Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.70 · now $34.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CARG has typically landed between $27.55 and $41.38 — a range of −20.6% to +19.2% from the issuance price $34.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,222 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CARG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.56 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.89–$38.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.55–$41.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,222 windows spanning 2017-10-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +3.4% |
| 2022-04-11 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +5.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-01-27 | +65.2% | +0.0% | +65.2% |
| 2022-01-26 | +56.0% | −1.5% | +56.0% |
| 2020-11-18 | +53.7% | +0.0% | +53.7% |
2,222 overlapping windows · 2017-10-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+4.5%
n=9
Feb
11%
−2.5%
n=9
Mar
44%
−2.0%
n=9
Apr
44%
−3.1%
n=9
May
67%
+1.4%
n=9
Jun
67%
+3.9%
n=9
Jul
78%
+7.0%
n=9
Aug
44%
−3.4%
n=9
Sep
44%
−2.1%
n=9
Oct
50%
−1.8%
n=8
Nov
67%
+8.1%
n=9
Dec
56%
+1.9%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $36.50 | $365K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 465,349 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 8,957 @ $38.00 | $340K | −6.3% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,737 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 17,151 @ $37.00 | $635K | −13.5% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Schwartz Greg M | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $36.07 | $361K | −53.4% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Trevisan Jason | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $41.06 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 674,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 6,205 @ $37.08 | $230K | −7.2% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Sale | 3,824 @ $35.03 | $134K | −1.6% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,146 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 3,533 @ $36.06 | $127K | −3.8% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 567 @ $35.03 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 2,499 @ $34.56 | $86K | −2.6% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 3,532 @ $34.08 | $120K | −3.5% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 3,367 @ $32.61 | $110K | −3.3% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,694 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 165 @ $33.06 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 7,881 @ $29.52 | $233K | −7.1% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 191 @ $30.10 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 5,445 @ $33.04 | $180K | −3.9% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Sale | 4,341 @ $33.04 | $143K | −1.7% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 567 @ $33.04 | $19K | −0.6% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,432 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 2,499 @ $35.61 | $89K | −2.5% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kaufer Stephen | director | Purchase | 30,766 @ $32.50 | $1.0M | +10.5% of holding | +6.8% | −5.4% | 323,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 1,645 @ $32.21 | $53K | −1.8% of holding | +5.0% | +2.8% | 91,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 5,190 @ $37.36 | $194K | −5.4% of holding | −23.3% | −18.6% | 90,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Sale | 5,056 @ $37.36 | $189K | −2.5% of holding | −23.3% | −18.6% | 194,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 524 @ $37.36 | $20K | −1.0% of holding | −23.3% | −18.6% | 49,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 2,358 @ $38.10 | $90K | −4.5% of holding | −17.5% | −17.8% | 50,466 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Trevisan Jason | director | Sale | 16,548 @ $39.02 | $646K | −2.6% of holding | −13.0% | −21.9% | 630,483 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Trevisan Jason | director | Sale | 8,452 @ $39.04 | $330K | −1.3% of holding | −13.3% | −28.1% | 647,031 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $38.39 | $384K | −2.4% of holding | −12.7% | −32.3% | 400,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Trevisan Jason | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $37.00 | $740K | −3.0% of holding | +2.7% | −34.1% | 655,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 1,346 @ $35.68 | $48K | −1.3% of holding | +5.5% | −34.7% | 99,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Trevisan Jason | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $35.00 | $525K | −2.2% of holding | +7.4% | −23.4% | 675,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Schwartz Greg M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $35.06 | $175K | −30.5% of holding | +7.4% | −23.4% | 11,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.98 | $350K | −2.4% of holding | +2.6% | −1.4% | 410,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 1,228 @ $34.98 | $43K | −1.3% of holding | +2.6% | −1.4% | 95,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.92 | $349K | −2.3% of holding | −0.9% | −2.6% | 420,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 4,167 @ $37.70 | $157K | −3.9% of holding | −10.0% | −8.1% | 102,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Sale | 3,789 @ $37.70 | $143K | −1.8% of holding | −10.0% | −8.1% | 204,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 567 @ $37.70 | $21K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | −8.1% | 54,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Sale | 9,998 @ $36.88 | $369K | −15.4% of holding | −10.8% | −9.9% | 54,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $36.08 | $361K | −2.2% of holding | −4.5% | −7.2% | 441,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 1,346 @ $34.05 | $46K | −1.2% of holding | +3.3% | −11.2% | 112,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 1,228 @ $32.10 | $39K | −1.2% of holding | +10.1% | −16.5% | 100,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $32.29 | $323K | −2.2% of holding | +6.2% | −10.9% | 451,821 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Hallowell