CARL · TickerCove

CARLCarlsmed, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.31 · now $15.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CARL has typically landed between $12.24 and $20.42 — a range of −20.1% to +33.4% from the issuance price $15.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

269 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-07-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.31 · 79% of range

$8.83 low$16.99 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 15.4%

−20.1%worst (p90)+33.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CARL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.31 (+0.0%)
typical $15.45 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $14.27–$16.62
90% range $12.24–$20.42

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 269 windows spanning 2025-07-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-02-27	−36.7%	−36.7%	+0.0%
2026-02-26	−33.7%	−33.7%	+0.1%
2026-03-02	−32.3%	−32.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-22	+49.7%	−2.0%	+49.7%
2026-07-24	+46.3%	+0.0%	+52.8%
2026-07-23	+45.9%	−1.8%	+50.0%

269 overlapping windows · 2025-07-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+0.6%

n=1

Feb

100%

+17.3%

n=1

Mar

−37.9%

n=1

Apr

−1.8%

n=1

May

100%

+28.5%

n=1

Jun

−9.1%

n=1

Jul

100%

+21.3%

n=1

Aug

50%

+12.0%

n=2

Sep

50%

−2.7%

n=2

Oct

−3.7%

n=1

Nov

100%

+26.3%

n=1

Dec

−24.1%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-02	Cordonnier Michael	director	Sale	197,855 @ $13.29	$2.6M	−12.7% of holding	−27.3%	+9.5%	1,356,646	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-24	B CAPITAL GROUP MANAGEMENT, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,333,333 @ $15.00	$20.0M	+36.2% of holding	−11.5%	−17.7%	5,013,839	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Purchase	1,333,333 @ $15.00	$20.0M	+36.2% of holding	−11.5%	−17.7%	5,013,839	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Purchase	466,666 @ $15.00	$7.0M	+2692.4% of holding	−11.5%	−17.7%	483,999	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24	YOUNG PHILIP M	director	Purchase	53,333 @ $15.00	$800K	ownership Δ n/a	−11.5%	−17.7%	53,333	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24	Sidow Kevin	director	Purchase	13,333 @ $15.00	$200K	+28.8% of holding	−11.5%	−17.7%	59,566	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24	YOUNG PHILIP M	director	Purchase	6,666 @ $15.00	$100K	+23.1% of holding	−11.5%	−17.7%	35,566	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

166 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	Bertolini Jeffrey	officer	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-03	YOUNG PHILIP M	director	Award / grant	13,698	31,031	Form 4
2026-06-03	OBOYLE KEVIN C	director	Award / grant	13,698	31,031	Form 4
2026-06-03	Sidow Kevin	director	Award / grant	13,698	73,264	Form 4
2026-06-03	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Award / grant	13,698	497,697	Form 4
2026-03-03	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	33,264	1,550,477	Form 4
2026-03-03	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	160,567	1,517,213	Form 4
2026-03-03	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	33,264	191,692	Form 4
2026-03-03	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	160,567	0	Form 4
2026-03-02	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	197,855	1,554,501	Form 4
2026-03-02	Cordonnier Michael	director	Option exercise	197,855	160,567	Form 4
2026-01-28	Durall William Scott	officer	Award / grant	44,977	44,977	Form 4
2026-01-28	Casey Niall	director	Award / grant	44,977	982,562	Form 4
2026-01-28	Cordonnier Michael	director	Award / grant	117,316	1,356,646	Form 4
2026-01-28	Greenstein Leonard M.	officer	Award / grant	44,977	188,346	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	41,876	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	1,117,743	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	2,948,794	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	825,135	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	149,655	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	531,877	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Presidio Management Group XII, L.L.C.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	26,993	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	531,877	4,305,806	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	149,655	149,655	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	41,876	191,531	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	26,993	218,524	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	1,117,743	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	2,376,472	2,376,472	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	931,452	931,452	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	1,445,020	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	2,235,486	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	1,445,020	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	931,452	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Mittendorff Robert II	director	Conversion	931,452	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	Sidow Kevin	director	Option exercise	28,900	28,900	Form 4
2025-07-24	Sidow Kevin	director	Conversion	28,900	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	1,117,743	1,117,743	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	2,948,794	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	825,135	0	Form 4
2025-07-24	ROOT JONATHAN D	director	Conversion	531,877	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i