128,657Form 4
2026-02-01Villeneuve NadiaofficerWithheld for tax3,809112,522Form 4
2026-02-01Pandya GaurangofficerWithheld for tax1,73520,820Form 4
2026-02-01Agrawal AjaydirectorWithheld for tax1,502115,657Form 4
2026-02-01Campbell FrancescaofficerWithheld for tax5816,940Form 4
2026-02-01Gitlin David L.directorAward / grant90,872625,346Form 4
2026-02-01Agrawal AjaydirectorAward / grant5,705117,159Form 4
2026-02-01Heim ThomasofficerOption exercise13,79713,797Form 4
2026-02-01Heim ThomasofficerOption exercise13,7970Form 4
2026-02-01Villeneuve NadiaofficerAward / grant15,194116,331Form 4
2026-02-01Goris Patrick P.directorAward / grant40,750144,781Form 4
2026-02-01Pandya GaurangofficerAward / grant5,70522,555Form 4
2026-02-01Campbell FrancescaofficerAward / grant1,9587,521Form 4
2026-01-28Gitlin David L.directorAward / grant438,195438,195Form 4
2026-01-28Pandya GaurangofficerAward / grant97,29097,290Form 4
2026-01-28Agrawal AjaydirectorAward / grant39,56039,560Form 4
2026-01-28Gierges Michael LotfyofficerAward / grant66,87566,875Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-05-01$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-05-01$15–50K
Rick LarsenHousepurchase2026-04-152026-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2025-11-222025-10-10$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.