Zachary Emerson | officer | Sale | 1,733 @ $33.84 | $59K | −1.5% of holding | −5.7% | −7.1% | 117,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $33.88 | $339K | −2.1% of holding | −9.4% | −7.8% | 461,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 6,154 @ $35.00 | $215K | −6.2% of holding | −17.9% | +0.6% | 92,807 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 1,325 @ $35.00 | $46K | −1.3% of holding | −17.9% | +0.6% | 104,322 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Hallowell Zachary Emerson | officer | Sale | 4,369 @ $33.09 | $145K | −3.5% of holding | −5.5% | +3.4% | 121,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 4,168 @ $33.09 | $138K | −3.5% of holding | −5.5% | +3.4% | 115,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Sale | 3,789 @ $33.09 | $125K | −1.7% of holding | −5.5% | +3.4% | 216,877 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Zales Samuel | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.09 | $311K | −2.0% of holding | +2.0% | +9.1% | 483,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $33.00 | $44K | −1.3% of holding | +0.5% | −1.1% | 101,403 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Sale | 1,346 @ $32.39 | $44K | −1.1% of holding | +3.6% | −4.1% | 125,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Zamora Javier | officer | Sale | 12,265 @ $31.37 | $385K | −10.7% of holding | −0.4% | −2.9% | 102,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Sale | 5,246 @ $31.37 | $165K | −4.7% of holding | −0.4% | −2.9% | 107,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Steinert Langley | director | Sale | 4,119 @ $31.88 | $131K | −0.8% of holding | −0.4% | −2.9% | 495,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Steinert Langley | director | Sale | 473 @ $31.88 | $15K | −99.6% of holding | −0.4% | −2.9% | 2 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Steinert Langley | director | Sale | 20,639 @ $31.28 | $646K | −4.0% of holding | +2.1% | −1.9% | 499,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Steinert Langley | director | Sale | 2,292 @ $31.28 | $72K | −82.8% of holding | +2.1% | −1.9% | 475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Steinert Langley | director | Sale | 20,639 @ $31.00 | $640K | −3.8% of holding | +2.7% | −1.3% | 520,354 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,300 | 142,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Zamora Javier | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,880 | 86,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Trevisan Jason | director | Withheld for tax | 21,509 | 675,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Steinert Langley | director | Withheld for tax | 12,654 | 897,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zales Samuel | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,526 | 452,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,128 | 236,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,550 | 126,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zamora Javier | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,119 | 91,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,106 | 144,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,192 | 91,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zales Samuel | officer | Award / grant | 22,548 | 475,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,039 | 95,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Steinert Langley | director | Conversion | 74,998 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Steinert Langley | director | Conversion | 377,639 | 12,144,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Steinert Langley | director | Conversion | 74,998 | 1,618,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Steinert Langley | director | Conversion | 377,639 | 909,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gupta Manik | director | Award / grant | 7,339 | 24,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | HICKOK LORI A | director | Award / grant | 7,339 | 54,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kaufer Stephen | director | Award / grant | 7,339 | 331,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Schwartz Greg M | director | Award / grant | 7,339 | 18,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Conine Steven | director | Award / grant | 7,339 | 60,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,396 | 147,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Zamora Javier | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,142 | 111,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Trevisan Jason | director | Withheld for tax | 21,509 | 827,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Steinert Langley | director | Withheld for tax | 12,315 | 532,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zales Samuel | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,525 | 464,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,094 | 250,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,702 | 139,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zamora Javier | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,604 | 112,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,900 | 148,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,192 | 96,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,039 | 100,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Elshareef Ismail | officer | Award / grant | 58,574 | 150,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Quinn Matthew Todd | officer | Award / grant | 65,082 | 258,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Steinert Langley | director | Award / grant | 81,353 | 544,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Trevisan Jason | director | Award / grant | 227,790 | 848,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Sarnoff Dafna | officer | Award / grant | 55,320 | 145,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hanson Jennifer Ladd | officer | Award / grant | 52,066 | 101,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Zales Samuel | officer | Award / grant | 81,353 | 475,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Zamora Javier | officer | Award / grant | 32,541 | 114,879 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.